[Coolibop]

This is no surprise to anyone following the project.

Paywall removed: https://archive.ph/OTMQp

It raises the question why they continue to publish a 2030 completion date, especially considering this represents another instance of slippage for an organization with a poor track record of communicating project goals and adhering to them.

 

[stevensontransit]

This is no surprise to anyone following the project.

Paywall removed: https://archive.ph/OTMQp

so do they still say a 2030 completion date publicly even is 2033 is the internal date

 

[urbanclient]

It raises the question why they continue to publish a 2030 completion date, especially considering this represents another instance of slippage for an organization with a poor track record of communicating project goals and adhering to them.

so do they still say a 2030 completion date publicly even is 2033 is the internal date

Hopes and dreams. Hopes and dreams.

 

[cplchanb]

where is the TBM anyways currently? whats their current estimated breakthrough date?

 

[rbt]

It raises the question why they continue to publish a 2030 completion date, especially considering this represents another instance of slippage for an organization with a poor track record of communicating project goals and adhering to them.

There's an election between now and the extension not opening on time.

Also, would need to believe 2033 won't slip further to announce that date; 2033 might still be too optimistic.

 

[urbanclient]

There's an election between now and the extension not opening on time.

Also, would need to believe 2033 won't slip further to announce that date; 2033 might still be too optimistic.

2033 being too optimistic is right. They were averaging 9 metres per day not too long ago. To do 2900 metres from March 19 to December 31 is 288 days inclusive, or just over 10 metres per day. Peaks of 20 metres per day are meaningless. The average matters.

Reposting this from the Metrolinx catch all thread:

Before today, anyone could've done some napkin math on how fast the TBM was moving given known dates and the progress by those dates. My logic is: every day the TBM is delayed = a day the opening is delayed. I think 2034 is more likely at this point.

May 4, 2026: "TBM Diggy Scardust, operated by Strabag, has completed over 4km of the 6.9km tunnel"
https://www.tunnelsandtunnelling.co...xtension-tunnelling-passes-halfway-milestone/

March 23, 2026: "Despite that setback, the TBM resumed its progress and has averaged roughly 9 metres of excavation daily since September, 2025."
https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2026/03/scarborough-subway-extension-tunnelling-marks-milestone.60632

March 19, 2026:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/making-headway-scarborough-metrolinx-yi0ze/

October, 2021: "The estimated completion date for tunnelling is 2024."
https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/...Upcoming-work-at-extraction-shaft-October.pdf

From the Star article today:

 

[nfitz]

An interesting idea, however I'm not sure where they could have fit a portal for the transition.

They could have put the portal right at the east end of the existing stub tracks, near Kennedy station. It's Scarborough, if we don't elevate here, then we are just pissing money down the toilet (see slso Eglinton West).

 

[Carlodangez]

They could have put the portal right at the east end of the existing stub tracks, near Kennedy station. It's Scarborough, if we don't elevate here, then we are just pissing money down the toilet (see slso Eglinton West).

I mean Toronto has also spent more money than elevating in its tunnelling of places like Leaside.

 

[atakagi1]

This is no surprise to anyone following the project.

Paywall removed: https://archive.ph/OTMQp

Hey everyone. Andy Takagi here, I wrote this piece. Thanks for reading.

I appreciate that not everyone can afford or have access to this reporting. I also need to acknowledge that this kind of work isn't possible without the support of readers and subscribers.
Here's a gift link to the article: https://www.thestar.com/gift-redeem?t=4aac9b83-ac60-49df-80dd-bf571e888a5c
Even reading through a giftlink instead of a paywall bypass helps to keep work like this possible.

I'll try to be more active in posting giftlinks here as well.

 

[81-717]

There's an election between now and the extension not opening on time.

Also, would need to believe 2033 won't slip further to announce that date; 2033 might still be too optimistic.

2033 being too optimistic is right. I think 2034 is more likely at this point.

They should just set the opening date to "when there are enough new trains to run full service on L2 including SSE", giving more incentive to accelerate (rather than drag out) their deliveries.

 

[syn]

This is no surprise to anyone following the project.

Paywall removed: https://archive.ph/OTMQp

Indeed.

I remember when it was a $3 billion, 1 stop extension the suggestion it could balloon to $5 billion was widely rejected.

Now this 3 stop extension has gone from $5.5-$6 billion to $10 billion and counting.

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Scarborough’s subway extension delayed, confidential TTC documents reveal​

Scarborough’s subway extension delayed, confidential TTC documents reveal

The Line 2 subway extension was previously expected to open in 2030.

www.thestar.com

Excerpt (paywall):

This is bonkers but not surprising! A 2033 completion date would make it ten years after the Scarborough RT derailment and twenty years after Toronto City Council first approved the three stop subway! Even if you put aside that subway vs LRT debate, it's possible this project could have been running by now had John Tory not pushed through that boneheaded one stop subway plan! That along with SmartTrack makes Tory's transit proposals the biggest scam in Toronto's history!

 

[urbanclient]

Indeed.

I remember when it was a $3 billion, 1 stop extension the suggestion it could balloon to $5 billion was widely rejected.

Now this 3 stop extension has gone from $5.5-$6 billion to $10 billion and counting.

Apparently I am delusional for suggesting other Metrolinx projects will also be further delayed (beyond that of the already delayed opening date). LOL

As if this time, the Nth time, they'll finally figure out what a deadline means.

 

[nfitz]

This is bonkers but not surprising! A 2033 completion date would make it ten years after the Scarborough RT derailment and twenty years after Toronto City Council first approved the three stop subway!

And approaching 30 years after TTC voted to approve the replacement of the SRT rolling stock with the longer Mark III equipment, extend the staton platforms for longer trains, adjust the problematic curve north of Ellesmere, and refresh the infrastructure.

Recall part of the excuse of backing down on that later on was that the year or so long closure of the SRT would be for too long (even longer if they converted to LRT), and that they could avoid that with the new subway extension.

Had they gone ahead with the original plan (what was the date on that completion ... 2010?), they'd be starting to think about life-extending the quarter-century old Mark III equipment by now!

 

[crs1026]

Projects don't slip by three years overnight.

There had to have been a point where the project was known to be 12 months behind.

That was never disclosed.

Then there had to have been a point where the project was known to be 24 months behind.

That was never disclosed.

The lack of transparency has been with us for a while.

- Paul