I get the appeal of running Carney in Edmonton as they will get a PM boost in both the riding and the adjacent ridings in an area where they only currently have one sitting MP. Edmonton Southeast is certainly a possible landing point (and I believe the only remaining real option for Carney in the city), but the counterpoint would be devoting resources and a little bit more effort into that riding when the alternative is plopping him in Toronto Centre and having him win by default, putting those resources elsewhere. Speaking personally I would want the PM boost in Edmonton - the cities in Alberta have shown they have been able to vote NDP/LPC in the past to go against the rural areas of the province. Ien has confirmed she's not running again in Toronto Centre, so there is that.`
I've been poking through the riding redistributions and I think some of them could be interesting for the LPC. Peterborough, previously pushing north into rural area, now instead extends south towards Rice Lake. It loses some big CPC-heavy polling divisions and gains more tossups. The land that Peterborough moves into is taken from Northumberland-Clarke - with growth in Cobourg and Port Hope this riding might be closer to a tossup than usual. This riding went Liberal in 2015. Likewise, Bay of Quinte loses some sliver of rural land north of the 401, and could very well be a tossup.
Durham loses everything north of RR19, including Port Perry, becoming Bowmanville-Oshawa North. This should be a much tighter riding than previous - Poilievre confidant Jamil Jivani is running here. That northern section moves into the old York-Simcoe riding to become York-Durham which should remain a solidly CPC riding. Likewise, Pickering-Uxbridge loses everything north of Townline, including Uxbridge, to become Pickering-Brooklin. Like Ajax and Whitby this riding should be firmly LPC, as the three of them have been since 2015.
Anyway, if the LPC are looking at pickups in Peterborough and Bay of Quinte then they're likely looking at bubble majority territory. It doesn't seem like the NDP are going to be pushing them much in Toronto, although I am fascinated by Ottawa Centre where incumbent LPC Yasir Naqvi is going up against popular NDP MPP Joel Harden. In the pre-Trudeau days this riding was firmly NDP.
