Several crime stats hit 15, 20, 30 year highs a few years ago, a recent slight decline (if any) misses the bigger picture.
I think only going back 30 years ago misses the big picture.
It's hard to compare over longer periods, because of changes in reporting and categorizing. But the one thing that has always been well reported is murder. And it's been well documented that this peaked in the mid 1970s. It was much lower by 1998 - which is your starting point.
I'm not sure whey attempted homicide peaked later ... perhaps from under reporting in the 1970s?
Yes, compared to the '80s and '90s. Resounding no, compared to a decade ago.
Tough to tell without digging deep into the data. For example, sexual assult
reporting has increased dramatically - so stats show more violent crime. And yeah, auto thefts. Keep in mind that crime severity is based on sentencing, and theft over $5,000 is up to 10 years in prison. So how much has car theft increased the (non-violent) crime index?
There certainly does appear to be a post-covid rise - but I don't think it's as big a deal when you look over longer time periods. The 2024 homicide rate for Canada was 1.91 - only slightly higher than a decade ago. 2025 numbers should come out in July ... but the preliminary reports I've seen suggest it's way down ... 10 to 20%!. See how 1.6 on that graph compares on the long turn. I doubt it could be higher than 1.75.
Toronto of course is lower than the Canadian average. I'm seeing numbers ranging from 37 to 42 (I don't think the official ones are out yet). If the population is 3 million (it was 3.03 million in July 2022, and probably risen since then), that's a murder rate of only 1.4. Compare to the 22 murders in Winnipeg on a population of about 850,000 - a murder rate of 2.6 ... it peaked at 6.2 in 2022!).
The good news is that crime fell again in 2025 in Toronto, in most categories - especially in Auto Theft.
If this lawyer's article is correct, it's way down in Toronto ... except for some reason theft over $5,000 ... presumably they count that different than auto theft.
Toronto crime statistics 2025 show dramatic drops in homicides and violent crime.
www.kruselaw.ca
edit at 9:45 pm, - TPS is now reporting there were 45 homicides in 2025 - so that would make the 2025 rate about 1.5 not 1.4. However I used a population of 3,000,000 off the top of my head, and Ontario is reporting about
3,300,000 in 2024 - which would make it 1.36).