[rdaner]

We all could bet money right now that the tunnel ain't happening. But I don't understand the long game for being so persistent with this tunnel. I'm trying to figure it out.

He has a better chance of extending the Gardiner east, even with all the expropriation cost involved. It will still be cheaper than a tunnel under the 401.

The only people that won't like it are residents that were never going to vote for him, those in the beaches area. And the people that will love it will be Scarborough and anyone in Durham that will vote for Doug anyways.

I'm actually surprised he's not advocating for the Gardiner east extension. He will give Scarborough another highway, while not losing votes. If anything, he'll gain or secure existing voters out east, east of Victoria Park. And still be cheaper than the tunnel.

Heck, this is extreme, but even a Richview Expressway, bring that back up. Those midtown residents weren't going to vote Doug anyways. All while relieving or giving and alternative to the 401.

These options are beyond fantasy!

 

[afransen]

It really depends on how far the bluff goes. The only caveat to the 407's insane return on investment for those folks is the Government finally finding a way to claw it back. People have long speculated on how, but this might be Ford donning the Trump hat. A 401 tunnel is just one more thing making the 407 slightly more redundant; we are planning a Transitway along it, the 413 cuts into traffic on the western half, and now this.

Now, credit where due... Would I buy news headlines for these things as a fund manager? No. But if an EA were to be completed, and the 413 just happens to be u/c at the time, it would be negligent of me to not at least check the numbers again.

Ford only really needs to make this seem like a better alternative to some drawn-out legal fiasco he's willing to initiate. That would cost the 407's owners time, money, and scariest of all, possibly the entire highway without compensation. To call that sort of bluff, you would actually have to risk entering the courts.

A 401 tunnel won't be completed inside of 20 years. Most of the present value of the 407 is the toll revenue they will collect over the next 20 years. You can't bluff them into selling the 407 lease. You would actually have to commit to building the tunnel.

 

[jje1000]

A 401 tunnel won't be completed inside of 20 years. Most of the present value of the 407 is the toll revenue they will collect over the next 20 years. You can't bluff them into selling the 407 lease. You would actually have to commit to building the tunnel.

What about just subsidizing part of the toll? I would imagine that would be the path that requires the least money or concrete.

 

[ericmacm]

What about just subsidizing part of the toll? I would imagine that would be the path that requires the least money or concrete.

The issue that I see with toll subsidization (all or in part) is one of a potential cost runaway effect. While lowering the toll cost has the potential to increase the number of users of the 407, more users means more toll subsidies. If the province were to subsidize 50%, as revenues currently stand, they would be paying 407 ETR approximately 600-750M/year. If the user count were to increase due to tolls being cheaper (lets just say 2x for the sake of example), that subsidy payment then becomes $1.2-1.5B/year. This is a very expensive payment for what is ultimately nothing in return. A subsidy contract with 407 ETR would also probably have the province wanting to include limits on future toll increases to control subsidy costs so 407 ETR can't decide to just arbitrarily jack up the price to receive maximum subsidy, which 407 ETR would probably not agree to since it would impede growth in revenue generation.

 

[Sunnyside]

A 401 tunnel won't be completed inside of 20 years. Most of the present value of the 407 is the toll revenue they will collect over the next 20 years. You can't bluff them into selling the 407 lease. You would actually have to commit to building the tunnel.

Are we doubting Ontario's ability to cancel projects?

More seriously, I didn't mean my original comment as a concrete explanation- it's something I'd think a government might want to do if it could, though. Do we know *for certain* there is no way to force a re-neg/purchase on the 407 in general?

Still, I also think this government is one that loves to talk and say a whole lot, yet consistently walks an entirely different walk. At this point Ford is probably going to be re-elected; what he does in the beginning of this term will tell us what his real priority is with this junk. unfortunately, it's the kind of thing that makes a lot of suburbanites go "they won't actually do it, but if they did it would be amazing". It's a slam dunk for Ford to keep talking about it. Isn't it convenient his browser-made transit fantasy map, GO 2.0, has a nice ring to it?

 

[RapidTransit]

These options are beyond fantasy!

As long as there discussion about this tunnel, anything is up for discussion.

It's actually comical that he's proposing this tunnel, and still heading towards a super majority.

 

[rbt]

Do we know *for certain* there is no way to force a re-neg/purchase on the 407 in general?

Yes. The contract itself is iron-clad. Both Liberals and PCs have put non-trivial resources into looking for an escape from the contract.

In addition, various legislative tricks to remove rights of the 407 ownership won't work simply because the majority owner (Federal Government via the Canada Pension Plan) has many options to make themselves whole again such as garnishing health-care transfers to the Ontario government.

 

[afransen]

Yes. The contract itself is iron-clad. Both Liberals and PCs have put non-trivial resources into looking for an escape from the contract.

In addition, various legislative tricks to remove rights of the 407 ownership won't work simply because the majority owner (Federal Government via the Canada Pension Plan) has many options to make themselves whole again such as garnishing health-care transfers to the Ontario government.

It's not quite right that the cpp is controlled by the federal government. It is arms length. However, other provinces' will be unhappy if Ontario steals a big chunk of their pension assets.

 

[rbt]

It's not quite right that the cpp is controlled by the federal government. It is arms length. However, other provinces' will be unhappy if Ontario steals a big chunk of their pension assets.

Yeah, I wasn't quite technically correct. I intended to make it clear the federal government, with full support of federal court and other provinces, could and would claw-back any loss due to underhanded legislative efforts by Ontario.

 

[innsertnamehere]

As long as there discussion about this tunnel, anything is up for discussion.

It's actually comical that he's proposing this tunnel, and still heading towards a super majority.

This tunnel remains a gigantic question mark.

It's scale is the biggest problem - we don't even know it's approximate size. There are global precedents for decently large motorway tunnels - the question of it's practical achievability is one of scale. Is it a tunnel from the 427 to the 404? That isn't as wild as it may initially seem, albeit still ambitious, but no more ambitious than projects like GO expansion. Is it a tunnel from Meadowvale to Pickering, with branches up to Markham and Brampton? That's impractically large.

 

[DSCToronto]

This tunnel remains a gigantic question mark.

It's scale is the biggest problem - we don't even know it's approximate size. There are global precedents for decently large motorway tunnels - the question of it's practical achievability is one of scale. Is it a tunnel from the 427 to the 404? That isn't as wild as it may initially seem, albeit still ambitious, but no more ambitious than projects like GO expansion. Is it a tunnel from Meadowvale to Pickering, with branches up to Markham and Brampton? That's impractically large.

I am not sure it is worth discussing the fine details of this 'pie (or tunnel) in the sky'. We are unable to open a rather simple LRT tunnel after many years of digging and, apparently, planning, so ..... I suggest we need to add this (plus the mid-Toronto GO tracks) to the fantasy transit group!

 

[Bordercollie]

I don't think you guys realize that the EA alone will exceed Rob Fords new four year term.

Nevertheless shovels in the ground before 2030.

We need a solution today not 2035.

 

[Cambry Ardship]

What would even happen to the excavated material from a project of this scale? It's enough fill to basically build an artificial ski mountain from scratch, right?

 

[Jonny5]

What would even happen to the excavated material from a project of this scale? It's enough fill to basically build an artificial ski mountain from scratch, right?

Build an extension to the island airport for a monorail connection to the Ontario Place Spa!

 

[Amare]

What would even happen to the excavated material from a project of this scale? It's enough fill to basically build an artificial ski mountain from scratch, right?

It's something none of us will have to worry about, because this fantasy dream tunnel will never be built in any lifetime.