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BASE said:
Agree that Smith is a huge drag on the CPC even if the perception of their alignment is worse than the reality (perception is what matters I know). As for Harper I do think he gave a good speech and might be trusted amongst some swing voters so I do see it as a benefit, and he didn't have to speak publicly like that.

Election time is a lot of fun and I am very curious to see how polls line up with final results. Anyone have a easy button (site) that has tracked pre-election polls against results over past elections in Canada?

Right now I am guessing 5% chance of LPC majority, 70% chance LPC minority, & 25% chance CPC minority but long ways to go.
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The number crunchers (338Canada.ca and CBC Poll Tracker are the ones I look at most) are putting it at closer to 90% chance of LPC majority. Remember: when the national polls are close, LPC wins because their vote is so much more "efficient" in our system. CPC tends to take rural Alberta/Sask ridings with 70-80% of the vote but LPC wins ridings all over Canada with closer to 50% (or less) of the vote.
 
TAS said:
I think including Harper is a wash since there are video clips of both Harper and his finance minister at the time (Flaherty) praising Carney as well as Flaherty's chief comms spokesperson now who has come out saying Carney would make a great choice.

Also (and I agree with this political analysis i heard) the more Albertans talk about wanting to seperate if Libs win, the more it cements their support in Ontario. This group of Alberta CPC supporters is actually making things harder for PP in the all important Ontario.
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You also have to wonder if Harper’s position isn’t solely based on party allegiance - it is after all his party - and not Poilievre actually being a better fiscal choice to administer the country.

If Poilievre is a better fiscal choice, one has to wonder why Harper didn’t choose him to be his finance minister after Jim Flaherty, choosing Joe Oliver instead after unsuccessfully courting Mark Carney to take the job.
 
If you want to look at past polls, Wikipedia is a pretty good aggregator for these things.

E.g. 2021: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_federal_election

You'll see that the final polls by Research Co (tie), Abacus (Tories+1), Ipsos (Tories+1) and Angus Reid (Tories+2) were right on the money. Other pollsters showed a small to modest Liberal lead.

Currently, those same four "gold standard pollsters" (if you will) vary from Abacus being the most optimistic for the Tories (a tie!) vs. Ipsos being the most optimistic for the Liberals (+12!): https://bsky.app/profile/338canada.bsky.social/post/3lmdhy5pcbc26

1744153108201.png
 
archited said:
I only hope that Edmonton doesn't shoot itself in the foot again in terms of representation in Ottawa.
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So, so true. Edmonton failing to elect Sohi, for instance, would be a massive missed opportunity if the Liberals win.

Certainly Carney is emotionally tied to Edmonton unlike any previous PM in our country's history and we need somebody else at the cabinet table.

If the CPC wins, I'm not sure who that would be - I'm not as familiar with their local candidates.
 
As much as I personally dislike him (having known him a bit in University), I think Poilievre is pretty tight with Michael Cooper.
 

NOMINATION NOTICE – EDMONTON GATEWAY​

RidingEdmonton Gateway
ProvinceAB
DateApril 5, 2025
Start Time10:18 PM
End Time10:18 PM
LocationEdmonton Gateway
I’m pleased to share that Jeremy Hoefsloot will be the Liberal Candidate for Edmonton Gateway in the next federal election, and will continue building on our hard work to keep Canada moving forward.
With a strong focus on important new engagement with Canadians, the Liberal nominations process helps ensure we’re ready to re-elect our dedicated Liberal team in Parliament and continue to elect even more talented, diverse, and hardworking community leaders as Liberal MPs across Canada.
As we look forward to the important work ahead of us, the hope and hard work of Liberals across Canada will ensure our candidates and teams are ready to run competitive campaigns and earn another mandate from Canadians – including right here in Edmonton Gateway.
For more information on the nomination process, please click here.
Thank you for all that you do.
Sincerely,
Maninder Sidhu
National Campaign Co-Chair
Liberal Party of Canada​
 
Edmcowboy11 said:
Sometimes it still astounds me how some areas vote a certain party no matter what.
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100%. People like to complain about the parties pandering to Quebec, but you have to earn their votes as Quebeckers aren’t afraid to switch their vote en masse to another party, whereas nobody needs to campaign on the Prairies, or offer anything to us, as apart from a few downtown ridings most are already a lock for the CPC.
 
That's too bad, if I squint i can see a sliver of why candidates would avoid something like this (more downside for a bad clip going viral than upside) but as a voter just as i thought it was a bad look for Carney to skip the TVA debate it's disappointing to see.
davcocom said:
edmontonjournal.com

Conservative refuses invite to Edmonton Centre debate

Sayid Ahmed hasn't accepted invite for the April 16 debate. His Liberal and NDP rivals saythey aren't surprised
edmontonjournal.com edmontonjournal.com
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If this guy gets more than 1 vote - I'd be surprised. Methinks there is a "language barrier" problem with said candidate, ergo his/her lack of attendance at the debate.
 
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