[zang]

Which is 100% meaningless, as it incldues the reporting of sexual assault, which was grossly under reported. Remember when #MeToo became huge? It was growing, and then blew up completely in 2018. Sexual abuse reporting has significantly increased, and any bulked together violent crime numbers over an extended period of time have little meaning.

This also includes a rise in reporting on violent acts amongst and perpetrated on the LGBTQ community; a group that had been typically underreported. I know from friends that the Bruce MacArthur case (2018) was a big motivator in getting crimes properly and solidly recorded with police.

 

[zang]

What really changed in 2014 which lead to crime rates going up? Particularly in Canada. And let’s not forget the U.S. is also a violent nation in the G7 and in the Western world despite being tougher on crime. And also deaths from malnutrition increased since 2015 in the U.S.

Are you legitimately asking, because it reads like you already have an answer you're looking for. But the compounding fallout from the Great Recession finally hitting home and Harper's regressive policies come to mind.

 

[NY99]

Are you legitimately asking, because it reads like you already have an answer you're looking for. But the compounding fallout from the Great Recession finally hitting home and Harper's regressive policies come to mind.

This makes absolutely zero sense. You think crime began to increase 6 years following the onset of a major recession?? A time when -- despite the prolonged, slow early recovery -- the economy was improving measurably?

Regarding policy: on a per-capita basis, Harper cut barely anything. His "regressive" cuts were far lower in intensity than the Jean Chretien LPC's, when crime was at a stably low level. This doesn't hold water whatsoever as an analysis.

 

[Northern Light]

@urbanclient

Respectfully, I think your wrong here; and I think its completely inappropriate to muddle national statistics with Toronto ones.

Lets make sure comparisons are as apples to apples as is possible.

This is the Toronto Homicide Count from 2004-2025 (annual)

From TPS Data Analytics

Note that over this period, the City of Toronto's population increased by 1/3 from 2.4M to 3.2M

Homicide rates are normally reflected as per 100k

The number there vary but generally run to a high of around 3.5 down to last year at 1.4.

Smooth the numbers out and you're still looking at reduction of ~40% or more from higher trending years to last year. We're currently on pace for even less.

*****

Ah you say, its just modern medicine saving more traumas! So let's look at shootings instead:

Shootings are the red numbers, and last year was the 2nd lowest in the last 21. This year we're on pace for fewer still. Adjusted against population growth, that's an extraordinary drop.

Even when you look at those lower numbers early in the cycle for the totals (includes discharges that didn't hit anyone); if you up them by 1/3 to reflect population growth they would substantially higher than last year.

****

Now its true, if you taking the broader 'Community Safety Indicators' (which used to be called the major crime index) you do see a negative run over the last decade (though trending down in the last couple of years)

(note, the TPS doesn't have the longer time frame available on its site for this data set)

But even if you take the lower numbers here, remember the population increase, and up them by 1/4 to 1/3. You''ll find today's rate to be comparable to the lowest rate in the last decade.

****

Assaults are indeed up, but if you bury yourself in data, its worth saying that the most serious assaults 'Aggravated Assaults' are down:

The last 2 years the two lowest years in the last decade, and adjust for population are no more than 1/2 the rate of a decade earlier.

The second most serious assault is 'Assault Causing Bodily Harm'

Absolute numbers are at a 10 year high but only barely, and adjust for population are at a 10 year low.

***

So I'm really not into this 'Toronto is less safe now' stuff, I don't see any hard evidence to support it, and plenty than refutes it.

 

[NY99]

@urbanclient

Respectfully, I think your wrong here; and I think its completely inappropriate to muddle national statistics with Toronto ones.

Lets make sure comparisons are as apples to apples as is possible.

This is the Toronto Homicide Count from 2004-2025 (annual)

View attachment 734205

From TPS Data Analytics

Note that over this period, the City of Toronto's population increased by 1/3 from 2.4M to 3.2M

Homicide rates are normally reflected as per 100k

The number there vary but generally run to a high of around 3.5 down to last year at 1.4.

Smooth the numbers out and you're still looking at reduction of ~40% or more from higher trending years to last year. We're currently on pace for even less.

*****

Ah you say, its just modern medicine saving more traumas! So let's look at shootings instead:

View attachment 734207

Shootings are the red numbers, and last year was the 2nd lowest in the last 21. This year we're on pace for fewer still. Adjusted against population growth, that's an extraordinary drop.

Even when you look at those lower numbers early in the cycle for the totals (includes discharges that didn't hit anyone); if you up them by 1/3 to reflect population growth they would substantially higher than last year.

****

Now its true, if you taking the broader 'Community Safety Indicators' (which used to be called the major crime index) you do see a negative run over the last decade (though trending down in the last couple of years)

View attachment 734212

(note, the TPS doesn't have the longer time frame available on its site for this data set)

But even if you take the lower numbers here, remember the population increase, and up them by 1/4 to 1/3. You''ll find today's rate to be comparable to the lowest rate in the last decade.

****

Assaults are indeed up, but if you bury yourself in data, its worth saying that the most serious assaults 'Aggravated Assaults' are down:

View attachment 734220

The last 2 years the two lowest years in the last decade, and adjust for population are no more than 1/2 the rate of a decade earlier.

The second most serious assault is 'Assault Causing Bodily Harm'

View attachment 734221
Absolute numbers are at a 10 year high but only barely, and adjust for population are at a 10 year low.

***

So I'm really not into this 'Toronto is less safe now' stuff, I don't see any hard evidence to support it, and plenty than refutes it.

To be frank, I think it's very, very easy to conflate crime with public disorder. My take on what we're seeing: a minor-to-moderate increase in tangible occurrences of crime (which appear to have levelled off and are now on a downward trend), accompanied by a much more significant increase in visible anti-social behaviour (which is much harder to quantify, leaving people to rely on anecdata. But it shouldn't be discounted). People overestimate the former, because their cortisol levels are spiking more often due to the latter.

 

[Northern Light]

To be frank, I think it's very, very easy to conflate crime with public disorder. I think what we're seeing in the last 10 years, accentuated during the pandemic, is a minor-to-moderate increase in tangible crime statistics (which seem to be now on a downward trend), accompanied by a much more significant increase in visible anti-social behaviour (which is much harder to quantify, leaving people to rely on anecdata. But it shouldn't be discounted). People overestimate the former. Why? Because their cortisol levels are spiking more often than they used to due to the latter.

I agree entirely.

People conflate visible homelessness, open drug use, visible indication of acute mental illness (people yelling at the wind) with risk of criminal violence. They are no the same.

Clearly most, myself included, would appreciate less disorder, but its simply not equatable to violent crime.

 

[zang]

This makes absolutely zero sense. You think crime began to increase 6 years following the onset of a major recession?? A time when -- despite the prolonged, slow early recovery -- the economy was improving measurably?

"The Economy" generally doesn't reflect much on actual people. See; "Dow Jones at 50,000".

In 2009, manufacturing jobs shrunk by 11% over 2008 reports. Declines had been 5% or less in previous years. It was a precipitous drop that has never recovered.

"Jobs numbers" and "Unemployment rates" rarely reflect the quality of the jobs, whether said job provides a living wage, and if new employment after job losses reflect previous income levels.

Housing prices in Canada had been relatively stable through the 1990s, but come the 2000s started a parabolic arch with the arc really starting to trend upwards starting around 2007.

Tell me, what happens when things like making less income and higher housing costs start compounding on those who lost jobs and had to take lower salaries and lesser employment?

Oh hey, a whopping rate of 14.5% of the population below the poverty line in 2015. That number has dropped by 2020, but has been back on the incline since the pandemic.

Crime and poverty are directly related:

Poverty And Crime Statistics | 2026 Edition

Our in-depth market data report on Poverty And Crime. Explore verified statistics and the latest research.

worldmetrics.org

 

[urbanclient]

@urbanclient

Respectfully, I think your wrong here; and I think its completely inappropriate to muddle national statistics with Toronto ones.

Lets make sure comparisons are as apples to apples as is possible.

This is the Toronto Homicide Count from 2004-2025 (annual)

View attachment 734205

From TPS Data Analytics

Note that over this period, the City of Toronto's population increased by 1/3 from 2.4M to 3.2M

Homicide rates are normally reflected as per 100k

The number there vary but generally run to a high of around 3.5 down to last year at 1.4.

Smooth the numbers out and you're still looking at reduction of ~40% or more from higher trending years to last year. We're currently on pace for even less.

*****

Ah you say, its just modern medicine saving more traumas! So let's look at shootings instead:

View attachment 734207

Shootings are the red numbers, and last year was the 2nd lowest in the last 21. This year we're on pace for fewer still. Adjusted against population growth, that's an extraordinary drop.

Even when you look at those lower numbers early in the cycle for the totals (includes discharges that didn't hit anyone); if you up them by 1/3 to reflect population growth they would substantially higher than last year.

****

Now its true, if you taking the broader 'Community Safety Indicators' (which used to be called the major crime index) you do see a negative run over the last decade (though trending down in the last couple of years)

View attachment 734212

(note, the TPS doesn't have the longer time frame available on its site for this data set)

But even if you take the lower numbers here, remember the population increase, and up them by 1/4 to 1/3. You''ll find today's rate to be comparable to the lowest rate in the last decade.

****

Assaults are indeed up, but if you bury yourself in data, its worth saying that the most serious assaults 'Aggravated Assaults' are down:

View attachment 734220

The last 2 years the two lowest years in the last decade, and adjust for population are no more than 1/2 the rate of a decade earlier.

The second most serious assault is 'Assault Causing Bodily Harm'

View attachment 734221
Absolute numbers are at a 10 year high but only barely, and adjust for population are at a 10 year low.

***

So I'm really not into this 'Toronto is less safe now' stuff, I don't see any hard evidence to support it, and plenty than refutes it.

I believe you've missed one of my previous long posts lol. I already graphed the homicide rate using the raw numbers you posted against the Stats Canada estimates that went as high as 3.27 million, so as not to inaccurately inflate the homicide rate.

Things will make more sense if one goes back a few pages to see the whole string of posts.

Now, I'm not saying the every measured crime stat in the City of Toronto or Toronto CMA is higher in the last 5 years than the previous 10, 15, 20. However, there are stat-generating crimes that people are likely to notice even if they don't look up said stats.

My opinion, which you are free to disagree with, is that public perception of safety is degraded, so people feel crime is worse. This hinges on 3 things: VCSI is up, auto theft rates are up, homelessness is up.

If we believe the VCSI is a good representation of violent crime, then that is up. Car thefts are still several times higher than a decade ago in both the CMA and City proper (see previous post). Homelessness is up as well. I'm quoting the notably left-wing John Howard Society, when I said "homelessness is a correlate of crime". Not all homeless are committing crimes, but being homeless lends to a higher likelihood of committing certain offences.

Their point being that socioeconomic factors underpin criminal behaviours: mine as well.

Index	2013​	2024​	Increase​	% increase​
Toronto's Crime severity index	47.12​	59.35​	12.23​	25.96%​
Toronto's Violent crime severity index	67.99​	82.66​	14.67​	21.59%​
Toronto's Non-violent crime severity index	39.42​	50.53​	11.11​	28.18%​

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510002601

I'll rephrase my earlier question: Should we be happy with homicide rates that are (were very recently) higher than the early 2000s?

For me, no, because I expect noticeable progress, not stagnation or worsening crime on some fronts. But maybe I'm asking for too much.

The US is often seen as having higher crime than Canada, but that's not true across the board now, e.g. property crime (see previous post).

 

[Northern Light]

I believe you've missed one of my previous long posts lol. I already graphed the homicide rate using the raw numbers you posted against the Stats Canada estimates that went as high as 3.27 million, so as not to inaccurately inflate the homicide rate.

Things will make more sense if one goes back a few pages to see the whole string of posts.

Doubtless. Its a very long run of exchanged views, I only went back so far.

Now, I'm not saying the every measured crime stat in the City of Toronto or Toronto CMA is higher in the last 5 years than the previous 10, 15, 20. However, there are stat-generating crimes that people are likely to notice even if they don't look up said stats.

My opinion, which you are free to disagree with, is that public perception of safety is degraded, so people feel crime is worse. This hinges on 3 things: VCSI is up, auto theft rates are up, homelessness is up.

I agree that perception of crime may be higher, but I think that's more attributable as @NY99 notes (as do you) to issues of disorder than risk of violent crime.

When looking at Toronto vs the national in violent crime, it ranks comparatively low: (less violence)

If we believe the VCSI is a good representation of violent crime, then that is up. Car thefts are still several times higher than a decade ago in both the CMA and City proper (see previous post). Homelessness is up as well. I'm quoting the notably left-wing John Howard Society, when I said "homelessness is a correlate of crime". Not all homeless are committing crimes, but being homeless lends to a higher likelihood of committing certain offences.

Their point being that socioeconomic factors underpin criminal behaviours: mine as well.

View attachment 734253

Index	2013​	2024​	Increase​	% increase​
Toronto's Crime severity index	47.12​	59.35​	12.23​	25.96%​
Toronto's Violent crime severity index	67.99​	82.66​	14.67​	21.59%​
Toronto's Non-violent crime severity index	39.42​	50.53​	11.11​	28.18%​

Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510002601

This is the VCSI for 2004-2025 from Stats. Can for Toronto:

We're tracking better than any of the first 8 years, while higher than the lowest (the first years of the pandemic), and more recent averages.

I'll rephrase my earlier question: Should we be happy with homicide rates that are (were very recently) higher than the early 2000s?
View attachment 734254

The US is often seen as having higher crime than Canada, but that's not true across the board now, specifically for property crime (see previous post).

As I noted, the current homicide rate is below the lowest rate on your graph. (For Toronto) its 1.4 when annualized for the current year) which I believe is the lowest recorded, certainly in the last 50 years.

 

[nfitz]

(For Toronto) its 1.4 when annualized for the current year) which I believe is the lowest recorded, certainly in the last 50 years.

Isn't the discussion above that 1.4 is for 2025. With ony 6 homicides in 2026, 4 months in, that's below 0.7 (I'm sure that will increase as the summer gets going, and the usual late-year surge, and police investigations continue).

 

[urbanclient]

When looking at Toronto vs the national in violent crime, it ranks comparatively low: (less violence)

View attachment 734258




This is the VCSI for 2004-2025 from Stats. Can for Toronto:

View attachment 734259

We're tracking better than any of the first 8 years, while higher than the lowest (the first years of the pandemic), and more recent averages.



As I noted, the current homicide rate is below the lowest rate on your graph. (For Toronto) its 1.4 when annualized for the current year) which I believe is the lowest recorded, certainly in the last 50 years.

I went with 2013 because @nfitz found a StatsCan? chart that showed crime from 196x to 2013, which ignores the upward trend from the last decade.

Yes, I agree that Toronto is one of the safest cities in Canada, heck, even the world for a city of its size. However, 1 to 2 years of decline in homicide does not make people feel safer, as we all know, the likelihood of you or your circle being a victim of homicide was very low to begin with.

The indices for violent and non-violent crime in Toronto have consistently increased since 2013 except for the covid years. I believe a decade is about as long as the average person would remember.

Not everyone is as erudite as certain Urban Toronto members. Certainly not as aware of stats of decades past. Combine that with rose-tinted nostalgia for the past, people old enough to have lived through the '80s and '90s with higher crime will not remember it as such.

It all adds up to the perception that crime has worsened in the last decade, and in some/many ways it has.

 

[nfitz]

I went with 2013 because @nfitz found a StatsCan? chart that showed crime from 196x to 2013, which ignores the upward trend from the last decade.

The chart ignores nothing ... it was made in 2013. I'd prefer to post one with more recent data, but it cuts off the pre-1990s data. I thought it was easy to line up the numbers on on, with the numbers on the other, in one's mind's eye and see that the recent peak was relatively lower. I'd happily look at one that included all the data ... or possibly even make one (I hate Excel graphs ... are some of yours in Grapher by any chance - the style/colours looked familiar?)

The graphs you posted are what's ignoring stuff, as it does literally cut off the older data. Which I admit is tough with changing definitions and morals, unless you go to the one data type that has never changed much. Homicide.

... 1 to 2 years of decline in homicide does not make people feel safer, as we all know, the likelihood of you or your circle being a victim of homicide was very low to begin with.

Is it? Over the years, I've had two aquaintances that were murdered. One for riding transit while gay in Montreal in the 1980s, and one unemployed engineer (classmate) who took some shifts in a gun store in Durham in the early 1990s (perhaps a bad choice in retrospect - but it was a legit non-shady place afaik). Come to think of it, there was a third person who was murdered. When I was a grad student in engineering, another engineering grad student was murdered by an undergrad, a few metres away, and 2 floors down, from my office - the only reason was he was working late at night alone (as we all did at times), and the undergrad randomly came across him - I didn't know him though, so it was only disturbing rather than shocking.

I guess that means the only person I know murdered on transit wasn't because anyone was homeless.

The indices for violent and non-violent crime in Toronto have consistently increased since 2013 except for the covid years. I believe a decade is about as long as the average person would remember.

Yes, you've said this repeatedly - and it's pretty meaningless, given the two factors of significantly increased reporting of assault and rape. And increased car thefts ... I don't think anyone on the TTC is hiding a stolen car under their trench-coat. Go look at murders.

Heck, I've heard of people actually reporting to the police when something is stolen out of your car these days! Which seems bizarre to me ... younger people seem more woke.

An average person only remembers a decade?

It all adds up to the perception that crime has worsened in the last decade, and in some/many ways it has.

If your take from all this is that in many ways crime has worsened in the last decade, then you've completely missed the point of this discussion. Yes, car thefts (which seems completely unrelated to any other category ... and it all appears to be about monetization and profit these days, rather than the joy rides and needing transportation in recent decades). But car theft isn't scaring away people from transit. Heck, it's possible that it may actually increase transit ridership a bit ( ).

Do you believe that car theft hasn't increased the severe crime numbers?

Do you believe that reporting of sexual assault isn't a lot more common than it used to be (even if the actual number of assuaults is lower!)

It would be interesting to see how much historical rates would be changed if they went back and added in all the priests and other pedes buggering boys, that never got reported decades ago. Hmm, I wonder if the crime is reported 15 years late, if it appears in the current crime stats - though that's probably a minor factor.

 

[81-717]

An average person only remembers a decade?

If 2013 is less than a decade ago, sure.

 

[nfitz]

If 2013 is less than a decade ago, sure.

Not fair ... you are asking me what year it is! Now I have to go look it up!

 

[urbanclient]

two factors of significantly increased reporting of assault and rape.

I've already shown some evidence against both aspects of your sexual assault narrative. That rape/sexual assault isn't more likely to be reported to police now than it was in the past. That self-reported sexual assault victimization rates are actually higher in 2019 than in years before? (5 year intervals). Post with stats quoted below:

This is conjecture. Your claim is based on intuition, not evidence. We know that police-reported violent crime has increased. You attributing that to MeToo and a higher reporting rate for sexual assault requires evidence.

You would need to show that the share of all sexual assaults reported to police increased during the same period that the police-reported sexual assault rate increased.

All the stats I found instead show the opposite, even if they don't necessarily prove your theory wrong:

Source/year	Reporting-rate definition / denominator	% reported to police​	Comparability and link
1999 GSS Victimization	GSS victimization sexual-assault incidents: share of self-reported sexual-assault incidents that were reported to police	22%​	Same as 2004/2009/2014/2019 GSS, Justice Canada/StatCan 78% not reported to police https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/85-002-x/85-002-x2000010-eng.pdf
2004 GSS Victimization	GSS victimization sexual-assault incidents: share of self-reported sexual-assault incidents that were reported to police	12%​	Same GSS incident-based concept; 88% not reported https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/jr/jr14/p9.html https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/catalogue/85-002-X201500114198
2009 GSS Victimization	GSS victimization sexual-assault incidents: share of self-reported sexual-assault incidents that were reported to police	12%​	Same GSS incident-based concept; 88% not reported https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2010002/article/11340-eng.pdf
2014 GSS Victimization	GSS victimization sexual-assault incidents: share of self-reported sexual-assault incidents that were reported to police	5%​	Same broad GSS incident-based concept; StatCan explicitly says 2004 and 2014 remain comparable despite an added consent-related question https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/85-002-x/2017001/article/14842-eng.pdf
2019 GSS Victimization	GSS victimization sexual-assault incidents: share of self-reported sexual-assault incidents that came to police attention	6%​	Same broad GSS incident-based concept; comparable to 2014 https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00014-eng.htm

Percentage reported to police:
View attachment 734192


GSS self-reported sexual assault rates went up too:
View attachment 734197

View attachment 734191

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I could say that crime rate and severity index increases are actually higher than reported: both violent and non-violent. This is because more crime goes unreported than ever before.

And that claim would still be more plausible than yours, even if lacking wholly conclusive evidence.

GSS year​	% of victimization incidents reported to police​
1999​	37%​
2004​	34%​
2009​	31%​
2014​	31%​
2019​	29%​

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14198/tbl/tbl01-eng.htm

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2015001/article/14241-eng.htm

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/85-002-x/2021001/article/00014-eng.htm

Again, there isn't enough evidence to prove either narrative wrong or right 100%, but the evidence that I have found so far points to your narrative being wrong.

I also don't know where increased reporting of simple or aggravated assault plays into this, since we weren't talking about assault before. Why would assault be more likely to be reported now than in decades past? I am happy to be corrected with a source.

If your take from all this is that in many ways crime has worsened in the last decade, then you've completely missed the point of this discussion.

I'll repost one of the first images I posted in this recent discussion for context.

Crime Severity Indices are what I am going off of mostly for saying crime in some/many ways has increased. The fact that those indices have increased in the last decade is not up for debate. I am well aware of the fact general CSI was lower in the past. I'll even add: auto theft used to be worse in the 20th century too.

However, the Violent Crime Severity Index in the last few years is similar to the late 90s, early 2000s; it declined before increasing again.

You handwaving higher reported sexual assaults/assaults to dismiss reports of higher violent crime without any corroborating evidence is not convincing. Yes I know what MeToo is/was. (Please see my previous post showing many crimes being less likely to be reported from the Stats Canada General Social Surveys, not just sexual assaults).

The GSS' go against your narrative, but you're entirely free to find sources that confirm your narrative.

And in case you thought auto theft is violent crime, it's actually classed under non-violent, so that auto thefts wouldn't increase the violent crime index:

Index	2013	2024	Increase	% increase
Canada's Crime Severity Index	68.92	77.89	+8.97	+13.0%
Canada's Violent Crime Severity Index	74.02	99.87	+25.85	+34.9%
Canada's Non-violent Crime Severity Index	66.92	69.76	+2.84	+4.2%

Toronto's Crime Severity Index	47.12	59.35	12.23	25.96%
Toronto's Violent Crime Severity Index	67.99	82.66	14.67	21.59%
Toronto's Non-violent Crime Severity Index	39.42	50.53	11.11	28.18%

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We don't actually disagree on much. Again, you and some others may think that higher crime severity indices from 20+ years ago showing that the last 10 years is a local peak, and not an all-time peak is more important. I think it's ok for y'all to have that opinion, even if I disagree.

Does that mean I think police should be militarized or way more people need to be locked up like the US? No.

I am saying that some, even many people are not conscious of crime being worse in the 90s (and the decades prior to the 90s). Nostalgia for the good ol' days is also a contributing factor. Therefore, in my opinion, many people perceive crime to be worse now than 10 years ago, and you yourself agree, that it is worse, at least on some fronts.

If crime had held steady, no increase or decrease from the early 2000s to now, people wouldn't notice much. It's the fact that crime declined, then steadily increased for 10+ years that goes noticed.

On semantics, whether we can say "crime is worse now" (compared to the past) or "Toronto is less safe now" is highly subjective. If I exaggerate yours and @Northern Light 's logic about crime stats, since crime was generally considered to be significantly worse in the early 20th century than now, it is virtually impossible to say crime is worse now, since you'll always be able to look back in time and find a time when crime was worse for every place on the planet. 2026 will almost always be safer than 19xx or 18xx.

So I'm really not into this 'Toronto is less safe now' stuff, I don't see any hard evidence to support it, and plenty than refutes it.