[Allandale25]

^ Interesting that they assumed "real inflation" to be 0%. Would that be one of the reasons for the cost increase from the IBC? Also, it looks like this was done on $2020 dollars. I wonder if the amount in the report to the board reflects current dollars and that's a factor.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

^ Interesting that they assumed "real inflation" to be 0%. Would that be one of the reasons for the cost increase from the IBC? Also, it looks like this was done on $2020 dollars. I wonder if the amount in the report to the board reflects current dollars and that's a factor.

View attachment 661242

Sure there is inflation, but 100% increase between 2020 to 2025 figures?

AoD

 

[Thaboss]

wonder if the amount in the report to the board reflects current dollars and that's a factor.

I believe overall Inflation between 2020 - 2025 is 20 percent aprox. Sooo no

More likely several factors have a much bigger impact.

1. One year delay
2. High intrest rate environment
3. Inflation
4. Classic underestimating costs to sell the project. Ie. The project was always going to cost much more but cook the books until you have to reveal the real costs.

How the hell the above doubles costs...lord only knows. Metrolinx certainly wont tell us.

I find the initial estimates disgusting....doubling those estimates seems insane. But when they package 30 years of operation into the total costs, numbers will always look big.

 

[nfitz]

Good job they started tunnelling from the far end of the extension. I wonder if they'll try and cut Lawrence East station again.

 

[NIV]

My guess is the biggest cost overrun has to do with the TBM problems. Strabag had an initial contract of $757.1 million to tunnel the 7.8 km’s with a timeline of just over 2 years. We need to demand transparency from Metrolinx! Who made the decision to use a single bore TBM at this depth knowing these soil conditions from the hundreds of core samples taken?

 

[Irishmonk]

The cost increases are absurd and, frankly, scandalous. There needs to be a public inquiry on this.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I believe overall Inflation between 2020 - 2025 is 20 percent aprox. Sooo no

More likely several factors have a much bigger impact.

1. One year delay
2. High intrest rate environment
3. Inflation
4. Classic underestimating costs to sell the project. Ie. The project was always going to cost much more but cook the books until you have to reveal the real costs.

How the hell the above doubles costs...lord only knows. Metrolinx certainly wont tell us.

I find the initial estimates disgusting....doubling those estimates seems insane. But when they package 30 years of operation into the total costs, numbers will always look big.

Except the IBC actually added not 30, but 60 years of operational costs.

AoD

 

[chrisw]

@AlvinofDiaspar The IBC uses the Net Present Value to discount the future costs by 3.5% per year (this is on top of already discounting inflation). Less impact for those future costs.

While I think the other figure is calculated differently with inflation and an escalator and then just adding all the values up?

 

[Thaboss]

Except the IBC actually added not 30, but 60 years of operational costs.

AoD

I see that now.

Is 60 years industry standard?

Regardless, that makes the maintenence and operation costs see much more reasonable to me.

Construction costs still see way out of line though.

You know it would be interesting to see what automating the line would cost in capital expenditure that you would then get back in operational savings over that same period of time...

 

[Aplus23]

I just heard on the news that Metrolinx said the TBM stoppage "were planned"

 

[Amare]

I just heard on the news that Metrolinx said the TBM stoppage "were planned"

Much in the same way Metrolinx has "planned" the Crosstown line to be delayed year, after year, after year, after year, after year....

 

[rbt]

I just heard on the news that Metrolinx said the TBM stoppage "were planned"

It probably was. They hit an obstruction then made a plan to clear it; making it a planned stoppage.

Same as a new parent plans to change their shirt after the baby spits-up on it.

 

[PL1]

It probably was. They hit an obstruction then made a plan to clear it; making it a planned stoppage.

Same as a new parent plans to change their shirt after the baby spits-up on it.

Or how I had surgery after breaking my ankle. Absolutely planned!

ML really likes twisting themselves into knots rather than being truthful and transparent.

 

[evandyk]

There's a lengthy debate about 30 pages up about whether Metrolinx's communications on this are bald-faced lies or technical truths designed to mislead the public. Certainly no suggestion that they're truthful and transparent.

 

[syn]

The real head scratcher is why this extension couldn't have been built mostly above ground.

Because one of the main reasons this extension is being built this way is as rejection of above-ground transit.

At the time, anything that wasn't a subway was seen as unfair to Scarborough, especially if it involved a transfer.

I recall discussions about the cost ballooning (or doubling) were often rejected. This report is not a surprise - and I wouldn't be shocked if it goes much higher before the extension is complete.