[innsertnamehere]

I'd like to see the traffic projections for when this is completed in 2040 or so, compared to now. I'd be surprised if they are much (if any) lower than now, given the planned increase in population.

At best it stops things from getting as worse as they might - but surely that's not actually getting traffic moving.

What percentage of drivers in the GTA even rely on the 401 between 427 and 404?

I mean that's all we can really hope for at this point I think.

Traffic projections have the 401 operating at basic standstill for the entire day in a few decades as it will be so wildly over capacity.

The tunnel would likely get it so it's only at standstill in rush hours. I don't think anyone is deluded to think you'll be doing 100km//h down the highway at 5pm on a Tuesday.. but there is a wiiiideeee gap between that scenario and how the 401 is currently working and how it will work in the future.

 

[crs1026]

The old saying: When you are in a hole, the first step to solving the problem is to stop digging.

I will likely have surrendered my drivers' license before this tunnel gets built, so I don't have a dog in the race. But the idea of this tunnel actually happening strikes me as lunacy. I'm tolerant of a politician making a one-time dumb promise that gets forgotten, but to see others attempt to give this bad idea substance, and legitimise it by trying to figure out how to do it.... well, I'm not going to add to that body of thought.

A first question would be, when and how does tolling apply. Absolutely no point in adding capacity without imposing an economic stimulus. That's my pre condition to any discussion.

- Paul

 

[nfitz]

I will likely have surrendered my drivers' license before this tunnel gets built, so I don't have a dog in the race. But the idea of this tunnel actually happening strikes me as lunacy. I'm tolerant of a politician making a one-time dumb promise that gets forgotten, but to see others attempt to give this bad idea substance, and legitimise it by trying to figure out how to do it.... well, I'm not going to add to that body of thought.

I don't see anyone doing that, other than the Conservatives. Everyone else has dissed it.

I don't even see anyone here supporting it.

 

[crs1026]

I don't see anyone doing that, other than the Conservatives. Everyone else has dissed it.

I don't even see anyone here supporting it.

No, sorry, I didn't mean UTers.... I was reacting to the Photo Op.

If you have the Premier and two ministers continuing to talk it up, we can assume that they have staff (and maybe consultants) fleshing the idea out and filling out the files. Even that level of activity is wasteful, and gives momentum to the idea.

Maybe they have just turned the Smarttrack napkin over and are using the other side, but my concern is, anything beyond that is unhelpful.



- Paul

 

[nfitz]

If you have the Premier and two ministers continuing to talk it up, we can assume that they have staff (and maybe consultants) fleshing the idea out and filling out the files. Even that level of activity is wasteful, and gives momentum to the idea.

MTO is always looking at various schemes - most of which will never happen. In general that doesn't hurt - and it's not like there was much outcry when 401 expansion from 427 to 404 appeared in the planning documents a couple of years ago.

Though I certainly wasn't expecting underground. I'd assume they'd elevate it. Though as we see on the Gardiner, the maintenance costs are ugly.

 

[jcam]

No, sorry, I didn't mean UTers.... I was reacting to the Photo Op.

If you have the Premier and two ministers continuing to talk it up, we can assume that they have staff (and maybe consultants) fleshing the idea out and filling out the files. Even that level of activity is wasteful, and gives momentum to the idea.

Maybe they have just turned the Smarttrack napkin over and are using the other side, but my concern is, anything beyond that is unhelpful.



- Paul

I was in the room for this..it was pitched as an industry consultation session to get feedback into the feasibility study process, and then the 'surprise visit' was dropped on us mid session.

 

[Bojaxs]

It feels like it was a mistake by Doug to announce his desire to build a tunnel under the 401 before finalizing the purchase of the 407. No doubt the folks at the 407 ETR are now going to do a study to determine how much it would cost to construct a tunnel under the 401 and price the 407 above whatever they determine the cost to be.

 

[chrisw]

It feels like it was a mistake by Doug to announce his desire to build a tunnel under the 401 before finalizing the purchase of the 407. No doubt the folks at the 407 ETR are now going to do a study to determine how much it would cost to construct a tunnel under the 401 and price the 407 above whatever they determine the cost to be.

Not a Ford apologist, but if they actually built the tunnel, it'll lower the future expected cash flows of the 407.

 

[generalcanada]

Not a Ford apologist, but if they actually built the tunnel, it'll lower the future expected cash flows of the 407.

for a few weeks....then induced demand will give them their profits back

 

[Sunnyside]

Not a Ford apologist, but if they actually built the tunnel, it'll lower the future expected cash flows of the 407.

You don’t need to build it to point that out. The tunnel itself might be a bluff for leverage.

Ford probably looked at the cost to buy the 407 as-is (I’ve heard ~$30B) and is negotiating with the threat of a 401 tunnel. Just saying this is a threat: you’re floating destroying most of their assets’ use case and associated value.

The consortium knows our Govs want the 407 back. Instead of trying to ‘take’ it though, Ford’s sowing FUD. He can basically say, “After our 401 tunnel, the 407 will be worthless. Give it to us now for $10B while you still can”. Done. And you don’t actually have to build a thing.

Now… will the consortium bite is up to debate.

 

[guavadelic]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-hwy-401-tunnel-campaign-promise-1.7453508

He's really intent on bankrupting the province.

 

[RapidTransit]

We all could bet money right now that the tunnel ain't happening. But I don't understand the long game for being so persistent with this tunnel. I'm trying to figure it out.

He has a better chance of extending the Gardiner east, even with all the expropriation cost involved. It will still be cheaper than a tunnel under the 401.

The only people that won't like it are residents that were never going to vote for him, those in the beaches area. And the people that will love it will be Scarborough and anyone in Durham that will vote for Doug anyways.

I'm actually surprised he's not advocating for the Gardiner east extension. He will give Scarborough another highway, while not losing votes. If anything, he'll gain or secure existing voters out east, east of Victoria Park. And still be cheaper than the tunnel.

Heck, this is extreme, but even a Richview Expressway, bring that back up. Those midtown residents weren't going to vote Doug anyways. All while relieving or giving and alternative to the 401.

 

[Sunnyside]

We all could bet money right now that the tunnel ain't happening. But I don't understand the long game for being so persistent with this tunnel. I'm trying to figure it out.

He has a better chance of extending the Gardiner east, even with all the expropriation cost involved. It will still be cheaper than a tunnel under the 401.

The only people that won't like it are residents that were never going to vote for him, those in the beaches area. And the people that will love it will be Scarborough and anyone in Durham that will vote for Doug anyways.

I'm actually surprised he's not advocating for the Gardiner east extension. He will give Scarborough another highway, while not losing votes. If anything, he'll gain or secure existing voters out east, east of Victoria Park. And still be cheaper than the tunnel.

Heck, this is extreme, but even a Richview Expressway, bring that back up. Those midtown residents weren't going to vote Doug anyways. All while relieving or giving and alternative to the 401.

As I said in my previous post, the long game may be to get a deal on buying the 407 by scaring the sh*t out of the consortium.

 

[afransen]

As I said in my previous post, the long game may be to get a deal on buying the 407 by scaring the sh*t out of the consortium.

The owners of the 407 are serious, big money asset managers. They are not going to be bluffed into selling the 407 lease for a steep discount based on a pie in the sky plan.

 

[Sunnyside]

The owners of the 407 are serious, big money asset managers. They are not going to be bluffed into selling the 407 lease for a steep discount based on a pie in the sky plan.

It really depends on how far the bluff goes. The only caveat to the 407's insane return on investment for those folks is the Government finally finding a way to claw it back. People have long speculated on how, but this might be Ford donning the Trump hat. A 401 tunnel is just one more thing making the 407 slightly more redundant; we are planning a Transitway along it, the 413 cuts into traffic on the western half, and now this.

Now, credit where due... Would I buy news headlines for these things as a fund manager? No. But if an EA were to be completed, and the 413 just happens to be u/c at the time, it would be negligent of me to not at least check the numbers again.

Ford only really needs to make this seem like a better alternative to some drawn-out legal fiasco he's willing to initiate. That would cost the 407's owners time, money, and scariest of all, possibly the entire highway without compensation. To call that sort of bluff, you would actually have to risk entering the courts.