[kcantor]

Fitting 4 years of democratic proceedings onto one ballot will have each slip looking like a Walgreens receipt.

I know... I was being a bit sarcastic and that never comes across well on line.

In a less than sarcastic vein, all ballots should include a "none of the above" option and there should be a requirement that no one can be elected without a minimum 50% plus 1 plurality of the votes cast included those selecting "none of the above". If that threshold isn't reached, then a by-election would to be held. Lather, rinse, and repeat until there is a candidate and platform that is palatable enough to secure that plurality is elected. That way, every elected representative would be representing a plurality of voters in their riding instead of simply being the first past the post...

 

[David A]

I know... I was being a bit sarcastic and that never comes across well on line.

In a less than sarcastic vein, all ballots should include a "none of the above" option and there should be a requirement that no one can be elected without a minimum 50% plus 1 plurality of the votes cast included those selecting "none of the above". If that threshold isn't reached, then a by-election would to be held. Lather, rinse, and repeat until there is a candidate and platform that is palatable enough to secure that plurality is elected. That way, every elected representative would be representing a plurality of voters in their riding instead of simply being the first past the post...

There are also ranked ballots, which could be a good solution for the conundrum of strategic voting. Maybe this could be combined with a none of the above choice.

 

[policyenthusiast]

I attended an excellent briefing from Abacus Data on these metrics, showing a near-perfect LPC/CPC split in Alberta. The national trends seem to suggest an LPC minority government, with the main detractors from each party being:

• LPC: Brookfield Asset Management, and its tax practices;
• CPC: "Poilievre has never had a real job", Trump, and a lack of policy focus in favor of criticizing Carney;
  NDP: Being percieved as a sinking ship, and policy that does not reflect economic understanding.

I don't think it's too late for Poilievre to swing the polls back in the CPCs favor, and including Harper more comprehensively is a good step. Most voters are focused on macroeconomic policy, and the Trump-style "smear the opponent with sh*t" rhetoric isn't landing outside of a vocal minority who would vote CPC no matter what.

Just my two cents. Super interesting election, my favorite one so far.

 

[policyenthusiast]

Alberta-specific federal poll data from Abacus:

 

[Airboy]

Yah its an interesting election. I suspect we are going to end up with another minority Gov when the dust settles. Now its how much damage can be done by all the media and the UCP. Its almost like Dany is trying to Tank PP just so she can stoke the separatist fires.

 

[policyenthusiast]

Yah its an interesting election. I suspect we are going to end up with another minority Gov when the dust settles. Now its how much damage can be done by all the media and the UCP. Its almost like Dany is trying to Tank PP just so she can stoke the separatist fires.

Unlikely, but not impossible. Smith's rhetoric largely depends on being able to blame the federal government for everything. Under a CPC federal government, her administration would need to pivot to blaming the provincial NDP (which has not gone over well) or claiming that the minority government parties are somehow still pulling the strings.

 

[archited]

Based purely on intellect and Economic Smarts I don't see PP ever catching up to MC. Mark Carney is the emcee. And I believe the personal focus in the end will be more on National Politics than local favorites (that's my guess). A majority government for a full five-year stretch would be most beneficial to Canada.

 

[David A]

View attachment 642485

I attended an excellent briefing from Abacus Data on these metrics, showing a near-perfect LPC/CPC split in Alberta. The national trends seem to suggest an LPC minority government, with the main detractors from each party being:

• LPC: Brookfield Asset Management, and its tax practices;
• CPC: "Poilievre has never had a real job", Trump, and a lack of policy focus in favor of criticizing Carney;
  NDP: Being percieved as a sinking ship, and policy that does not reflect economic understanding.

I don't think it's too late for Poilievre to swing the polls back in the CPCs favor, and including Harper more comprehensively is a good step. Most voters are focused on macroeconomic policy, and the Trump-style "smear the opponent with sh*t" rhetoric isn't landing outside of a vocal minority who would vote CPC no matter what.

Just my two cents. Super interesting election, my favorite one so far.

Poilievre has never been very well liked. I suppose it is possible the CPC will throw enough dirt to drag down support levels for his opponents closer to his, but that approach while it has been effective for them in the past does take some time to work.

 

[David A]

Unlikely, but not impossible. Smith's rhetoric largely depends on being able to blame the federal government for everything. Under a CPC federal government, her administration would need to pivot to blaming the provincial NDP (which has not gone over well) or claiming that the minority government parties are somehow still pulling the strings.

Blaming a party that has been out of power for many years, would be a hard sell now even for someone like Smith who is quite good at gaslighting.

 

[constance_chlore]

I would maintain that Carney's French is tolerable enough that the parts of Québec that are prone to voting Liberal wouldn't swing away from him. However, the whole Bâtir Maisons Canada deal was quite a fumble, and gave a rare W to the odious Mathieu Bock-Côté...

 

[TAS]

Blaming a party that has been out of power for many years, would be a hard sell now even for someone like Smith who is quite good at gaslighting.

It's not so much blaming the NDP for the way things are. The card they continue to play is 'remember how bad of a job the NDP did and how much they increased the deficit... do we really want to go back to that?" "Do we really want to go back to wokism?"
A False narrative in many respects, but it works.

 

[TAS]

View attachment 642485

I attended an excellent briefing from Abacus Data on these metrics, showing a near-perfect LPC/CPC split in Alberta. The national trends seem to suggest an LPC minority government, with the main detractors from each party being:

• LPC: Brookfield Asset Management, and its tax practices;
• CPC: "Poilievre has never had a real job", Trump, and a lack of policy focus in favor of criticizing Carney;
  NDP: Being percieved as a sinking ship, and policy that does not reflect economic understanding.

I don't think it's too late for Poilievre to swing the polls back in the CPCs favor, and including Harper more comprehensively is a good step. Most voters are focused on macroeconomic policy, and the Trump-style "smear the opponent with sh*t" rhetoric isn't landing outside of a vocal minority who would vote CPC no matter what.

Just my two cents. Super interesting election, my favorite one so far.

I think including Harper is a wash since there are video clips of both Harper and his finance minister at the time (Flaherty) praising Carney as well as Flaherty's chief comms spokesperson now who has come out saying Carney would make a great choice.

Also (and I agree with this political analysis i heard) the more Albertans talk about wanting to seperate if Libs win, the more it cements their support in Ontario. This group of Alberta CPC supporters is actually making things harder for PP in the all important Ontario.

 

[David A]

It's not so much blaming the NDP for the way things are. The card they continue to play is 'remember how bad of a job the NDP did and how much they increased the deficit... do we really want to go back to that?" "Do we really want to go back to wokism?"
A False narrative in many respects, but it works.

Actually we are back to a deficit now, lets not forget Kenney had several of them too, which will probably be even higher now that oil prices are going down.

The hard core UCP supporters are motivated by their culture wars talk, but more people are focused on fiscal management which was Smiths strong claim when temporarily high oil prices eliminated the deficit. That' gone now.

 

[David A]

I think including Harper is a wash since there are video clips of both Harper and his finance minister at the time (Flaherty) praising Carney as well as Flaherty's chief comms spokesperson now who has come out saying Carney would make a great choice.

Also (and I agree with this political analysis i heard) the more Albertans talk about wanting to seperate if Libs win, the more it cements their support in Ontario. This group of Alberta CPC supporters is actually making things harder for PP in the all important Ontario.

Harper mostly appeals to those already voting for or leaning to supporting the Conservatives and of course he is going to support the candidate for his party.

Every time Smith opens her yap, it is really not helpful for them in Ontario. It reminds them of some of the kooky bunch behind the CPC (ie. Trump supporting Alberta separatists).

 

[BASE]

Agree that Smith is a huge drag on the CPC even if the perception of their alignment is worse than the reality (perception is what matters I know). As for Harper I do think he gave a good speech and might be trusted amongst some swing voters so I do see it as a benefit, and he didn't have to speak publicly like that.

Election time is a lot of fun and I am very curious to see how polls line up with final results. Anyone have a easy button (site) that has tracked pre-election polls against results over past elections in Canada?

Right now I am guessing 5% chance of LPC majority, 70% chance LPC minority, & 25% chance CPC minority but long ways to go.