[JSF-1]

You think that the Bloor-Danforth or Yonge subways just sprang up overnight?

There are lots and lots and lots of cases throughout the world where the ridership was grown organically to the point where it necessitated a change to a higher mode of transit. Just like there were lots and lots and lots of cases where the wrong technology was shoehorned in to fit a task it is not the right one to do.

Dan

On the topic of this and relevant to Eglinton Avenue, this was supposed to be the intention with the original Eglinton West Subway. As part of Network 2011 Eglinton was supposed to have bus lanes installed to build ridership on the route. The actually subway itself wasn't supposed to start construction until 2011 (ironically around the time the EC started construction). However Etobicoke and York put up a stink that their subway was the last to be built and had the subway's construction pushed up to the 90's; a full 25 years before it was planned to be built. Not only did this skip the ridership building phase with the bus lanes, but it also forced Metro and the Province to truncate both the Sheppard and Eglinton Lines as they could not afford to build both in their entirety simultaneously.

 

[CityRider]

Study claims Toronto's TTC streetcars are the slowest in the world​

Thanks for the link! So as I suspected, this is just a clickbaity headline and saying that the TTC streetcars are "the slowest in the world" is based on a comparison of only 15 cities in the study which in the linked PDF is less than a dozen pages long. Clearly room for improvement, but by the admission of the study's own author they're not examining "each of the several hundred tram systems in the world". I realize people love to hate the TTC but "slowest compared to similarly sized networks in this limited study" would be more accurate.

 

[Mihairokov]

Thanks for the link! So as I suspected, this is just a clickbaity headline

BlogTO should have been your first indicator. This graph gets pushed around here every few weeks and it's incredibly tiresome to see time and time again.

 

[zang]

It was never on the verge of shut down for low ridership. On one occasion - the decade before last - TTC tossed it out as a suggestion, simply as leverage to support a 25¢ fare increase, so that they wouldn't have to do service.

“The potential cuts, which could kick in within weeks, are fallout from the defeat, for now, of Mayor David Miller's proposal for $350-million in new taxes.

The mayor denied the threat of reduced services amounts to a scare tactic. "We don't have the room to manoeuvre any more," he said.”

Toronto threatens to shut Sheppard subway

web.archive.org

That doesn't exactly sound like a “suggestion”. Especially when cities are legally barred from running deficits.

Tory’s remarks of shutdown during the pandemic was probably more of an idle threat, but the TTC has been chronically underfunded for decades. It’s not like it has a lot of room to subsidize inefficient routes., especially when ridership takes as big a hit as we got from COVID.

 

[nfitz]

“The potential cuts, which could kick in within weeks, are fallout from the defeat, for now, of Mayor David Miller's proposal for $350-million in new taxes.

I remember of course. We discussed it extensively in one the threads at the time.

And it was clear, from the discussion, that it wasn't on the verge of shutdown! It was a vague thought ... presented simultaneously with the solution of a fare rise.

Go back and read the discussion. I see no need in repeating 20-year old hysteria from the Globe.

Perhaps Covid was a different situation - lots of stuff was shut down at the peak.

 

[zang]

Notwithstanding the above, the service has generally run at every 5M or so, and has been full in rush hours and moderately busy off-peak.

Even though it only runs a four-car configuration, I’ve not once seen Line 4 with standing room only.

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened. And ¾ of all the traffic on it is going to Don Mills. Basically, it appears to be servicing Fairview Mall more than locals.

Certainly a subway was more than the density in place in 1988 required, however, the intent was always for the line to generate greater density over time, which, it has, in spades.

Has it?

It was a truncated line, but it was also built on expectations that a subway magically induces density and ridership, which doesn’t always match up with reality. See; Lawrence Heights or Hogg’s Hollow

I’d be very surprised if density in the area matches the projections given in the 1990s, regardless of the condos in the area.

A tram line would be running service every 2 minutes and packed to the gills now.

The 504 King streetcar services 65,000 passengers a day. 38,000 seems trivial in comparison.

 

[ThenWhat]

The TTC has currently budgeted a lifespan of 12 years for their buses (down from the historical 18), and tracks only need to be rebuilt every 20-25 years, provided that they were built correctly in the first place.

It's nice to be an optimist. We need some realists as well.
The most recent example we have is the St Clair streetcar ROW. Opened in stages between 2007 and 2010. Shut down for maintenance from September 2023 to June 2024.

 

[nfitz]

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened.

I don't recall seeing projections for just Yonge to Don Mills - only Downsview to Scarborough Centre. Do you have a link for that?

The Sheppard ridership was closer to 50,000 a day before Covid. Not quite 10,000 per km.

Bloor Danforth was about 500,000 a day on it's 26 km. Not quite 20,000 per km.

It's not that shabby! Compare to many other subway systems.

The entire Washington DC Metro is over 200 km long, and only has about 560,000 riders a day. About 3,000 per km.

Should it have been surface LRT? Probably. Is it the white elephant some pretend it is - no.

Recall what Sheppard East looked like before the subway. I'd stand at Don Mills and Eglinton changing from the 25 and heading west. And you'd look down the hill, and not only guarantee you'd see a bus coming - but normally see several coming. It was very busy at peak.

 

[zang]

I don't recall seeing projections for just Yonge to Don Mills - only Downsview to Scarborough Centre. Do you have a link for that?

I know I've seen more recent numbers, I just can't find them at the moment. However:

After opening with much fanfare, the Sheppard subway has operated reliably and with good reviews with riders. However, eleven months after the line opened, the TTC came out with a report on the line’s performance which had some disappointing numbers. Initial projections for the line called for 15 million riders, 1 million of which would be new to the TTC. Ridership figures show that, instead, the line has taken 11 million riders, only 800,000 of which are new to the TTC. The TTC blames SARS and a slightly stale economy for the lower-than-expected ridership figures.

The Sheppard Subway - Transit Toronto - Content

I'm assuming at that point, projections were for the truncated line as built.

The Sheppard ridership was closer to 50,000 a day before Covid. Not quite 10,000 per km.

Bloor Danforth was about 500,000 a day on it's 26 km. Not quite 20,000 per km.

It's not that shabby! Compare to many other subway systems.
[…]
Should it have been surface LRT? Probably. Is it the white elephant some pretend it is - no.

Considering it would barely lose less than ¼ of its ridership were the TTC to close all but Don Mills and Yonge-Sheppard Station, I wouldn't even be daring enough to call it a moderate success. It's an express route to a mall. It hasn't created the density/ridership loop that was expected.

Recall what Sheppard East looked like before the subway. I'd stand at Don Mills and Eglinton changing from the 25 and heading west. And you'd look down the hill, and not only guarantee you'd see a bus coming - but normally see several coming. It was very busy at peak.

For sure. Sheppard does double what the buses at the time did. That said, it doesn't mean a subway wasn't overkill.

We knew how to build something with a capacity between buses and subways; the Scarborough RT was originally intended (in the 1970s) to be above ground ROW, chained trams with subway-distance station spacing. They even called it LRT then. That was until the Province forced the TTC to use its UTDC-designed ICTS trains.

To this day, we still continue to believe that "if you built it, they (density) will come" applies to subways. And it just doesn't pan out like that.

A quick phone call with the folks in Montreal's STM might've reminded them that the massive creation of subway to low-density areas that they did for Expo'67, was a money-sucking albatross around their neck only finally paid off a handful of years ago.

 

[Northern Light]

Even though it only runs a four-car configuration, I’ve not once seen Line 4 with standing room only.

I have. You clear don't ride it much.

The entire line has a lower daily ridership (38,705) than the 29/929 Dufferin bus (40,000), and still hasn’t come close to matching projections when it was first opened.

For reasons clearly stated above, this statement is completely and utterly disingenuous and its not a good look on your part.

It was a truncated line, but it was also built on expectations that a subway magically induces density and ridership, which doesn’t always match up with reality. See; Lawrence Heights or Hogg’s Hollow

Line 2 has huge ridership, but relatively little density outside a few nodes, outside the core.........its draw is far-reaching.

The idea that a subway is justified based only on those who can walk to the station is simply rubbish.

I’d be very surprised if density in the area matches the projections given in the 1990s, regardless of the condos in the area.

Go and work it out and get back to us.

Citations please.

The 504 King streetcar services 65,000 passengers a day. 38,000 seems trivial in comparison.

The 504 King, really 2 overlapping routes at this point, is ~13km in length on a consolidated basis............

The current Sheppard subway is 5.4km.

So the former generates 5,000 riders per km

The latter is 6,900 per km.

**********

Chicago's EL system Pink Line does 11,000 daily riders (18km, 22 stations)

Chicago's EL system Brown Line does 34,000 daily riders

Chicago's EL system Orange Line does 18,000 daily riders

Boston's Blue Line does 44,000 daily rides (9km, 12 stations)

London UK, 's Waterloo and City line carries 41,000 daily riders

Rome's C-Line - 41,000 daily riders (26km, 29 stations)

I could list many more

****

We're done now.

 

[nfitz]

After opening with much fanfare, the Sheppard subway has operated reliably and with good reviews with riders. However, eleven months after the line opened, the TTC came out with a report on the line’s performance which had some disappointing numbers. Initial projections for the line called for 15 million riders, 1 million of which would be new to the TTC. Ridership figures show that, instead, the line has taken 11 million riders, only 800,000 of which are new to the TTC. The TTC blames SARS and a slightly stale economy for the lower-than-expected ridership figures.

That's probably for the truncated. But 11 million isn't even coming close to 15 million?

15 million a year would be about 50,000 a week day, using the usual rule of thumb of 300.

Digging into the report that is referenced is interesting - https://web.archive.org/web/2005043...s/gso-comrpt/documents/report/f1906/_conv.htm

That 11-million was based on only the first 5 months of ridership, and is footnoted as being during the SARS outbreak which likely reduced ridership.

And the 15-million is based on 48,000 a week (perhaps the TTC's rule of thumb is 312.5)!

It would be interesting to find what the original year 1 and year 2 Sheppard ridership was. The earliest I can find is 47,700 in the 2009/2010 report.

A quick phone call with the folks in Montreal's STM might've reminded them that the massive creation of subway to low-density areas that they did for Expo'67, was a money-sucking albatross around their neck only finally paid off a handful of years ago.

The original 1966 and 1967 stations are among the most crowded on the Montreal Metro - and that was true when I lived there in the early 1980s as well. Well, other than Ile-Ste-Helene - but Longueil is certainly busy.

 

[zang]

We're done now.

I see.

If you block me again, make it permanent, okay? I'm tired of the righteous indignation when I write something you don't like.

 

[Northern Light]

I see.

If you block me again, make it permanent, okay? I'm tired of the righteous indignation when I write something you don't like.

You're welcome to block me.

I will endeavour to ignore you more, as per your request, however, I will not allow misinformation to go uncorrected.

 

[Northern Light]

As a side note to the above discussion, Sheppard Subway Daily ridership peaked at 50,400 in 2011-2012: (bold is edited for accuracy)

Line 4 Sheppard - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The overall subway network, according to TTC is running at 76% of pre-pandemic ridership.

https://cdn.ttc.ca/-/media/Project/TTC/DevProto/Documents/Home/Transparency-and-accountability/Reports/KPI-Reports/July-2025-Monthly-Metrics-Report.pdf?rev=72260e0300ec423491b3b2ec0dfafbeb&hash=908CB3E85F6DDCFA7CAE34F422310775

This is not broken down by line........

However, in my experience, TTC is running with significant numbers of standees in off-peak periods, and can be jammed during peak.

I would therefore conclude some portion of the low number is the result of insufficient service to support more.

I would also note that T-Thu weeikday ridership is considerably higher than M, F ridership which draws down the weekday average in a misleading way.

With increasing back-to-the office mandates over the next few months, I expect those numbers will spike, as much as the TTC allows by way of providing the requisite service.

 

[zang]

That's probably for the truncated. But 11 million isn't even coming close to 15 million?

Personally, I wouldn't call just slightly under ¾ close. Is a B close to an A+? To each their own I guess.

It would be interesting to find what the original year 1 and year 2 Sheppard ridership was. The earliest I can find is 47,700 in the 2009/2010 report.

I do know I've seen numbers elsewhere. Will look again in the morning.

Then TTC Chair Josh Colle said this in 2015:

"Extending the Sheppard line east to the Scarborough Town Centre or drawing it west to close the subway loop at Downsview appear to make sense. But given the existing Sheppard subway’s performance, Colle says he can’t rationalize pouring more money into a tunnel. The existing four stops are already underperforming. While the rest of the TTC is bursting at the seams, Sheppard’s ridership remains flat.

In its first decade — from its opening in late 2002 to 2011 — it showed gains, from about 10.7 million riders annually to a peak of 15.9 million. Since then, the counts show a slight drop — to 15.1 million last year.

The TTC doesn’t consider that a statistically significant decline. Still, says Colle, you could put those riders in taxis for about the same cost as the $10-plus per ride subsidy he figures Sheppard requires.

The TTC doesn’t plan service based on profitability, although some lines, the King streetcar for example, are clearly more than pulling their weight.

“But when you’re so massively subsidizing an existing subway line — higher order transit that’s supposed to bring all those riders — it does make it more difficult to envision seeing a day when you would be investing more above and beyond that,” he said."

I dunno, when the TTC Chair is saying the line is underperforming, I defer to their knowledge. Higher ridership would justify the cost and lower overall subsidy, right?. I'll also point out the most recent ridership numbers of 38,705/day September 2023 to August 2024 roughly equals 14m a year. And that period was not improved over the 2022 numbers. That means it's slightly declined, while Line 1 and 2 are rising and proportionally closer to their pre-pandemic numbers.

Now, I don't believe that there shouldn't be subsidized transit. Far from it. But there are times when poor choices are made in the name of politics and we end up with something that doesn't fit and only costs us the ability to do more in the future.