[MisterF]

Toronto - Windsor should have been part of this in the first place.

Sure if you want the scope to creep even more and reduce the likelihood that anything gets built at all.

How the transcontinental railway was built is completely irrelevant to a modern high speed rail system. In the 19th century we were a society in the process of essentially conquering new land, committing genocide, and having zero regard for impacts on people living in the area or worker safety. Looking back on that era to learn lessons is pointless at best. The reality is that modern high speed rail lines get built in phases. Nobody outside China is building 1200 km of HSR in one shot.

 

[urbancog]

All of that is great, but fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which is who will cough up the $90+ billion necessary to make ALTO become reality…

The RfP envisaged most of the capital coming from private sources (pension funds, Brookfield, etc.), with the Federal Government also contributing to the extent needed to get others to commit. Return on investment for the private capital would be from profits over a several decade period.

 

[micheal_can]

All of that is great, but fails to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which is who will cough up the $90+ billion necessary to make ALTO become reality…

It is a PPP, right? If so,then the taxpayers can fund that additional amount.

Sure if you want the scope to creep even more and reduce the likelihood that anything gets built at all.

Extending it east to Halifax or West to Winnipeg would be scope creep that would kill the project. To Windsor? With service to Pearson,Kitchener,London and Windsor, you are hitting the major city centres not within the GTA.

How the transcontinental railway was built is completely irrelevant to a modern high speed rail system. In the 19th century we were a society in the process of essentially conquering new land, committing genocide, and having zero regard for impacts on people living in the area or worker safety. Looking back on that era to learn lessons is pointless at best. The reality is that modern high speed rail lines get built in phases. Nobody outside China is building 1200 km of HSR in one shot.

If the track is laid at the same time, it will be a travesty. However, if everything is planned at once, it will be a good plan. There is more work between Toronto and Smiths Falls than anywhere else. Due to that, it would make sense than this is opened in 3+ phases, with all of the work actually starting at once.

 

[Urban Sky]

The RfP envisaged most of the capital coming from private sources (pension funds, Brookfield, etc.), with the Federal Government also contributing to the extent needed to get others to commit. Return on investment for the private capital would be from profits over a several decade period.

Again, the question is: What combination of investors can commit $90+ billion into a single project and what scale of public subsidies and guarantees would they require to justify the lump risk to the people who trusted them their funds?

 

[Northern Light]

I'm loathed to get roped into this as I see poor @Urban Sky feeling like he's staring in a re-make of Groundhog Day.

****

May I suggest, however, that re-debating already taken decisions, for the most part, makes little sense. Wise or not, intended earnestly or not....... the default discussion here ought to be about what's on the table, officially, except where we are given clear evidence of just cause to reconsider.

I appreciate the Prime Minister making passing mention of taking this project further west; but we have yet to hear anything substantive about what that musing means from his point of view. Inferring, absent more information runs the risk of getting back into fantasy land (which this entire idea remains at some risk of, the merits notwithstanding).

Is there a case to be made for taking this project west of Toronto, at some future point, assuming the balance has been built? Sure. Does going all the way to Windsor increase or even maintain the currently likelihood of the project breaking ground in the next 5 years, and delivering something in the way of service inside 15 years...... surely not.

One could imagine a small tweak that pushed service to Pearson......as having sufficient benefit to cost.....adding either K-W or Niagara is likely a step too far because of meaningful investments required, relative to outcome, but at least these aren't beyond comprehension and likely have a better ROI than Montreal-QC service. Still, the existing mountain is high enough and steep enough a climb without adding more.

****

How about we rest this discussion til we see what the PM has in mind, in writing, hopefully with some added details, and timelines. Then a more fruitful and less speculative discussion may be possible.

 

[MisterF]

Extending it east to Halifax or West to Winnipeg would be scope creep that would kill the project. To Windsor? With service to Pearson,Kitchener,London and Windsor, you are hitting the major city centres not within the GTA.

It took a decade from Via Rail announcing the HFR concept to where we are today. Ten years just to get from concept to real planning and design, and there was no guarantee that it would even get that far. Adding more would have made it take even longer and could have derailed it completely. Via Rail started small for a reason. That's not to say that we shouldn't plan for eventual high speed trains going to SW Ontario. But we shouldn't insist that it should be at the same time as Toronto-Quebec.

 

[micheal_can]

It took a decade from Via Rail announcing the HFR concept to where we are today. Ten years just to get from concept to real planning and design, and there was no guarantee that it would even get that far. Adding more would have made it take even longer and could have derailed it completely. Via Rail started small for a reason. That's not to say that we shouldn't plan for eventual high speed trains going to SW Ontario. But we shouldn't insist that it should be at the same time as Toronto-Quebec.

It was not Via, but Trudeau who made that announcement. So, now this government is left with it.

I thought it was Ford who said it.

 

[TransportEnthusiast]

Toronto - Windsor should have been part of this in the first place. We built an entire transcontinental railway as one project, why should we not build the entire Corridor HSR as one project, when it is something that will be transformative to the area and solve some key transportation issues. Until the construction plan comes out,we do not know whether the scope creep has happened. However, if that entire section can be done by ~2040 then let it creep.

Moreover, Toronto-London-Windsor sees more passenger traffic than Montreal-Quebec City.

 

[micheal_can]

Moreover, Toronto-London-Windsor sees more passenger traffic than Montreal-Quebec City.

The difference is that the route they are taking to QC brings in new ridership.

 

[TransportEnthusiast]

Another reason to build Toronto-London-Windsor ahead of Montreal-Quebec City if we can only choose 1 is the former has the opportunity to create more new riders. People that work out of an office 1-3 days/week are very likely to live in London and travel to Toronto for work. This helps with the affordability crisis.

 

[Urban Sky]

Another reason to build Toronto-London-Windsor ahead of Montreal-Quebec City if we can only choose 1 is the former has the opportunity to create more new riders. People that work out of an office 1-3 days/week are very likely to live in London and travel to Toronto for work. This helps with the affordability crisis.

Montreal-Ottawa would be Stage 1 and Ottawa-Toronto Stage 2. I wouldn’t waste any thought on what comes as Stages 3 or 4 at this point…

 

[micheal_can]

Another reason to build Toronto-London-Windsor ahead of Montreal-Quebec City if we can only choose 1 is the former has the opportunity to create more new riders. People that work out of an office 1-3 days/week are very likely to live in London and travel to Toronto for work. This helps with the affordability crisis.

It would not. It would cause a much higher demand on housing in London, further raising the prices.

 

[guavadelic]

I appreciate the Prime Minister making passing mention of taking this project further west; but we have yet to hear anything substantive about what that musing means from his point of view. Inferring, absent more information runs the risk of getting back into fantasy land (which this entire idea remains at some risk of, the merits notwithstanding).

Agreed. I'd love for a southwestern leg to be included but Martin Imbleau, ALTO/VIA HFR CEO, repeatedly said that the Windsor leg wasn't part of the scope of this project. He was even asked about this during the House of Commons Standing Committee on HFR and said as much.

This all could just be that it was erroneously included by someone in the Liberal election platform and Carney is continuing to repeat it. Would be sloppy but wouldn't surprise me nowadays.

 

[north-of-anything]

I think an extension of ALTO to Kitchener and then Windsor needs to happen. The return on investment from connecting those communities to the T-O-M triangle is too great.

But that's what it should be, an extension of an earlier project. Design it up to Union Station in Toronto, issue the building contracts, and then when shovels are in the ground we can start planning the western leg to Windsor. A longer route will take more time to properly plan and design, and time is money.

 

[micheal_can]

I think an extension of ALTO to Kitchener and then Windsor needs to happen. The return on investment from connecting those communities to the T-O-M triangle is too great.

But that's what it should be, an extension of an earlier project. Design it up to Union Station in Toronto, issue the building contracts, and then when shovels are in the ground we can start planning the western leg to Windsor. A longer route will take more time to properly plan and design, and time is money.

The issue is we have had nothing but cuts and setbacks with any transportation that demand for something better is almost obvious. The Corridor can be split into 4 sections W-T,T-O, O-M ,M-QC. Each of these should have HSR now. Each would help improve overall transportation in the area. The challenge with ALTO, it is trying to tackle a lot without actually laying out how to do it. It should have been announced as a phased approach with the understanding that the sections that are going to be easier to upgrade will be upgraded and opened first, but shovels in the ground will happen at the same time in the whole corridor.