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First ballot Liberal Party leadership results (And final)

Mark Carney - 131,674 votes (29,457 points, 85.9%)

Freeland - 11,134 votes (2,729 points, 8.0%)

Gould - 4,785 votes (1,100 points, 3.2%)

Baylis - 4,038 votes (1,014 points, 3.0%)

Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been elected the next leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and is now the Prime Minister-Designate of Canada
 
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I'm surprised Gould did not perform better. She was my first ballot choice, though I did want Carney to win.
 
I'm surprised Gould did not perform better. She was my first ballot choice, though I did want Carney to win.
Gould was my 2nd ballot choice, with Carney first. I (and I suspect the electors) wanted someone outside the current Liberal machine/cabinet. Hopefully we are correct
 
If the election is held after April 2024, there will be a a new election map, due to the recent electoral commission redistribution.

Here are the new Toronto ridings:

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Source

With an election imminent, I was reviewing some of the the new ridings for this election.

It's disappointing to see that Liberty Village is essentially split in half, with Atlantic Avenue as the boundary between Taiaiako'n-Parkdale High Park and Spadina-Harbourfont (formerly Spadina-Fort York). This isn't a big issue now, as the vast majority of LV residents live east of Atlantic, but there are plans for development west of Atlantic in the next few years.

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Elections Canada
 
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On the flip side, Toronto Centre's boundaries have been cleaned up, so the edges are now Yonge, Bloor, DVP, and Gardiner. Previously Esplanade was the south boundary which split that neighbourhood, and the boundary bounced back and forth across Yonge. Much simpler for this round.

Likewise, University-Rosedale loses its northernmost part of Rosedale which was a bit Conservative and moves southwards from Dundas down to Queen, which votes more NDP.

St-Paul's moves from Mount Pleasant to Bayview as an Eastern boundary which should vote more Liberal, and it loses what little it had south of Vaughan Road and west of Winona, which voted Liberal-ish in the byelection. It of course retains Forest Hill which is a heavy CPC area but I expect this riding to flip back to Liberal in 2025.
 
Toronto Centre seems to be the place where “star” candidates are parachuted in, like Bob Rae (who lives in Baby Point) and Bill Morneau (who lived in Don Valley West, two ridings away). I don’t know where Ien lives, but she was also appointed to the candidacy.

There could be someone else, but I’m a little surprised that there’s no chatter about Ien’s sudden departure.
This is why I think Carney running there does make sense. I know there was chatter and speculation of him running in either Edmonton or Northwest Territories due to his background, but NWT already has an Liberal MP and Edmonton will be tricky... it is still Alberta after all! So I think Toronto Centre is a safe place for him, Liberals almost always win it, safe bet he can win a seat if he wins there unless the Liberals collapse.
 
I get the appeal of running Carney in Edmonton as they will get a PM boost in both the riding and the adjacent ridings in an area where they only currently have one sitting MP. Edmonton Southeast is certainly a possible landing point (and I believe the only remaining real option for Carney in the city), but the counterpoint would be devoting resources and a little bit more effort into that riding when the alternative is plopping him in Toronto Centre and having him win by default, putting those resources elsewhere. Speaking personally I would want the PM boost in Edmonton - the cities in Alberta have shown they have been able to vote NDP/LPC in the past to go against the rural areas of the province. Ien has confirmed she's not running again in Toronto Centre, so there is that.`

I've been poking through the riding redistributions and I think some of them could be interesting for the LPC. Peterborough, previously pushing north into rural area, now instead extends south towards Rice Lake. It loses some big CPC-heavy polling divisions and gains more tossups. The land that Peterborough moves into is taken from Northumberland-Clarke - with growth in Cobourg and Port Hope this riding might be closer to a tossup than usual. This riding went Liberal in 2015. Likewise, Bay of Quinte loses some sliver of rural land north of the 401, and could very well be a tossup.

Durham loses everything north of RR19, including Port Perry, becoming Bowmanville-Oshawa North. This should be a much tighter riding than previous - Poilievre confidant Jamil Jivani is running here. That northern section moves into the old York-Simcoe riding to become York-Durham which should remain a solidly CPC riding. Likewise, Pickering-Uxbridge loses everything north of Townline, including Uxbridge, to become Pickering-Brooklin. Like Ajax and Whitby this riding should be firmly LPC, as the three of them have been since 2015.

Anyway, if the LPC are looking at pickups in Peterborough and Bay of Quinte then they're likely looking at bubble majority territory. It doesn't seem like the NDP are going to be pushing them much in Toronto, although I am fascinated by Ottawa Centre where incumbent LPC Yasir Naqvi is going up against popular NDP MPP Joel Harden. In the pre-Trudeau days this riding was firmly NDP.
 
Likewise, Pickering-Uxbridge loses everything north of Townline, including Uxbridge, to become Pickering-Brooklin. Like Ajax and Whitby this riding should be firmly LPC, as the three of them have been since 2015.
Not sure about that... Jennifer O'Connell is leaving politics and it was a close race at the provincial level given the minister of finance was the incumbent...

Screenshot_20250313_175212.jpg
 
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Not sure about that... Jennifer O'Connell is leaving politics and it was a close race at the provincial level given the minister of finance was the incumbent...
We'll have to see, but the LPC wins this riding federally by the same margins that the PCs win this riding provincially. I don't know how much to read into that.
 
We'll have to see, but the LPC wins this riding federally by the same margins that the PCs win this riding provincially. I don't know how much to read into that.
Jennifer was a popular city councillor in Pickering... I have no idea who will run in her place, nor can I think of anyone at present who would be a good replacement...this applies to all candidates regardless of party for what it's worth.
 

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