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Extremely surprised noone has mentioned this today or over the last few days. Today, July 28th is exactly 90 days from October 26, 2025, the start of the TTC board period exactly 42 days after the September 14, 2025 board period. Given that it has been hypothesized that Line 5 cannot start operations during the winter months, then it is highly possible that Line 5 will not open until spring 2026. 90 days are needed for revenue service demonstration.
RSD is 30 days not 90 days and which reputable source said that it was impossible for them to open the line during the winter months?
 
RSD is 30 days not 90 days and which reputable source said that it was impossible for them to open the line during the winter months?
My bad, I meant bedding-in, but RSD has not even started yet. 90 days is a best case scenario after "substantial completion" or "SC", and SC occurs after 30 days revenue service has been completed. 14 day trial running has not even been confirmed to have started. That all means a horizon of 120 to 134 days before opening from today, best case a la divine intervention 90 days from today. So October 26th, (impossible due to no announcement today for 90 day notice), November 25th, or December 9th. November and December are impossible bc they don't coincide with a 42 day service summary cycle. The next one after October 26 is December 7th. People speculated (no reputable source) that the TTC cannot open an LRT/streetcar line in winter as the cold weather interferes with testing/revenue demonstration etc... They would play it safe and wait until spring of 2026 if a fall 2025 opening cannot be done. Links to posts with Metrolinx internal info:

 
The next TTC service change date is Sunday, August 31, 2025. TTC service changes are typically implemented approximately every four to six weeks, roughly 10 times a year.

Here's a list of the upcoming service change dates in 2025:
  • Sunday, August 31, 2025
  • Sunday, October 12, 2025
  • Sunday, November 16, 2025
  • Sunday, December 21, 2025
  • Sunday, January 4, 2026
 
RSD is 30 days not 90 days and which reputable source said that it was impossible for them to open the line during the winter months?
Just for fun, I typed this question into Google search:
"can toronto open new transit lines in winter"
Google's "AI overview" had this to say in response, and my responses are in square brackets.
:
Yes, Toronto can and does open new transit lines in the winter. While winter conditions can present challenges for construction and operation, it does not prevent the opening of new lines.
Elaboration:
Construction is ongoing in winter: [What does that have to do with the question?)]
Projects like the Ontario Line are actively under construction during the winter months. [Again, so what? Has nothing to do with the question.]
Operational challenges:
Winter weather can affect train schedules and require extra maintenance, but these are manageable and do not stop operations. [Same response again, has nothing to do with opening new transit lines.]
Public transit is essential:
Toronto relies on its public transit system, and opening new lines is a priority, even in winter.
[Aha, now we might be getting somewhere! There is a little symbol beside this, which is supposed to provide examples or elaboration. The examples turned out to be: Ontario Line again, and "Remarks by the Deputy Prime Minister announceing $1.2 billion for Toronto, in 2024..." Oh dear, once again, nothing to do with the question asked.]
Examples:
The Eglinton Crosstown LRT, for instance, is slated to open in the future, with some sections already in service, and this process includes winter operations. [Well that's certainly news to all of us!]

If anyone wants to comment on this further, go ahead. I'm too appalled to continue.
 
The next TTC service change date is Sunday, August 31, 2025. TTC service changes are typically implemented approximately every four to six weeks, roughly 10 times a year.

Here's a list of the upcoming service change dates in 2025:
  • Sunday, August 31, 2025
  • Sunday, October 12, 2025
  • Sunday, November 16, 2025
  • Sunday, December 21, 2025
  • Sunday, January 4, 2026
I am wrong and you are definitely correct, I incorrectly went off the 42 day/6 week cycle as seen in the last X months:

Also I was wrong about the 14+30+90 day horizon, it's actually more like 14+30+14+90 (trial running, revenue service demo, substantial completion confirmation/certification, 90 day bedding-in) so max of 148 days from announcement of the start of trial running. This 148 day horizon comes directly from Metrolinx sources from previous posts and the City of Toronto source below. But it seems like they are waiting until substantial completion is confirmed before making a 90 day opening announcement. Worst case if trial running has not even started, then 148 days puts us at December 23, 2025. Which I think we can all agree pushes opening to early January 2026, if not spring 2026.

""Substantial Completion", which is expected to be 14 days after the completion ofRevenue Service Demonstration. Substantial Completion requires an IndependentCertifier to confirm (or certify) that CTS has demonstrated the successful delivery of Line5 to a level of completion suitable for revenue service, consistent with the requirementsin CTS’ contract with Metrolinx."
Source: https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2025/ttc/comm/communicationfile-193597.pdf
 
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I am wrong and you are definitely correct, I incorrectly went off the 42 day/6 week cycle as seen in the last X months:

Also I was wrong about the 14+30+90 day horizon, it's actually more like 14+30+14+90 (trial running, revenue service demo, substantial completion confirmation/certification, 90 day bedding-in) so max of 148 days from announcement of the start of trial running. This 148 day horizon comes directly from Metrolinx sources from previous posts and the City of Toronto source below. But it seems like they are waiting until substantial completion is confirmed before making a 90 day opening announcement. Worst case if trial running has not even started, then 148 days puts us at December 23, 2025. Which I think we can all agree pushes opening to early January 2026, if not spring 2026.

""Substantial Completion", which is expected to be 14 days after the completion ofRevenue Service Demonstration. Substantial Completion requires an IndependentCertifier to confirm (or certify) that CTS has demonstrated the successful delivery of Line5 to a level of completion suitable for revenue service, consistent with the requirementsin CTS’ contract with Metrolinx."
Source: https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2025/ttc/comm/communicationfile-193597.pdf
There is still hope for November 16th, which needs to be announced by August 18th. After that it's game over for a 2025 opening imo.
 
So someone on Reddit just posted, "When the system opens this year, the first part of the line will already be 15 years old."

That's kind of wild to think about. Like imagine taking delivery of your new car and it's already 15 years old. Or imagine moving into a new construction condo but it's already been sitting there for 15 years.

First of all, is this an accurate thing to say? And second of all where would this 'first part' be?

He further implies that because of this the line will need to begin immediate repairs nearly as soon as it opens. Like your car needing its first major service the moment you take delivery. Or your brand new house needing a new roof as soon as you move in.
Hey, at least they updated some of the wayfinding that was already installed with new versions. ;)
 
Literally the last transit line in toronto to open, the Spadina extension, opened in December.
Yes, but that was a fully underground subway.

I have never seen anyone claim that new lines can't be opened in the winter, but I'm personally skeptical. What if there's a snow storm or ice storm? The former would preclude politicians from making speeches and that would never do, and the latter could cause disruption to the operation of the line itself. For a project beset with PR issues, I can't see them risking it.
 
But it seems like they are waiting until substantial completion is confirmed before making a 90 day opening announcement.

Phil Verster made a promise to give 90 days notice but I don't think it's that strong of a promise. What happened to those bimonthly updates also promised? If they made an announcement that the opening was in 2 months, I don't think anyone would be upset that they didn't hold to the 90 day promise.
 
Yes, but that was a fully underground subway.

I have never seen anyone claim that new lines can't be opened in the winter, but I'm personally skeptical. What if there's a snow storm or ice storm? The former would preclude politicians from making speeches and that would never do, and the latter could cause disruption to the operation of the line itself. For a project beset with PR issues, I can't see them risking it.
I find it highly doubtful that a politician would deliberately delay the opening of a ready and finished line for those reasons, since that fact will probably be leaked out eventually. The backlash and lost of reputation would probably be massive.

Also I can't imagine the TTC wanting to pay so many employees to "fake" operate the line for an extra 3 months if they could generate revenue from the line!
 
I find it highly doubtful that a politician would deliberately delay the opening of a ready and finished line for those reasons, since that fact will probably be leaked out eventually. The backlash and lost of reputation would probably be massive.

Also I can't imagine the TTC wanting to pay so many employees to "fake" operate the line for an extra 3 months if they could generate revenue from the line!
on the contrary did you notice that every time theres a delay its all in the name of "safety"??? thats their key word that they always use. i highly doubt that there are any major "safety" related items to complete that warrants a full
media blackout short of a massive deficiency like the rumoured sinking of the underground stations. all these bedding in procedures is to avoid a potential embarrassing bug in the system. honestly though thats what needs to happen
to fully figure out the system. you cant spend forever getting to that 100%. working out the kinks while in service is how you improve.
 
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