[zang]

This is an excellent contribution. Credit rating agencies have to give useful, actionable, and as far as possible true data to stay in business. (Then again there is that pesky issuer-pays revenue model, i.e. it's the debtors, not the creditors/investors, who pay to get their securities rated, leading to a conflict of interest. But investors still rely on these assessments, so who knows? In the end they're the only game in town.)

So I think we can take this as pretty reliable. The last time things seemed to be running smoothly was 2019, though by 2020 (the plague year) the target had been moved back by a year. We don't know what was going on in 2022, but like the world's crappiest progress bar, they have been stuck at 99+% for at least three years now. So most of the delays we have evidence for have taken place under Doug Ford's government.

Now, it could turn out that, one way or another, the delays are the fruit of bad choices made when Liberals were in power. There's no evidence of that here, however. What's clear is that Doug and company are responsible for 100% of the stonewalling and effrontery we've experienced, in the face of increasingly justifiable public impatience and anger at the delay.

In January of 2024, I wrote these:

Saw a family member who works for Metrolinx. I found my discussion with them about the Crosstown so disheartening. I had assumed that the line was around 80%, with more or less testing and finishing to go.

They showed me the project readiness status.

44%

Despite access to confidential info, this family member wasn’t able to tell me when the line would be up and running. Not because they couldn't say, but because they didn’t even know. They said that there’s a whole lot of Metrolinx that doesn’t know.

They did say that there were several FOIs “coming due soon”, if that gives any glimmer of hope as to when the public will get any tidbits of info. They implied that Phil Verster is incredibly tight lipped about everything, even when transparency would benefit him, and so a lot of the corporation is needlessly kept in the dark.

That kinda tracks with previous reports that (despite his insistence otherwise), Doug Ford is in control over what information comes out of Metrolinx.

I don't think there's been a lot of surprises; I think it's just been slogging along so slowly that no-one can actually predict when it'll be done.

 

[ThenWhat]

[…]

Now, it could turn out that, one way or another, the delays are the fruit of bad choices made when Liberals were in power. There's no evidence of that here, however. What's clear is that Doug and company are responsible for 100% of the stonewalling and effrontery we've experienced, in the face of increasingly justifiable public impatience and anger at the delay.

I wish it were so simple. To me it looks like the project was carefully structured to make sure that nobody is responsible.

 

[ElrondHubbard]

In January of 2024, I wrote these:





I don't think there's been a lot of surprises; I think it's just been slogging along so slowly that no-one can actually predict when it'll be done.

So, on the one hand we have:

• "99% complete" and "99.9% complete", coming from (what seems to be an AI paraphrase of) one or more credit reports. Did the AI invent or hallucinate the percentages? Possibly, if such an assumption were somehow embedded in the prompt. But that's not in evidence one way or the other.

And on the other hand:

• A second-hand anecdote, sourced to a rank-and-file Metrolinx employee, saying "44% project readiness". Not disparaging, that's what it legitimately is: anecdotal evidence from someone who isn't here right now. At least that's better than no evidence, which is what we get from Metrolinx.

I don't doubt the 44% figure is a correct value of... something. The question is, what does it mean when we're getting 99% from one direction and 44% from another? Guess it hinges on the difference between "Completion" and "Readiness". I don't find it hard to understand how a project can be "99% complete" (complete as in constructed) while only being "44% ready" (ready as in validated, conformance tested, everything functions as it needs to, software doesn't crash and handles edge/corner cases correctly, and all the endless technicalities resolved).

The question, as always and forevermore, is why they have kept all this out of sight. Whose reputation is being protected? I for one think the fish rots from the head.

 

[toonderly]

I don't doubt the 44% figure is a correct value of... something. The question is, what does it mean when we're getting 99% from one direction and 44% from another?

The 44% was cited from January 2024.

 

[zang]

So, on the one hand we have:

• "99% complete" and "99.9% complete", coming from (what seems to be an AI paraphrase of) one or more credit reports. Did the AI invent or hallucinate the percentages? Possibly, if such an assumption were somehow embedded in the prompt. But that's not in evidence one way or the other.

And on the other hand:

• A second-hand anecdote, sourced to a rank-and-file Metrolinx employee, saying "44% project readiness". Not disparaging, that's what it legitimately is: anecdotal evidence from someone who isn't here right now. At least that's better than no evidence, which is what we get from Metrolinx.

Metrolinx employees have access to either their own app or web app. This wasn't second hand; she literally showed me the "progress ring" that said, "44% readiness". I was surprised, given likely NDAs in her work contract, that she even shared this info with me. Even though her job makes her privy to a great many things, she pointed out that Verster intentionally kept things from different departments, with no explanation as to why.

I don't doubt the 44% figure is a correct value of... something. The question is, what does it mean when we're getting 99% from one direction and 44% from another? Guess it hinges on the difference between "Completion" and "Readiness". I don't find it hard to understand how a project can be "99% complete" (complete as in constructed) while only being "44% ready" (ready as in validated, conformance tested, everything functions as it needs to, software doesn't crash and handles edge/corner cases correctly, and all the endless technicalities resolved).

As I noted, the 44% was in January of 2024. But from what I was to understand, "readiness" equated to "completion", ie; handover to the TTC.

The question, as always and forevermore, is why they have kept all this out of sight. Whose reputation is being protected? I for one think the fish rots from the head.

I bet it rhymes with Slug Hoard.

 

[BrenWilson]

44% could be a percent of completion certificates or the like, which are a huge part of the final stages. Look at FWLRT - I've been doing minor work on that project for over a year now and the Guideway construction has been finished that entire time. I would hazard a guess that this stage of the project is prone to compounding delays.

 

[jordanmkasla2009]

44% could be a percent of completion certificates or the like, which are a huge part of the final stages. Look at FWLRT - I've been doing minor work on that project for over a year now and the Guideway construction has been finished that entire time. I would hazard a guess that this stage of the project is prone to compounding delays.

This. Believe it or not when the TTC starts running actual revenue service on the line, the project still won't be at 100% completion as defined in the contracts. That number often isn't achieved until months or even years after a transit project like this begins service, so saying the project was only at 44% in January of 2024 doesn't tell the whole story. Substantial completion, for example, doesn't mean that all the work on the project is complete. It means that enough of the project is deemed complete and that the line is deemed safe and reliable enough to begin revenue service.

 

[Metroscapes]

I'm not swayed by this vague 44%. This is something we touched on about a year ago.

So the progress timeline is exponential. I think that's a key takeaway from that graphic, it's not accurate to project progress time linearly. Construction certificates could jump to 60% if 50% of them were processed in one shot.

 

[ElrondHubbard]

Meanwhile, any possibility RSD has begun yet? Is anyone watching the trains? I live and commute above the underground section, never get a chance to see ‘em myself.

 

[zang]

I'm not swayed by this vague 44%. This is something we touched on about a year ago.

Which I get.

In retrospect, we also knew in January 2024 that the whole project was already four years past completion, and there were articles in the prior December saying stuff like this:

While Metrolinx has not committed to an exact opening date for the much-delayed Eglinton Crosstown LRT, the TTC has alluded to a possible schedule for when the line will open.​

​

In a report breaking down the transit agency’s operating and capital budgets for next year, it included operational and maintenance costs for the openings of Line 5 (Eglinton Crosstown) and Line 6 (Finch West LRT) “based on a planned Revenue Service date of September 2024.”​

Trains have been running on the tracks for years, which seemingly implied that the project was near completion, when it very obviously wasn't.

Almost two years later, does 44% as the full project completion (ie; in full revenue service) sound in any way inaccurate?

 

[Parkdalian]

This forum thread has devolved into priestly prognostications. Without any real news or information, folks are trying to figure out the situation based upon little more than augury.

"I looked up into the sky on the third blood moon, and I saw a flock of birds, and they spelled out a ghostly 44%"

Absent any real news, all we can do is wait until it's open. After it's open, we might find out what went wrong. Or maybe not! It might all be lost to the sands of time...

 

[zang]

This forum thread has devolved into priestly prognostications. Without any real news or information, folks are trying to figure out the situation based upon little more than augury.

So this thread should remain dormant until Metrolinx finally publishes a press release?

 

[Parkdalian]

So this thread should remain dormant until Metrolinx finally publishes a press release?

Many threads on this site are dormant because there is no information about the projects. This thread has devolved into the gnashing of teeth and people trying to prove that they, and only they, know the real truth behind all of the delays.

But please, continue trying to prove the 44% you heard in an anecdote has any meaning whatsoever! Just providing my perspective.

 

[ElrondHubbard]

This forum thread has devolved into priestly prognostications. Without any real news or information, folks are trying to figure out the situation based upon little more than augury.

"I looked up into the sky on the third blood moon, and I saw a flock of birds, and they spelled out a ghostly 44%"

Absent any real news, all we can do is wait until it's open. After it's open, we might find out what went wrong. Or maybe not! It might all be lost to the sands of time...

Yes, years and years being held in suspense, with almost no new information becoming available in all that time, tend to have that effect. People speculate because there's literally nothing else we can do. And we can't just sit in silence because it's such an important project for so many (not to mention the 11-figure bill attached).

It's a lot like the way extreme sensory deprivation can lead to auditory and other hallucinations. When it's so starved for input, the brain starts to make up its own, till you find yourself having conversations with a volleyball. No, it's not healthy, but then again it's not the fault of the person suffering the hallucinations -- it's the silence.

 

[zang]

Many threads on this site are dormant because there is no information about the projects. This thread has devolved into the gnashing of teeth and people trying to prove that they, and only they, know the real truth behind all of the delays.

This is a project that we keep being told is opening soon.

But please, continue trying to prove the 44% you heard in an anecdote has any meaning whatsoever! Just providing my perspective.

For the record, when I asked how Crosstown was going, I was shown a backend dashboard from the Metrolinx employee app/website, from a Metrolinx employee, with a progress ring saying "44% readiness". Do I have any information beyond that? No. Does the project being at some mid-way state two years ago, after (then) 3 years of delayed opening and immense secrecy, track with a low "readiness" (whatever that may be) number? Hell yes.