[Coprolite]

Been mulling things overnight here. I suppose there are/were a couple of "go faster" buttons.

1) is to abandon the self-funding formula and absolutely fire-hose money at it. Like the Blatchford Authority, a private developer is going to be under a lot of pressure to keep the project in the green. This is why home building everywhere slowed down when the pandemic lumber price spike hit.

2) SFH's are not actually cheaper to build per unit unless some aspect is compromised. They also aren't actually faster to build per unit unless some aspect is compromised. So, compromising build quality (especially insulation standards, since it's more expensive per unit of floor area to insulate a SFH than a townhouse) would be a go faster option highly appealing to a private developer.

3) You build the city's next cancer hotspot. Regulations about this will still apply to a private developer, but they will perhaps be a little more inclined to cut a corner or two. Given that I live here, and I'm in the process of dealing with the final arrangements for my mother who had it three times, I'm kind of glad this wasn't the option taken.

We bought here because this house was not actually available anywhere else in the core, or even anywhere else in the city. The only decent townhouse we found on the market in the core was one of the bubble houses in Wîhkwêntôwin on 102 Ave and that thing went fast. The only options were out in practically St. Albert or practically Leduc, and none of them were anywhere near as well insulated.

A significant portion of the "will never buy a townhouse" crowd wouldn't actually buy here even if SFH's were a thing, since this is the inner city. There's a lot of overlap out there between "I would never buy a townhouse" and "I don't want to live near an apartment building or density of any sort" and "I don't want to live near an LRT and would never take transit because it's for poors" and "I don't want to see poor people existing" and "I need parking for my vast fleet of numpty trucks" and "THEY NEVER SHOULD HAVE CLOSED THE AIRPORT I DEMAND YOU REOPEN IT I WANT TO FLY TO THE EDGE OF CALGARY FOR $25 AND SMOKE ON THE PLANE INSERT INCOHERENT CONSPIRACY THEORY ABOUT MAYOR MANDEL HERE". For those who aren't like this, the inner city is full of SFH's, both vintage and new build infill, and they seem to stay on the market for a while.

 

[Offworld]

View attachment 652968

They could repurpose those signs for the rest of Blatchford to read "I'M SOD".

 

[Coprolite]

They could repurpose those signs for the rest of Blatchford to read "I'M SOD".

Between the infrastructure work going on in the east, west and north, we're getting a bit low on that.

 

[Coprolite]

Went for a little stroll on this grey drizzly morning. Since the predominant biome here is now bare earth, I was a little limited as to where I could walk without my other half hosing me off in the front yard when I got home. But the general themes are construction, excavation, demolition and grading. The pond is now this weird little island of green amid a bunch of earth moving and concrete removal. The PWA hangars have been stripped down to roofs and frames. The Hangar 11 Debris removal is nearing completion. Tarmac demolition also seems to be a priority this year, with it being particularly noticeable along old Runway 34/16, now Bravo Boulevard. Walking up the LRT line to Blatchford Gate takes you to a giant stockpile of concrete debris, with trucks being actively loaded to remove it.

 

[EtoV]

View attachment 652165

View attachment 652166

What site did you find these satellite images on?

 

[thommyjo]

Been mulling things overnight here. I suppose there are/were a couple of "go faster" buttons.

1) is to abandon the self-funding formula and absolutely fire-hose money at it. Like the Blatchford Authority, a private developer is going to be under a lot of pressure to keep the project in the green. This is why home building everywhere slowed down when the pandemic lumber price spike hit.

2) SFH's are not actually cheaper to build per unit unless some aspect is compromised. They also aren't actually faster to build per unit unless some aspect is compromised. So, compromising build quality (especially insulation standards, since it's more expensive per unit of floor area to insulate a SFH than a townhouse) would be a go faster option highly appealing to a private developer.

3) You build the city's next cancer hotspot. Regulations about this will still apply to a private developer, but they will perhaps be a little more inclined to cut a corner or two. Given that I live here, and I'm in the process of dealing with the final arrangements for my mother who had it three times, I'm kind of glad this wasn't the option taken.

We bought here because this house was not actually available anywhere else in the core, or even anywhere else in the city. The only decent townhouse we found on the market in the core was one of the bubble houses in Wîhkwêntôwin on 102 Ave and that thing went fast. The only options were out in practically St. Albert or practically Leduc, and none of them were anywhere near as well insulated.

A significant portion of the "will never buy a townhouse" crowd wouldn't actually buy here even if SFH's were a thing, since this is the inner city. There's a lot of overlap out there between "I would never buy a townhouse" and "I don't want to live near an apartment building or density of any sort" and "I don't want to live near an LRT and would never take transit because it's for poors" and "I don't want to see poor people existing" and "I need parking for my vast fleet of numpty trucks" and "THEY NEVER SHOULD HAVE CLOSED THE AIRPORT I DEMAND YOU REOPEN IT I WANT TO FLY TO THE EDGE OF CALGARY FOR $25 AND SMOKE ON THE PLANE INSERT INCOHERENT CONSPIRACY THEORY ABOUT MAYOR MANDEL HERE". For those who aren't like this, the inner city is full of SFH's, both vintage and new build infill, and they seem to stay on the market for a while.

View attachment 652967View attachment 652968

You may certainly be right and I might be wrong. There’s lots I don’t understand about development. But it’s hard to imagine there are 0 ways to speed up this project. And I’m not suggesting a wholesale redesign or compromise on the plan.

It’s just a massive chunk of land, there’s certainly been a struggle to develop the “multi family” (by that I mean 4+ story building parcels) sites…already 2 are being used for affordable housing, indicating a lack of demand im guessing. And some are still for sale, with dozens more in the Market and NW areas planned. I wonder if there’s not demand in the next 15 years for that many units?

There’s also been 0 new retail, which of course takes time and there’s a ton of competition nearby. But it makes me nervous for that Market area if we can’t even get a 6 story with ground floor retail built within 7 years.

The snowball might be building, the next 2 years might really ramp things up. But so far it’s felt more linear than exponential in growth. Which gives us a very, very slow trajectory for full site buildout.

And yes, the Venn diagram of some suburbanites who are anti townhomes and anti central living exists. But there’s also many who are buying into nearby neighborhoods like glenora, westmount, inglewood, prince Charles, etc who prefer a SFH, or who might be attracted to a 600-700k SFH in blatchford vs 800k for the same in glenora.

I really want blatchford to succeed. It just has to pick up the pace soon. If 4 buildings of 4+ stories are built in the next 3 years I’ll shut up forever haha.

 

[CplKlinger]

The city published a new progress map this month.

Here's the one from January 2025, for comparison.

Here's an updated map from December, for comparison. They're now planning the green space behind amiskwaciy academy and a little bit more of Blatchford Market, the NAIT lands are done, and it looks like they also started constructing the second pond.
View attachment 625959

 

[Coprolite]

You may certainly be right and I might be wrong. There’s lots I don’t understand about development. But it’s hard to imagine there are 0 ways to speed up this project. And I’m not suggesting a wholesale redesign or compromise on the plan.

If district energy hadn't been implemented, that would've sped things up. If COVID had never happened, that would've sped stuff up. If the airport had never been built and the land had somehow managed to remain green field, that would've sped things up. None of these things happened, and two of them can't be changed at this point. One of them could be changed but would burn everyone who has bought in so far along with tens of millions of dollars of investment.

It’s just a massive chunk of land, there’s certainly been a struggle to develop the “multi family” (by that I mean 4+ story building parcels) sites…already 2 are being used for affordable housing, indicating a lack of demand im guessing. And some are still for sale, with dozens more in the Market and NW areas planned. I wonder if there’s not demand in the next 15 years for that many units?

I use multi-family to mean multi-family. So does the city. An example is NX's project, where the project is a single structure with individual units housing many families within individual subunits and owned by a condo corp.

There have only been two projects to date which haven't sold well, of any sort. One is CarbonBusters, who have struggled with financing and have really weird floorplans. The other is laggard is Streetside, who tried to copy and paste more typically suburban designs, decided to lead with a condo townhome concept that didn't exactly stack up well against what was already here. But they also have basically no marketing presence here compared to their competitors.

Inclusion of affordable housing options was actually an early criterion of the project. Like it predates the Blatchford Plan actually being approved. It was a thing before the pneumatic tube trash system, tram line, and giant lake were cut from the design.

There’s also been 0 new retail, which of course takes time and there’s a ton of competition nearby. But it makes me nervous for that Market area if we can’t even get a 6 story with ground floor retail built within 7 years.

There hasn't been an opportunity to really start that yet. New developments tend not to actually start with commercial/retail. It took Griesbach years to get any retail or anything more multi-family than a recycled PMQ.

The snowball might be building, the next 2 years might really ramp things up. But so far it’s felt more linear than exponential in growth. Which gives us a very, very slow trajectory for full site buildout.

Linear progression would be if last year had added a one block row of freehold townhouses instead of the constructed area doubling along with the population and three multi-family parcels developed where previously there was one under construction in late 2023.

And yes, the Venn diagram of some suburbanites who are anti townhomes and anti central living exists. But there’s also many who are buying into nearby neighborhoods like glenora, westmount, inglewood, prince Charles, etc who prefer a SFH, or who might be attracted to a 600-700k SFH in blatchford vs 800k for the same in glenora.

Or, they can buy in Westmount, Inglewood, Prince Charles, etc because an abundance of SFH options already exist in the core of Edmonton. Thanks to the opening of the Valley Line, it's much less rare to see SFH within easy walking distance of an LRT stop anymore.

More realistic pricing for a hypothetical SFH in Blatchford, presuming insulation, architectural and energy standards aren't just thrown out the window and barring a collapse in demand for housing within this neighbourhood would be more like the $750K-850K range that end unit townhouses have been commanding here as of late. Note that home prices in the neighbourhood has crept upwards because after every builder got through their prototype phases and got a grasp of the demand, they raised prices. Landmark used to start in the $500Ks, but seen to have bumped up to the $670K+ for 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1532 square feet. An Encore Brooklyn middle unit used to be available from the $600K's back when we were looking, and now starts at a bit over $700K.

I really want blatchford to succeed. It just has to pick up the pace soon. If 4 buildings of 4+ stories are built in the next 3 years I’ll shut up forever haha.

I'm not going to be worried if that benchmark isn't precisely hit, because there tends to be a lengthy process behind even 4+ story buildings. But I'm expecting to see something soon. And given the proximity to NAIT and the LRT line and the growing resident population, something bigger will happen eventually... barring some economic catastrophe like Alberta separation.

 

[JNO1]

Fire Hall. From today.

 

[MattPT]

The push for single family speaks perfectly to the Albertan/Canadian/North American obsession with progress for the sake of progress. Had this entire neighbourhood been done as SFH it would probably be complete already… but then what? We would have had another nondescript neighbourhood like EVERY other neighbourhood. Sure we can pat ourselves on the back for expediting the completion, but have absolutely nothing to show for it. Building something of value takes time. Everyone bitches and complains that everything going up in Edmonton is crap, and then when we try to build something of value, say that we should have just put up the crap instead because it’s faster. Wtf

 

[Whatup]

The push for single family speaks perfectly to the Albertan/Canadian/North American obsession with progress for the sake of progress. Had this entire neighbourhood been done as SFH it would probably be complete already… but then what? We would have had another nondescript neighbourhood like EVERY other neighbourhood. Sure we can pat ourselves on the back for expediting the completion, but have absolutely nothing to show for it. Building something of value takes time. Everyone bitches and complains. That everything going up in Edmonton is crap, and then when we try to build something of value, say that we should have just put up the crap instead because it’s faster. Wtf

So suburban neighbourhoods full of young families, people who saved their money until they could afford a down payment on a SFH where they can raise their families and live productive lives don't have value? Are all the suburban neighbourhoods that are full of people who have character, identities, values, religous beliefs, cultural beliefs - these are all "nondescript neighbourhoods like every other neighbourhood"? You don't give average folks much credit - unless they are "progressives" who want to live in apparently market challenged places of "value" like Blatchford.

 

[whattheheck]

"Had this entire neighbourhood been done as SFH"

has anyone called for that? please stop the hyperbole/ theatrics.

 

[Platinum107]

So suburban neighbourhoods full of young families, people who saved their money until they could afford a down payment on a SFH where they can raise their families and live productive lives don't have value? Are all the suburban neighbourhoods that are full of people who have character, identities, values, religous beliefs, cultural beliefs - these are all "nondescript neighbourhoods like every other neighbourhood"? You don't give average folks much credit - unless they are "progressives" who want to live in apparently market challenged places of "value" like Blatchford.

Alright then, sure. The people who live in a neighbourhood have an impact on it's culture and diverse backgrounds and experiences are important, I agree.

So tell me, why should most people be pushed by the development industry and market to live in boring and soulless suburban neighbourhoods which, at their core, don't serve the human-ness of people? My answer is yes, these neighbourhoods are all nondescript and alike in their mundanity, and that makes it all the more tragic that they're the standard. Blatchford could take 100 years to build out and it will still be significantly better in it's character and human scale than any NSP in Stillwater or Ellerslie or Horse Hill.

The supply chains and practices of the greenfield development industry need to be altered so suburbia can be more like Blatchford, not the other way around. That's how you make a city which better serves the diverse and interesting people which live in it.

 

[thommyjo]

The push for single family speaks perfectly to the Albertan/Canadian/North American obsession with progress for the sake of progress. Had this entire neighbourhood been done as SFH it would probably be complete already… but then what? We would have had another nondescript neighbourhood like EVERY other neighbourhood. Sure we can pat ourselves on the back for expediting the completion, but have absolutely nothing to show for it. Building something of value takes time. Everyone bitches and complains. That everything going up in Edmonton is crap, and then when we try to build something of value, say that we should have just put up the crap instead because it’s faster. Wtf

A bit simplistic to suggest all SFHs or new suburbs are “crap” and that everything in blatchford is somehow a magical step above. Much of what’s been build, aside from a few designs, are pretty typical home styles seen throughout Edmonton.

“But then what?” You ask? Well…

- 20,000 new residents:
1) within useable distance of an LRT and surrounded by bike lanes
2) within minutes of downtown and 124th, increasing the success potential of local businesses and main streets
3) thousands of new students for nearby schools that are under capacity, while reducing strain on new suburbs that have 20+ portables. And many of those students would be able to walk/bike more than in our communities.
4) reduced sprawl, congestion, and wear on roads
5) increased vibrancy in core areas, which can help to reduce crime as well

There is definitely a cost and opportunity cost to blatchford, exhibition, and many of our other projects moving slowly while we rapidly build and sprawl outwards.

Excuses like covid sure didn’t hurt sales of new SFHs, duplexes, townhomes, condos in new suburbs.

Imo we need to see the supply of new housing units in central areas as both in competition with new suburbs and vital to our city’s success. 50% of our population will soon live outside the henday…. How will that bode for our downtown, transit use, biking, emissions, traffic, main streets, festivals, etc?

 

[Coprolite]

The push for single family speaks perfectly to the Albertan/Canadian/North American obsession with progress for the sake of progress. Had this entire neighbourhood been done as SFH it would probably be complete already… but then what? We would have had another nondescript neighbourhood like EVERY other neighbourhood. Sure we can pat ourselves on the back for expediting the completion, but have absolutely nothing to show for it. Building something of value takes time. Everyone bitches and complains. That everything going up in Edmonton is crap, and then when we try to build something of value, say that we should have just put up the crap instead because it’s faster. Wtf

Oh, it would NOT be done by now, given the extent of demolition and landscape remediation that had to be done for this project, and the additional infrastructure installation required for the district heating plant. It would be built to approximately the same extent (unless District heating were also removed), but with a different mix of houses (and either less of them, or smaller, skinnier ones on what are already rather narrow lot lines).

Demolition is still very much ongoing and nothing about that process would go faster with a different housing type, let alone remediation, subsurface infrastructure, rough grade or paving. The folks who come in here and drool out "guys, if we made SFH's it would sell homes faster" even though there's been no actual problem with selling freehold townhomes just aren't actually remotely engaging with reality.