Less than Ford is making out to be??
A simple 2-lane bus tunnel isn't going to relieve car congestion - you simply don't see that many buses on that stretch of the 401. Currently there's 14 lanes. If they have any hope of doing anything, they need to put about 10 lanes in a non-stop tunnel - perhaps with a single interchange for 400 northbound.
The ventilation requirements alone will be extreme.
By less, I meant less than Pickering to Milton, or Mississauga, or any additional distance really- Ford has floated this iirc. I also did not mean only for transit- you would obviously have more lanes overall. I have a hard time seeing 10 though; I personally imagined 6, in some sort of stacked configuration if you use a big enough TBM.... but
@ShonTron got to that.
I will argue that buses don't use the 401 because they can't do so reliably... not because there Isn't demand for it. The 407 is further out yet gets higher use as a speedy trunk- the 401 would become this and then some.
Design-wise, I don't know what to think about the 400. The Bradford bypass should theoretically take a good amount of extra-regional traffic, but there's a lot between that and the 401.
I did just remember that you'd probably want/need to tunnel to connect the 401's two local/express sections however, so add a little distance for that too.
It's still very complicated. One, you still need a lot of ventilation, and you need escape routes. You need to tunnel under the Humber and Don Rivers, with the West Don Valley being very deep. That's also a lot of cement and steel. Think about the necessary width of two three-lane tubes compared to the width of a subway tunnel. Remember too how the Scarborough Subway tunnel isn't progressing very well (a single-bore tunnel).
Well...ventilation would be needed in any tunnel scenario. The question is if that adds
that much to the 'base' tunnelling cost, which as you've highlighted, faces its own challenges. I am glad you brought the subway comparison- are we talking meeting or exceeding those kinds of per-km costs, regardless of value engineering options?
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We do have to consider in general what Sydney NSW has managed. While more ambitious, Australian states and Canadian provinces are basically step-siblings; If they found the capacity to do it, Ontario most likely could too (unless engineering issues are that much worse...).