Since it bears repeating......
A two-car coupled train every 8 minutes will be sufficient to handle the loads that were carried on the buses during the morning rush hour prior to COVID or even prior to when construction started.
The service on day 1 will be more frequent than that at rush hour.
Dan
I think it's worth remembering that the a big part of the point of creating a rapid transit line here is not just added capacity but an improved level of service. Obviously bus ridership is an
indicator of corridor demand, but demand is not fixed. If Eglinton is a far superior level of service (as we should hope, and it certainly will be on parts of the route) to the existing buses which (having regularly used Toronto suburban buses - including on Eglinton) are slow and uncomfortable and sometimes inconsistent - we should expect a significant ridership uplift. In addition I of all people don't like the "people
way prefer buses to trains" line - but it also isn't totally false.
Again, it wouldn't be the first time a rail service replaced a bus and ridership went way up, especially in the Canadian context where people are generally very open to taking transit.
As I have noted previously, it is unwise (used in lieu of a stronger term) to attempt to predict demand on Line 5 when Ontario Line will be coming along, when the original intent for Transit City had rail to Thorncliffe in a far future Phase 2.
However, even it does saturate in places faster than more vehicles can be put in service… we can operate buses in those areas and accommodate thousands of additional riders who are on short trips like Brentcliffe to Leaside High School! There isn’t a non-compete.
I agree that it's hard to predict demand, but I think
lots of it will be even just on the "subway" section west of Laird. Being so central to the network (enabling journeys between Yonge and Spadina, but also the Kitchener line), its going to be heavily used - even if a lot of traffic is on and off and that means efficient vehicle utilization, we know that the doors on these vehicles aren't fast, and boarding will not be as fast as the subway, so I don't think expecting pressure is unreasonable.
Of course we
can run buses, but Yonge is a super crowded rail line and we oddly don't run a
ton of buses there. Eglinton also has a fairly tight stop spacing even in the subway section, so if we have to run a lot of bus service anytime soon spacing won't be ideal.
I see no world where it would be more efficient to add buses, or that massively surplus capacity of Line 5 will be exceeded!
I think if any proclamation was unwise it would be suggesting Line 5 will have
massive surplus capacity and I can only imagine this is an attempt at being edgy. L5 has substantially less capacity than the existing subway, but will cut a direct and fairly fast route across the centre of the city (which in many places is densifying more than along say Danforth or parts of Bloor), even if demand was 50% what it is on Bloor the line would be very full!
What I will say is I know ridership estimates have been revised upwards, and the planned frequencies have increased over time (which is good irregardless). But it wouldn't be the first time we've guessed demand incorrectly.
Anyways all of this is conjecture, the line will open soon enough and then in the coming decade we will
see firsthand how things shake out. I don't
want the line to be painfully crowded, it would make using it less attractive and uncomfortable and feel like we really missed an opportunity on a key corridor, I'm just . . . concerned. We will see.