[Reecemartin]

Apologies, but I'm trying to understand why you think the capacity is not sufficient with the current 2 vehicle trains.

Line 5 capacity models clearly state that the highest capacity required is around 5,500 pphpd at 2031.

Yeah, my suggestion is that I think the model is wrong. And yes, to some degree thats motivated from experiences with another project built for similar capacity where there was repeated insistence from politicians to cut the capacity of the line, and then ridership has exceeded expectations - a bad situation!

There isn't any reason to suspect that this number is incorrect. 5,500 is also almost triple what the current 34 bus carries on Eglinton. In any case theoretical maximum capacity with the current 2 car trains is around 10,000 pphpd, almost double the expected demand.

I don't agree that there is no reason, there are plenty of reasons! Of course the validity of those is something we will have to wait out to see.

I've said it before in the thread but, the ridership of one (there are a number of bus routes on Eglinton) route is only an indicator of ridership potential. You would hope that rail, faster service, higher frequency, and improved reliability would all act to drive up ridership. Including getting people who are taking other buses, or driving to switch to L5 - we have obviously seen this happen in city after city in the past - its a big part of why we invest in rapid transit.

That is the maximum capacity with two car trains yes, I don't think we have enough LRVs to operate that service level though.

The easiest comparison is the eastern portion of Line 2. Line 2 has a theoretical maximum of around 23,000 pphpd and is close to hitting this maximum during the morning rush. Line 2 has been operating for over 50 years with all the N-S feeder buses dropping passengers at it's station and yet not as busy as the Yonge side of Line 1. Are you under the impression that Line 5 will be similar to this shortly after opening?

L5 won't be similar no, but if it was even a third of the demand things would be crowded! Thats my point. Also L2 has had downward pressure on ridership for a very long time because of congestion at Bloor Yonge etc.

You mention Canada Line being under estimated on usage, but do you have any Toronto based rapid transit projects with under estimated demand? Sheppard Subway, TYSSE, etc?

The best case I have is looking at ridership *estimates* for other projects particularly GO and subway which have always had rather low projected riderships - I assume Metrolinx is overly conservative in their estimates. The other projects you mention are both essentially suburban extensions which have low ridership for various reasons, but which I don't think are comparable to a new crosstown line with numerous rapid transit connections and already lots of dense development.

Theres also the fact that we thought a subway was a sensible thing to build on Eglinton decades ago, before much of the density we have today was built / on the table.

I mention Canada line both because of the similar design capacity, but also because knowing the corridors, Eglinton is denser, more urban and has more feeder buses, it isn't radial which is probably worth something, but the Canada line has lots of demand outside of going to downtown Vancouver.

You're right, I mis-typed when I said the 34 bus has a capacity of 2,000 pphpd. According to the EA for the Crosstown from 2011, the maximum capacity for mixed traffic bus operation is 2,000. Meaning even in the areas of Eglinton East where there are multiple buses, the theoretical maximum is 2,000 pphpd. And that itself is pushing it as it'll be a bus every 1.5 minutes with 50 passengers per bus!

Yeah that number I would question, I've seen significantly higher numbers used to estimate peak hour bus capacity, 2000 might be for one line but I can think of lots of cases where its much much higher.

View attachment 659191

From the Crosstown EA from 2011:
View attachment 659201

Yeah I question the validity of the numbers in the EA. Again they are from a time when Toronto was not growing like it has in the last decade. But also being familiar with ridership numbers for all kinds of lines and systems around the world they feel very low. 5,400 ppdph is not high for a line like this! Most other "rapid transit" lines in Canada carry significantly more people in peak hour - including in smaller cities like Calgary and Ottawa.

My issues is that I hear a lot of speculation when saying that the expected 5,400 pphpd number is under-estimated and that the line is going to be at capacity very fast, but I don't see any actual evidence of that actually being the case. Has the City or TTC or Metrolinx updated their expected demand numbers?

I believe so, this was why planned service level was increased over the base case.

From the datasheet for the Flexity Freedom:
View attachment 659192

It doesn't inspire confidence that the pictures don't show the vehicle we got!

And then there's the option of adding a 3rd vehicle to each train to increase capacity to very solid 14,400 at the same 2:30 interval. Granted, this might also need the City and the TTC to actually implement signal priority for Line 5. But if we're getting to that situation I think there is a lot of incentive for them to make that decision. Even now the strategy is that trains that are running behind schedule will be able to utilize transit signal priority.

14,400 or 15,000 is not that much! Certainly for a rapid transit line. As you mentioned L2 is far above that despite not having all that much density along most of the corridor, so is something like the Millennium line which is also essentially a crosstown!

My final point is that when we're getting close to the end of life of these LRVs, we should be looking at procuring slightly wider LRVs and looking to create gangways between the 3 cars to further increase capacity (like the TR vs the T1 subway trains).

Whether you can fit wider LRVs is TBD, I would suggest thats unlikely, unless you're going to be shaving back platforms (they are already not super wide from what I can tell) and relocating other infrastructure. You might be able to get trains with a slight barrel as opposed to box cross section.

I guess we're all going to have to wait for the line to open and run for a year or so before we can actually see what the actual real-world demand is going to be.

For sure. And I am certainly biased towards busier because I want people to use transit and I want the system to be as successful as possible! We will see!

 

[crs1026]

The numbers from the EA are pretty much moot IMHO. We have changed plans and projections of density so much across the upper city that only time will tell if we have added enough transit capacity for the density as it appears.

The bigger benefit that Line 5 leverages is the number of north-south riders who no longer will need to go all the way to St Clair or Bloor to connect to higher-order transit for their east-west journey. This is not simply a factor of density, but creates much easier access to whole different parts of the city. Today, anyone who lives east of Kennedy and works west of Avenue Road has a long and tortuous commute, likely with at least one bus transfer on the east-west segment. I can see new patterns of living, working, and playing emerging.

The biggest risk is still the prospect that the ride east of Leaside will be a plodding streetcar ride and not a more speedy rapid transit ride. Again, time will tell. Shame on us if that happens.

- Paul

 

[Monarch Butterfly]

There are TTC board meetings scheduled for June 23, 2025 and July 17, 2025 (subject to change). We'll see if the Line 5 opening announcement will happen by or on those dates.

 

[nfitz]

And yes, to some degree thats motivated from experiences with another project built for similar capacity where there was repeated insistence from politicians to cut the capacity of the line, and then ridership has exceeded expectations - a bad situation!

Hang on. I pointed out above that the ridership (2023 or 2024) on the Canada Line was less than the 2025 ridership they had estimated before it opened. Yes, the early ridership did exceed the expectations for 2010; but it has grown at a much lower rate than anticipated (which isn't surprising, I really don't see the amount of development on Cambie as I'd have expected).

That is the maximum capacity with two car trains yes, I don't think we have enough LRVs to operate that service level though.

Then we get more. Hardly a big deal.

 

[nfitz]

The numbers from the EA are pretty much moot IMHO. We have changed plans and projections of density so much across the upper city that only time will tell if we have added enough transit capacity for the density as it appears.

The 2030s estimate included density increases. And that the Don Mills LRT would be feeding Eglinton; which won't be happening. Heck, if anything, I'd think the Ontario Line will syphon a bit of ridership off Line 5 - though perhaps not at the peak point near Cedarvale.

The bigger benefit that Line 5 leverages is the number of north-south riders who no longer will need to go all the way to St Clair or Bloor to connect to higher-order transit for their east-west journey.

In the east at least, north-south buses move surprisingly quickly south of Eglinton, without major pinch points that I see north of Eglinton - at least on Warden on Victoria Park. Yeah, Don Mills 25 is slow - but that will change once the Ontario line opens.

 

[cplchanb]

geez... i cant believe we wasted 2+ pgs here on an never ending argument over a theoretical calculation that has not even gotten its chance to work itself into reality.

 

[txlseries4]

geez... i cant believe we wasted 2+ pgs here on an never ending argument over a theoretical calculation that has not even gotten its chance to work itself into reality.

relevant xkcd

 

[fanoftoronto]

Yeah, my suggestion is that I think the model is wrong. And yes, to some degree thats motivated from experiences with another project built for similar capacity where there was repeated insistence from politicians to cut the capacity of the line, and then ridership has exceeded expectations - a bad situation!

The best case I have is looking at ridership *estimates* for other projects particularly GO and subway which have always had rather low projected riderships - I assume Metrolinx is overly conservative in their estimates. The other projects you mention are both essentially suburban extensions which have low ridership for various reasons, but which I don't think are comparable to a new crosstown line with numerous rapid transit connections and already lots of dense development.

Theres also the fact that we thought a subway was a sensible thing to build on Eglinton decades ago, before much of the density we have today was built / on the table.

I mention Canada line both because of the similar design capacity, but also because knowing the corridors, Eglinton is denser, more urban and has more feeder buses, it isn't radial which is probably worth something, but the Canada line has lots of demand outside of going to downtown Vancouver.

I'm still failing to see what other experiences with other projects you mention. Vague mention of other projects particulartly GO and subway doesn't get the message across. Which GO projects? Which subway projects? The most recent subway projects were TYSSE and Sheppard, both of which you called suburban extensions. GO by definition is suburban so by your own point that is moot when comparing against Line 5. So what high density GO or Subway projects within Toronto do you have experience with where the ridership numbers were vastly under-estimated?

By your logic, then is the Ontario Line demand forecast also under-estimated, meaning that it'll be at max capacity at opening?

The Eglinton subway was expected to have even lower ridership than the Sheppard Line and we all know how under-utilized the Sheppard Line is. The Eglinton subway was proposed only to appease the west side of Toronto with a rapid transit project when the east was getting one with the Sheppard. I don't think that's a very good point to argue.

I don't agree that there is no reason, there are plenty of reasons! Of course the validity of those is something we will have to wait out to see.

I've said it before in the thread but, the ridership of one (there are a number of bus routes on Eglinton) route is only an indicator of ridership potential. You would hope that rail, faster service, higher frequency, and improved reliability would all act to drive up ridership. Including getting people who are taking other buses, or driving to switch to L5 - we have obviously seen this happen in city after city in the past - its a big part of why we invest in rapid transit.

That is the maximum capacity with two car trains yes, I don't think we have enough LRVs to operate that service level though.

Ridership on the buses is the first point from where the basis needs to start to create a potential ridership model for Line 5. This is why the Line 1 and Line 2 were well used right at the outset. They replaced streetcars that were running at highest frequency meaning the starting point itself was much higher. Additionally, the fact that we have an on-surface LRT itself is a reason to skip transferring to Line 5 with a lot of folks opting to ride it out on the bus until Line 2 which will be much faster due to the grade separation and faster top speeds.

Yeah that number I would question, I've seen significantly higher numbers used to estimate peak hour bus capacity, 2000 might be for one line but I can think of lots of cases where its much much higher.

Please share the source of the significantly higher bus capacity. 2,000 pphpd is based on a 50 passenger bus coming by every 90 seconds. We can hardly do that with ATC operated trains, do you really think that is possible with mixed-traffic buses?

As seen below, mixed-traffic buses peak at 2,000 pphpd. You'd need BRT to take buses further.

It doesn't inspire confidence that the pictures don't show the vehicle we got!

It's basically the same. The only difference I see is that there is only 1 set of doors instead of 2 sets in the 2nd and 4th section of the train. The dimensions and capacity will be the same as the table.

14,400 or 15,000 is not that much! Certainly for a rapid transit line. As you mentioned L2 is far above that despite not having all that much density along most of the corridor, so is something like the Millennium line which is also essentially a crosstown!

15,000 is also 7 times as much as the current max capacity and almost 3 times as much as the expected demand of the line at opening day.

For sure. And I am certainly biased towards busier because I want people to use transit and I want the system to be as successful as possible! We will see!

Definitely agreed. I would love to see more transit options all across the city and increased transit usage by all!

geez... i cant believe we wasted 2+ pgs here on an never ending argument over a theoretical calculation that has not even gotten its chance to work itself into reality.

As true as your statement is, if we didn't have these arguments, then this thread would only have half as many pages! I think what we can all agree is that Metrolinx absolutely sh*t the bed on this project that we're 5 years past the original opening date forcing us to continue having these types of arguments. I hate the word argument in this context. I see it as questionably healthy debate!

 

[Reecemartin]

I guess the macro reason for my feelings about all of this is that I think Toronto has sort of systematically overvalued extensions at the edges of the system and undervalued crosstown, orbital, and connector routes.

Many crosstown and orbital lines are among the busiest in the largest metro systems in the world. Routes with lots of connections like the Elizabeth line, Victoria line, Paris L14 etc have all done much better than modelling suggested.

Even within Toronto Line 2 *seems* less busy than Line 1, but thats because line 1 is really two radial lines coupled downtown, Line 2 does very well compared to either leg of Line 1. The 407 GO bus also does very well, along with loads of the east west crosstown buses on Steeles, Finch, Sheppard etc.

We haven't opened a new crosstown route in decades, and we've never opened something with so many connections to other lines (and with good connections). I think the consensus in the int. transit community is that the more connections you make the more unexpected new trips may become viable or faster with the new infrastructure.

 

[Northern Light]

There are TTC board meetings scheduled for June 23, 2025 and July 17, 2025 (subject to change). We'll see if the Line 5 opening announcement will happen by or on those dates.

You missed one meeting of consequence between those........

The first ever meeting of the TTC's new Strategic Planning Committee on July 10th:

Toronto City Council

secure.toronto.ca

 

[Reecemartin]

By your logic, then is the Ontario Line demand forecast also under-estimated, meaning that it'll be at max capacity at opening?

I'll end my responses here so we don't get off topic - but yeah I'd guess it was underestimated for sure! I think the speed and connections will make it very compelling, as well as the number of somewhat annoying to get to places that will now have subway service.

That being said, that hopefully won't mean max capacity at day one, since day one will only see 80 meter trains and I think at 2 min rather than 90 second headways, so there will be room to expand capacity a fair amount 25% in frequency and 25% in vehicles!

 

[Monarch Butterfly]

You missed one meeting of consequence between those........

The first ever meeting of the TTC's new Strategic Planning Committee on July 10th:

Toronto City Council

secure.toronto.ca

"The Strategic Planning Committee assists the TTC Board to guide long-term planning focused on service, fare, safety and customer experience initiatives in support of customer growth. The Strategic Planning Committee also provides advice and insights on emerging priorities, scenarios and critical issues for the TTC’s annual budget process, including evaluating new opportunities, assessing risks, and ensuring alignment between financial resources and opportunities to grow ridership in the immediate and long-term."

 

[stevensontransit]

Would this upcoming announcement with Ford, Chow, and Surma have anything to do with the Eglinton Crosstown and/or the Finch West LRT?:

 

[nfitz]

Would this upcoming announcement with Ford, Chow, and Surma have anything to do with the Eglinton Crosstown and/or the Finch West LRT?:

That would be my guess - though I'd think TTC and Metrolinx would be there too. The timing is about right.

Eglinton I'd assume, as the indications we've got is the training/ops are slightly ahead of Finch.

 

[Monarch Butterfly]

Would this upcoming announcement with Ford, Chow, and Surma have anything to do with the Eglinton Crosstown and/or the Finch West LRT?:


View attachment 659369View attachment 659370

Shouldn't former Premier Mike Harris be there?