[Bojaxs]

I don't know what the original poster meant, but here's a possible explanation. You're talking about the transit line itself, but for investments, it's all about property alongside the corridors, especially any piece of property big enough to knock down whatever's there and build a condo on it. These can indeed be long-term investments, because someone who bought property along Eglinton before 2010, when the route was first approved, or even proposed and just an idea on a drawing board, is still waiting for their investment to mature. Also, I can well imagine people buying property along a road where no transit line is planned yet, but could be, and then lobbying the government to build transit along the road where their property exists. This also counts as investment activity. And all this long term investment could involve laundering money, but identifying where exactly it's happening is way beyond the scope of this discussion.

If that's the motivation here, then why wasn't a proper subway constructed along Eglinton? As that would have increase property values much higher compared to what's currently been constructed. Particularly along the Golden Mile stretch.

 

[ElrondHubbard]

If that's the motivation here, then why wasn't a proper subway constructed along Eglinton? As that would have increase property values much higher compared to what's currently been constructed. Particularly along the Golden Mile stretch.

Why, why, why? Ask unanswerable questions, get meaningless answers.

The true answer is a truly boring one: there was a political process that initiated a design process, then another political process that selected the design. Then they went ahead and started construction. The end. Not much point wasting breath on it now. Save your ammunition for the next multi-billion dollar transit project. That way there's an opportunity to be ahead of the curve.

 

[Bojaxs]

Why, why, why? Ask unanswerable questions, get meaningless answers.

The true answer is a truly boring one: there was a political process that initiated a design process, then another political process that selected the design. Then they went ahead and started construction. The end. Not much point wasting breath on it now. Save your ammunition for the next multi-billion dollar transit project. That way there's an opportunity to be ahead of the curve.

You're right. No sense in crying over spilt milk. Which is exactly what this project is.

 

[generalcanada]

Again for those in the back.
this is a FIXED PRICE contract.

Outside of the public lawsuits. there is no extra money for crosslinx. They have been burning extra cash from 2022 onwards. SNC lavalin, AECON and ELLIS DON are losing money on this project

 

[crs1026]

Again for those in the back.
this is a FIXED PRICE contract.

Outside of the public lawsuits. there is no extra money for crosslinx. They have been burning extra cash from 2022 onwards. SNC lavalin, AECON and ELLIS DON are losing money on this project

"Fixed price" is a bit of political theatre and is a fantasy. Don't assume that is the case behind the firewall.

The outcome of litigation may never be disclosed, especially if the claim is settled out of court. The public may never know.

- Paul

 

[ThenWhat]

Surely TTC has been measuring many things during these trial/testing/demonstration/etc runs.

So: Does anybody with inside connections know what the actual (average) measured time is for the train to get from end to end? Or end to end to end around the loop, back at Mount Dennis?

 

[generalcanada]

"Fixed price" is a bit of political theatre and is a fantasy. Don't assume that is the case behind the firewall.

The outcome of litigation may never be disclosed, especially if the claim is settled out of court. The public may never know.

- Paul

no they did disclose it

https://archive.is/EIhzh

Eglinton Crosstown LRT could be $330 million over budget and open seven months late, internal documents warn

Though the cost estimate was done by Metrolinx, the transit agency disputes the delay assessment, which was made by the private consortium building the LRT.

www.thestar.com

Eglinton Crosstown LRT to cost more and take longer, after builder scores legal victory

Judge’s ruling Monday opens the door for the two sides to renegotiate the line’s schedule and construction costs.

www.thestar.com

 

[nfitz]

"Fixed price" is a bit of political theatre and is a fantasy. Don't assume that is the case behind the firewall.

The outcome of litigation may never be disclosed, especially if the claim is settled out of court. The public may never know.

But it managed to secure a 2021 opening date - only 7 months late!

 

[alexb]

I'm not sure if the Moody's reports have ever been discussed here (actually double checked and I posted an update from Moodys in here in May 2023) but they are probably the closest thing we'll get to actual public knowledge. They are issued annually. I have asked chat-gpt to summarize since 2019 and I will also post the latest once from May:

Year	Rating & Outlook	Project Status	Key Risks / Issues	Financial & Contractual Highlights
2019 (Y1)	Baa2 stable	Construction progressing; permitting & utility issues settled	Tight schedule; complexity may cause delays/cost overruns	Liquidity supports 18-month delay; limited third-party security; availability payments in ops phase
2020 (Y2)	Baa2 stable	Construction ongoing; Sept 2021 SC target at risk	Unresolved claims with Province/Metrolinx; COVID-19 disrupts acceleration; risk of material delay	Liquidity buffer intact; DBJV credit quality at risk if costs escalate
2021 (Y3 pre-downgrade)	Baa2 (still)	SC beyond Sept 2021 likely; delays mounting	No agreement on supervening events; DBJV bearing costs without compensation; COVID restrictions limit mitigations	Long stop date offers cushion; liquidity still supports 18-month delay
2023 (Y3 downgrade)	Downgraded to Baa3; outlook stable	99% complete; major works done; testing/commissioning & operator agreement outstanding	Missed Feb 2023 SC; unresolved claims strain relationships; DBJV paying LDs & extra costs	Credit facility extended to Sept 2024; long stop date Aug 2024; experienced DBJV members provide resilience
2024 (Y4)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	99.9% complete; testing, commissioning, training underway; RSD pending	Delays persist; unresolved claims; LDs continue until PALD	Aug 2023 agreement: Province/Metrolinx milestone-based cash flow support; PALD revised (extension discussions ongoing)
2025 (Y5)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	Still 99.9% complete; driver training schedule set; trial running → RSD → SC pathway defined	Continued testing/commissioning delays; unresolved claims; LDs continue; PALD extension under discussion	Mar 2025 variation renews milestone-based cash flow support; SC payment to repay construction facility

Toronto, May 26, 2025 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Crosslinx Transit Solutions Gen. Partnership and other ratings that are associated with this issuer.

The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 22 May 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Please see the Issuer page on https://ratings.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Key Rating considerations and rationale are summarized below.

Crosslinx Transit Solutions Gen. Partnership's (ProjectCo) ratings, including its senior secured Baa3 rating and stable outlook, remain unchanged. The project (Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit) still faces delays, but is 99.9% complete and the project parties have a path towards for reaching substantial completion (SC) to start operations. Delays are largely attributable to testing and commissioning including additional operator driver training, but a clear schedule for the additional training is in place after which the trial running will occur, followed by Revenue Service Demonstration (RSD) and SC. The SC payment will be used repay the senior construction facility among other costs following a holdback period.

A variation was signed by the parties in March 2025 under which the Province of Ontario (Aa3 stable) and Metrolinx (together, the contracting authority or CA) are providing cash flow support based on milestones achieved to Project Co (passed through to the construction contractor) to facilitate the achievement of SC. Discussions are currently ongoing to extend the Project Agreement Longstop Date ("PALD").

The construction contractor continues to pay liquidated damages (LDs), payable until the PALD. While ProjectCo and the CA have yet to reach a timely settlement on the outstanding material supervening claims made by ProjectCo, these matters will be settled after the project becomes operational.

During the operating phase, ProjectCo will be required to maintain the overall system, including the vehicles, but is not required to operate the system. It will not be exposed to any material ridership risk as its revenues will come from the CA's availability payments. All the maintenance and most of the rehabilitation obligations have been sub-contracted to a company (the Service Provider), in which affiliates of the equity sponsors each have a 25% share, for the duration of the project agreement. The sponsors have extensive experience constructing and maintaining transit systems.

I dont believe you could hide reporting a major problem like a foundation/leaking issue at Eglinton from these.

 

[cplchanb]

I'm not sure if the Moody's reports have ever been discussed here (actually double checked and I posted an update from Moodys in here in May 2023) but they are probably the closest thing we'll get to actual public knowledge. They are issued annually. I have asked chat-gpt to summarize since 2019 and I will also post the latest once from May:

Year	Rating & Outlook	Project Status	Key Risks / Issues	Financial & Contractual Highlights
2019 (Y1)	Baa2 stable	Construction progressing; permitting & utility issues settled	Tight schedule; complexity may cause delays/cost overruns	Liquidity supports 18-month delay; limited third-party security; availability payments in ops phase
2020 (Y2)	Baa2 stable	Construction ongoing; Sept 2021 SC target at risk	Unresolved claims with Province/Metrolinx; COVID-19 disrupts acceleration; risk of material delay	Liquidity buffer intact; DBJV credit quality at risk if costs escalate
2021 (Y3 pre-downgrade)	Baa2 (still)	SC beyond Sept 2021 likely; delays mounting	No agreement on supervening events; DBJV bearing costs without compensation; COVID restrictions limit mitigations	Long stop date offers cushion; liquidity still supports 18-month delay
2023 (Y3 downgrade)	Downgraded to Baa3; outlook stable	99% complete; major works done; testing/commissioning & operator agreement outstanding	Missed Feb 2023 SC; unresolved claims strain relationships; DBJV paying LDs & extra costs	Credit facility extended to Sept 2024; long stop date Aug 2024; experienced DBJV members provide resilience
2024 (Y4)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	99.9% complete; testing, commissioning, training underway; RSD pending	Delays persist; unresolved claims; LDs continue until PALD	Aug 2023 agreement: Province/Metrolinx milestone-based cash flow support; PALD revised (extension discussions ongoing)
2025 (Y5)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	Still 99.9% complete; driver training schedule set; trial running → RSD → SC pathway defined	Continued testing/commissioning delays; unresolved claims; LDs continue; PALD extension under discussion	Mar 2025 variation renews milestone-based cash flow support; SC payment to repay construction facility

Toronto, May 26, 2025 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Crosslinx Transit Solutions Gen. Partnership and other ratings that are associated with this issuer.

The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 22 May 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Please see the Issuer page on https://ratings.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

Key Rating considerations and rationale are summarized below.

Crosslinx Transit Solutions Gen. Partnership's (ProjectCo) ratings, including its senior secured Baa3 rating and stable outlook, remain unchanged. The project (Eglinton Crosstown Light Rail Transit) still faces delays, but is 99.9% complete and the project parties have a path towards for reaching substantial completion (SC) to start operations. Delays are largely attributable to testing and commissioning including additional operator driver training, but a clear schedule for the additional training is in place after which the trial running will occur, followed by Revenue Service Demonstration (RSD) and SC. The SC payment will be used repay the senior construction facility among other costs following a holdback period.

A variation was signed by the parties in March 2025 under which the Province of Ontario (Aa3 stable) and Metrolinx (together, the contracting authority or CA) are providing cash flow support based on milestones achieved to Project Co (passed through to the construction contractor) to facilitate the achievement of SC. Discussions are currently ongoing to extend the Project Agreement Longstop Date ("PALD").

The construction contractor continues to pay liquidated damages (LDs), payable until the PALD. While ProjectCo and the CA have yet to reach a timely settlement on the outstanding material supervening claims made by ProjectCo, these matters will be settled after the project becomes operational.

During the operating phase, ProjectCo will be required to maintain the overall system, including the vehicles, but is not required to operate the system. It will not be exposed to any material ridership risk as its revenues will come from the CA's availability payments. All the maintenance and most of the rehabilitation obligations have been sub-contracted to a company (the Service Provider), in which affiliates of the equity sponsors each have a 25% share, for the duration of the project agreement. The sponsors have extensive experience constructing and maintaining transit systems.

I dont believe you could hide reporting a major problem like a foundation/leaking issue at Eglinton from these.

at this rate we need a whistleblower to expose the true nature of the delays. not even a FoIA request was able to turn up any relevant documents.

 

[txlseries4]

at this rate we need a whistleblower to expose the true nature of the delays. not even a FoIA request was able to turn up any relevant documents.

Councillors Colle and Fletcher on several occasions have commented there’s water down there and that the tunnel is sinking, what more could you possibly want?!

 

[crs1026]

While ProjectCo and the CA have yet to reach a timely settlement on the outstanding material supervening claims made by ProjectCo, these matters will be settled after the project becomes operational.

I read this to say there is plenty of room for further settlements in favour of the Projectco, ergo no fixed price actually in place.

- Paul

 

[smallspy]

Councillors Colle and Fletcher on several occasions have commented there’s water down there and that the tunnel is sinking, what more could you possibly want?!

Because, you know, City councillors are known to be geological experts....

Water ingress is a thing, yes. It's a thing with most tunnels in this City for a number of different reasons but largely because of the high water table that exists throughout the City. Sinking, however, is not.

Dan

 

[txlseries4]

Because, you know, City councillors are known to be geological experts....

Water ingress is a thing, yes. It's a thing with most tunnels in this City for a number of different reasons but largely because of the high water table that exists throughout the City. Sinking, however, is not.

Dan

Yes, it was a joke

 

[ElrondHubbard]

I'm not sure if the Moody's reports have ever been discussed here (actually double checked and I posted an update from Moodys in here in May 2023) but they are probably the closest thing we'll get to actual public knowledge. They are issued annually. I have asked chat-gpt to summarize since 2019 and I will also post the latest once from May:

Year	Rating & Outlook	Project Status	Key Risks / Issues	Financial & Contractual Highlights
2019 (Y1)	Baa2 stable	Construction progressing; permitting & utility issues settled	Tight schedule; complexity may cause delays/cost overruns	Liquidity supports 18-month delay; limited third-party security; availability payments in ops phase
2020 (Y2)	Baa2 stable	Construction ongoing; Sept 2021 SC target at risk	Unresolved claims with Province/Metrolinx; COVID-19 disrupts acceleration; risk of material delay	Liquidity buffer intact; DBJV credit quality at risk if costs escalate
2021 (Y3 pre-downgrade)	Baa2 (still)	SC beyond Sept 2021 likely; delays mounting	No agreement on supervening events; DBJV bearing costs without compensation; COVID restrictions limit mitigations	Long stop date offers cushion; liquidity still supports 18-month delay
2023 (Y3 downgrade)	Downgraded to Baa3; outlook stable	99% complete; major works done; testing/commissioning & operator agreement outstanding	Missed Feb 2023 SC; unresolved claims strain relationships; DBJV paying LDs & extra costs	Credit facility extended to Sept 2024; long stop date Aug 2024; experienced DBJV members provide resilience
2024 (Y4)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	99.9% complete; testing, commissioning, training underway; RSD pending	Delays persist; unresolved claims; LDs continue until PALD	Aug 2023 agreement: Province/Metrolinx milestone-based cash flow support; PALD revised (extension discussions ongoing)
2025 (Y5)	Baa3 stable (unchanged)	Still 99.9% complete; driver training schedule set; trial running → RSD → SC pathway defined	Continued testing/commissioning delays; unresolved claims; LDs continue; PALD extension under discussion	Mar 2025 variation renews milestone-based cash flow support; SC payment to repay construction facility

This is an excellent contribution. Credit rating agencies have to give useful, actionable, and as far as possible true data to stay in business. (Then again there is that pesky issuer-pays revenue model, i.e. it's the debtors, not the creditors/investors, who pay to get their securities rated, leading to a conflict of interest. But investors still rely on these assessments, so who knows? In the end they're the only game in town.)

So I think we can take this as pretty reliable. The last time things seemed to be running smoothly was 2019, though by 2020 (the plague year) the target had been moved back by a year. We don't know what was going on in 2022, but like the world's crappiest progress bar, they have been stuck at 99+% for at least three years now. So most of the delays we have evidence for have taken place under Doug Ford's government.

Now, it could turn out that, one way or another, the delays are the fruit of bad choices made when Liberals were in power. There's no evidence of that here, however. What's clear is that Doug and company are responsible for 100% of the stonewalling and effrontery we've experienced, in the face of increasingly justifiable public impatience and anger at the delay.