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The trouble Toronto has is that the powers that be do not want to build any rapid transit in the city or GTA. We're are very slow in expanding Toronto rapid transit network. In fact, Toronto shrank between 2010 and 2024.

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A little besides the point but that 2010 map is wrong, it mistakenly includes Downsview Park which only opened in 2017 (also incorrectly calling it Downsview and Downsview as Sheppard West which it was not then known as)
 
From the Transit Network Expansion Update to the TTC Board, a draft IBC was provided by Metrolinx in May 2025,

The Sheppard Subway Extension (ShSE) is a subway expansion project led by Metrolinx, which looks at potentially extending Line 4 east toward Scarborough and west to Sheppard West Station. A draft Initial Business Case (IBC) was provided by Metrolinx in May 2025, which will include an analysis of different alignment options and technology. There are ongoing discussions between TTC, City, and Metrolinx staff to co-ordinate and identify risks and interface challenges between the Province’s Sheppard Subway Extension and the EELRT project.

 
There are ongoing discussions between TTC, City, and Metrolinx staff to co-ordinate and identify risks and interface challenges between the Province’s Sheppard Subway Extension and the EELRT project.
I hope the discussion is a redesign of the EELRT to terminate at Scarborough Centre which is where the Sheppard Subway should route to instead of Sheppard-McCowan.
 
I hope the discussion is a redesign of the EELRT to terminate at Scarborough Centre which is where the Sheppard Subway should route to instead of Sheppard-McCowan.
Forcing riders where they don't want to go in the first place and lack of riders in the first place. Also extra transfering. Networks don't work that way and I have opposed it from day one.
 
Forcing riders where they don't want to go in the first place and lack of riders in the first place. Also extra transfering. Networks don't work that way and I have opposed it from day one.
In what universe would this lead to extra transferring.....except for the handful of people who want to go to Sheppard and McCowan. Those wanting to go beyond in either direction will have to transfer anyways. Also, forcing riders where they don't want to go? Lack of riders? Are you serious? STC has a lot of riders. And they are making it into a larger hub.
 
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In what universe would this lead to extra transferring.....except for the handful of people who want to go to Sheppard and McCowan. Those wanting to go beyond in either direction will have to transfer anyways. Also, forcing riders where they don't want to go? Lack of riders? Are you serious? STC has a lot of riders. And they are making it into a larger hub.
Have you ridden the STC sheppard Express and local buses to from Don Mills to see what riderships is like at various times of the day and the day of the week?? I have as I have gone out of my way to do so.

Lot of riders at STC doesn't mean enough riders to justify a subway. We already have a white elephant subway on Sheppard that is a money pit since day one with TTC wanting to close it with city policy saying no. 50/60,000 riders a day does not justify a subway let alone an LRT with a BRT being far cheaper and fast to built but would go LRT on day one.

Where are all those riders going using the SRT current hub as it not to Don Mills or Downtown Toronto???

There are numerous LRT systems in the US that do not meet the threshold for it in the first place that sees less than 10,000 riders a day. Only have to go to Buffalo and Detroit to see them. Washington DC streetcar line open in 2016 2 years late that sees 800,000 free riders a year and will be scrap in 2027
 
We already have a white elephant subway on Sheppard that is a money pit since day one with TTC wanting to close it with city policy saying no

It's only a white elephant because it goes literally nowhere useful.

Mind you, with all the condos and commercial going up near Yonge and Bayview there is some use for it.
 
Where are all those riders going using the SRT current hub as it not to Don Mills or Downtown Toronto???

With great respect Drum the subway's justification is not people already riding transit today for existing trips, that might count for 20% of opening day ridership.

The object is clearly to take people off the 401 for comparatively local trips (within the City of Toronto) and to make some trips possible that are not practical today, as well as to support significant new development.

The Sheppard subway is full in rush hour, which is remarkable for a short-haul, 5 station route. But it has done everything asked of it, and more, which is to say it has spurred on significant new residential development near everyone one of its stations.

But more, far more, is coming on the existing route, at Don Mills Station alone there are proposals exceeding 5,000 units in the offing, another 3,000+ near Bessarion and Leslie, thousands more at Bayview and up Bayview (Tyndale Green) that will feed into the existing line.

If the TTC ran six-car trains, as they will, the development on the existing route would see them full at current frequencies within 15 years.

***

The extended line, before factoring in for new development will connection to a major employment node at Victoria Park, provide a like to Stouffville GO, but most importantly, in the west, will line link to Downsview, set to be a huge node in its own right, but also creating a relatively quick link to York University from the east.

Add to that, this will vast levels of suburban intensification just as it has on the existing corridor.

Very conservative modelling suggests a ridership increase of ~200% on opening day.

There are numerous LRT systems in the US that do not meet the threshold for it in the first place that sees less than 10,000 riders a day. Only have to go to Buffalo and Detroit to see them. Washington DC streetcar line open in 2016 2 years late that sees 800,000 free riders a year and will be scrap in 2027

This is not a good comparison Drum.

Lets start with Line 4 annual ridership: ~15M or about 50,000 daily boardings. About 18x the example above.

But perhaps more importantly, daily ridership per km is ~3,000;

For comparison, the entire London Tube only hits 10,000 (per km); the average per km daily ridership for the Washington DC subway ~3,300.

For a stubway......that's not so bad.

****

Lets add a direct comparison, another stubway. The Rockaways shuttle in NYC. Its almost the exact same length as the current line 4, is serves only 9,000 daily riders.
 
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IO Market Update - October 2025

What a long way we have come. Time for the next batch of projects to make it to active procurement. Sheppard Extension, EGW LRT Airport Extension, Ontario Line North Extension, EG LRT East Extension

Projects in Planning Phase: Transit
Line 4 Extension (Sheppard East) Subway


Haven’t seen anything that indicates OL North is anywhere near planning phase
 
Have you ridden the STC sheppard Express and local buses to from Don Mills to see what riderships is like at various times of the day and the day of the week?? I have as I have gone out of my way to do so.

Lot of riders at STC doesn't mean enough riders to justify a subway. We already have a white elephant subway on Sheppard that is a money pit since day one with TTC wanting to close it with city policy saying no. 50/60,000 riders a day does not justify a subway let alone an LRT with a BRT being far cheaper and fast to built but would go LRT on day one.

Where are all those riders going using the SRT current hub as it not to Don Mills or Downtown Toronto???

There are numerous LRT systems in the US that do not meet the threshold for it in the first place that sees less than 10,000 riders a day. Only have to go to Buffalo and Detroit to see them. Washington DC streetcar line open in 2016 2 years late that sees 800,000 free riders a year and will be scrap in 2027
Are you advocating against a Sheppard extension and Scarborough LRT entirely? Or is this still a response to my comment that the Sheppard extension (and Scarborough LRT if ever built) should go to Scarborough Centre instead of Sheppard-McCowan?
 
Are you advocating against a Sheppard extension and Scarborough LRT entirely? Or is this still a response to my comment that the Sheppard extension (and Scarborough LRT if ever built) should go to Scarborough Centre instead of Sheppard-McCowan?
I opposed the subway extension and support the LRT plam in place of a BRT.built to be upgraded to an LRT in the future.
 
With great respect Drum the subway's justification is not people already riding transit today for existing trips, that might count for 20% of opening day ridership.

The object is clearly to take people off the 401 for comparatively local trips (within the City of Toronto) and to make some trips possible that are not practical today, as well as to support significant new development.

The Sheppard subway is full in rush hour, which is remarkable for a short-haul, 5 station route. But it has done everything asked of it, and more, which is to say it has spurred on significant new residential development near everyone one of its stations.

But more, far more, is coming on the existing route, at Don Mills Station alone there are proposals exceeding 5,000 units in the offing, another 3,000+ near Bessarion and Leslie, thousands more at Bayview and up Bayview (Tyndale Green) that will feed into the existing line.

If the TTC ran six-car trains, as they will, the development on the existing route would see them full at current frequencies within 15 years.

***

The extended line, before factoring in for new development will connection to a major employment node at Victoria Park, provide a like to Stouffville GO, but most importantly, in the west, will line link to Downsview, set to be a huge node in its own right, but also creating a relatively quick link to York University from the east.

Add to that, this will vast levels of suburban intensification just as it has on the existing corridor.

Very conservative modelling suggests a ridership increase of ~200% on opening day.



This is not a good comparison Drum.

Lets start with Line 4 annual ridership: ~15M or about 50,000 daily boardings. About 18x the example above.

But perhaps more importantly, daily ridership per km is ~3,000;

For comparison, the entire London Tube only hits 10,000 (per km); the average per km daily ridership for the Washington DC subway ~3,300.

For a stubway......that's not so bad.

****

Lets add a direct comparison, another stubway. The Rockaways shuttle in NYC. Its almost the exact same length as the current line 4, is serves only 9,000 daily riders.
You start looking at today numbers as a base to build the future numbers for ridership then look at the corridor for future developments that will add more riders down the road, then look at the area where the line will stop that will see a larger development area andthen to what is been feed into that hub. You also look to see where points of interest could be that will attract riders from other parts of the line or feeder lines to the line to give you a projected number what ridership maybe on opening day, 20-50 years down the road. I never use today numbers to say X should or should not bebuilt. It is hard to say where X lives or works as a lot of X's will change jobs, relocate for various reasons. Then you have X company located in one place only to see it move to another location down the road to been down size or close their doors.

There is a big different between 10,000 a day to 3 -10,000 per hour to justify a type of syxtem. I can go into detail on the various LRT that has low ridership and fall below the threshold to jusity it in the first place, but will not at this time.. That is 10 systems that I ridden on in the US. There are a lot of BRT systems been built in NA these days than in the past.

Both Washington and Atlanta subways are commuter rail lines with stations far a part like GO Stations and have ridden them a number of times as well the various lines. They run as 4-8 car trains depending on the time of the day, type of service as well the line.

In 2006 while still wet behind the ear when ML was been born, I came up with a GTAH Transit Plan and within a few years various lines where down scale or removed from the plan. I call for back then that the Sheppard subway ran from the airport to Pickering Town Centre only to be scale back to an LRT that could at some future date go to Pickering. This was after I had a real look at the line.

I have been asked of the decades by reports why does TTC go to subways from a bus route and not look at other moulds between them. Political needs is the answers as well making more room for cars on the surface.
 
It's only a white elephant because it goes literally nowhere useful.

Mind you, with all the condos and commercial going up near Yonge and Bayview there is some use for it.
It will still be a white elephant if the line got built to VP as plan. All you are doing is moving one transfer pointo to another location for those going east of VP or using VP.

The amount of development around Yonge and Bayview are servicing two different things as well where riders want to go. You need to add Concord Place and Emerald City to the picture for ridership.

As someone who has follow all of Concord Place and Emerald City projects as we; some of Yonge and Bayview developments, ridership has bearly grown for the stations that service these developments. It bee said Bayview developments as well Concord Place mainly use the 401 than use transit. Emerald City residents want to be close to the 404 and 401 with few usinf the subway. Yonge is a mix bag as to what is used as well where they are going.

If and when the OL gets built to Sheppard and to Finch, you will see a better use of the Sheppard Subway but still not justifying it as well the extension.
 

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