^ I could be wrong but I think part of Reece's point is that for Eglinton East more than just the 34 serves it. Would your calculation need to be adjusted then?
You're right, I mis-typed when I said the 34 bus has a capacity of 2,000 pphpd. According to the EA for the Crosstown from 2011, the maximum capacity for mixed traffic bus operation is 2,000. Meaning even in the areas of Eglinton East where there are multiple buses, the theoretical maximum is 2,000 pphpd. And that itself is pushing it as it'll be a bus every 1.5 minutes with 50 passengers per bus!
The LRV for Eglinton has a maximum crush load capacity of 251 per vehicle, meaning 502 per 2-vehicle trainset. Even being conservative and using a capacity of 400, we will only need 1 two-vehicle train per 4 minutes to meet the expected demand. Increasing this to one train ever 2:30 would yield a capacity of 9,600 pphpd which far exceeds the expected 5,400.
From the Crosstown EA from 2011:
My issues is that I hear a lot of speculation when saying that the expected 5,400 pphpd number is under-estimated and that the line is going to be at capacity very fast, but I don't see any actual evidence of that actually being the case. Has the City or TTC or Metrolinx updated their expected demand numbers?
From the datasheet for the Flexity Freedom:
And then there's the option of adding a 3rd vehicle to each train to increase capacity to very solid 14,400 at the same 2:30 interval. Granted, this might also need the City and the TTC to actually implement signal priority for Line 5. But if we're getting to that situation I think there is a lot of incentive for them to make that decision. Even now the strategy is that trains that are running behind schedule will be able to utilize transit signal priorit
My final point is that when we're getting close to the end of life of these LRVs, we should be looking at procuring slightly wider LRVs and looking to create gangways between the 3 cars to further increase capacity (like the TR vs the T1 subway trains).
I guess we're all going to have to wait for the line to open and run for a year or so before we can actually see what the actual real-world demand is going to be.