afransen
Senior Member
I voted Gould, Carney, Freeland, Bayliss.
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- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
Mihairokov
Active Member
Admiral Beez
Superstar
CPC is still ahead?
wopchop
Building Toronto
Closed big time per that projection.
Would be lovely to see Skippy have to endure a minority government.
I'd prefer to see Skippy out the door
wopchop
Building Toronto
True, but I still find it hard to see that.
But who knows! The turn this year was certainly unexpected for me.
Mihairokov
Active Member
338's aggregate is weighted so it still has older polls contributing to the projection. It's likely CPC are behind the LPC at this point even if the model doesn't show it today.
Mihairokov
Active Member
No other party will work with the CPC in a minority situation. I can't remember my political conventions but if no party has a majority it falls first to the incumbent government to try and form, and if they cannot it goes to the next. Someone is free to correct me on this. It should go to the Liberals first to form. If not it goes to the Conservatives who would likely waste time trying to form before it would eventually go to the Liberals. I don't like thinking about the scenario where the CPC are dragging their heels on forming government, blaming everyone under the sun, while getting boosted by the US and its despicables trying to influence our election result and aftermath. I don't think we as a country can afford to give the CPC even a failed chance at a minority, or an election results where they have the most seats and/or vote totals.
Richard White
Senior Member
In theory yes, but in practice no.
If the CPC win a minority mandate, you can't ask the LPC to form a government as that would be against the will of the people. I mean, in theory you could but if the LPC accepted it would probably start a constitutional crisis
Towered
Superstar
It's pretty common in European countries. Austria just had an election where the far right party came out with the biggest share of the popular vote and was asked to form a coalition government, but failed to do so because none of the other parties agreed, so the second largest party wound up forming the government...
Richard White
Senior Member
Yes but can you imagine the reaction here?
It is common to do this in other countries but short of the failed NDP, LPC coalition that has never really happened here. It would cause alot of grief.
Mihairokov
Active Member
Scheer tried arguing this in 2019 - that if the Conservatives won the most seats without a majority they should have first chance at forming government - but that's not how our system operates. Parliamentary precedence is that the incumbent government has first chance at maintaining the confidence of Parliament. This is true even if the CPC have more seats than the LPC but neither have a majority.
Richard White
Senior Member
As I said, in theory but not in practice.
It is similar to the Governor General using reserve powers. Our system has them but in practice she cannot use them.
lenaitch
Senior Member
That's the way I understand it. I'm not sure if, by convention, the incumbent party would have to go to Crown (GG) to seek a mandate to govern or could simply recall Parliament. Optically, I think it would be a good idea.
It's all about 'enjoying the confidence of the House', and there are many ways for a party to demonstrate that to the Crown. Push come to shove, I wouldn't put it past any party to support any other party on some set of favourable terms. It all boils down to wielding power.
Mihairokov
Active Member
It's literally the precedence set by and in Parliament.
Given that they're an incumbent government I don't think they would need the approval of the GG to seek mandate. Theoretically if the LPC have a minority and are supported by the NDP we'd be returning a Parliament which was effectively the same as the last.
As for your last point, I can't see a scenario where either the NDP or BQ support the CPC. For the latter, it would likely require such monumental concession as to fundamentally disrupt the Conservative base. I can't see it happening, and as much as i'd like to be proven wrong I hope we don't enter into a scenario where this is necessary or an option.