afransen
Senior Member
I am cautiously optimistic that Carney realizes that he is very unlikely to win another election after this one, and makes a lot of difficult but necessary decisions early in his mandate (assuming it is a majority).
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- Thread starter Richard White
- Start date
Northern Light
Superstar
BC’s its own animal.
That map is problematic for more than Manitoba.
When you're thinking about areas when there is a clear, and consistent political lean:
From West to East:
Vancouver Island divides based on urban/gentrified which is Liberal/Green/NDP. And resource extraction/rural which leans Conservative/NDP
Lower Mainland BC is 3-way between the big players, NDP/Libs in Vancouver proper, and all three in suburban Vancouver.
Northern/Interior BC with non-First Nations majority leans Conservative, votes/thinks a lot like Alberta.
First Nations Majority leans NDP.
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Alberta has a right-ward tilt to be sure, but urban Edmonton and core Calgary are generally in play. Lethbridge also can tilt swing/left.
Rural Alberta is hard right.
Saskatchewan is mostly what it is, with the NDP/Libs marginally competitive in Regina/Saskatoon.
Manitoba divides roughly into three, Winnipeg (Liberal-NDP with Cons competitive outsides the core). The rural south (from just north of Winnipeg) very much leans right-ward. The First Nations plurality north is very leaf leaning.
Ontario is so many discrete areas, The North, The Near North, Central Ontario, The Urban East (Ottawa, Kingston), Rural East, The Urban South West (Windsor, London, K-W, Niagara proper), the rural south-west, then the 416/905.
Quebec divides up roughly as Gatineau, Urban Montreal, Suburban Montreal, Quebec City area, rural Francophone Quebec, First Nations Quebec.
Newfoundland is close to one block.
PEI is close to one block
Nova Scotia splits as Halifax, Sydney, Other.
New Brunswick splits Francophone/Anglo Rural/Anglo Urban.
The Territories can swing.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Any map suggesting cultural/societal boundaries is going to be a pedant's nightmare or delight.
evandyk
Senior Member
There is probably more predictive value in knowing if a riding is urban, suburban or rural than knowing which province it's in.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
nfitz
Superstar
WTAF?
picard102
Senior Member
America is incredibly racist.
nfitz
Superstar
It certainly is ... but the most electable Democrat presidential candidate in a generation has been black.
To desire a white guy is unacceptably racist.
That's the same as desiring a white guy leading the NDP because they might get more labour votes because of issues of racism.
picard102
Senior Member
Trump is a direct response to Obama though, it energized white supremacy in the US in a way that no white candidate ever could have.
It gave racists like Trump a platform with his birther nonsense and now he's president, he's brought with him people set on destroying the country with roots in South Africa under white rule.
I do not think we'll ever see a POC as president in my lifetime again.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
To beat Trump in 2024? We may hate the message, but that's what the Dems needed. Trump fully motivated the white trash and racist underbelly of America, steamrolling over Kamala's wave of DEI, progressives and inclusivists. If you wanted to beat Trump in Nov 2024 the Dems needed to bring their own counter Trump. Put Mayor Pete back into the closet and he would have smoked Trump. OTOH, I'm not even sure 2008's Obama could defeat 2024's Trump. It's a shitty system and society in the USA, but you can go low, play dirty and win or go high and lose.
And we can't sit happy in Canada either. Had the LPC put forth a POC, like Anand or Virani I'd say the Libs would have a lot more trouble, especially in Quebec and the more racist corners of rural Canada. Heck, had they put forth a highly qualified white woman like Freeland the LPCs would get smoked on Monday.
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nfitz
Superstar
There's no way in the world Singh is getting more than 15 seats - and that would be the death of him. And I bet lower than 15; single digits is a distinct possibility.
And there's no way that PP is going to eke out a victory - which will be the death of him. Scheer made significant gains from 2015 in his only election. I was surprised they dumped him so quick. And in the following election O'Toole lost about the same % of vote as Trudeau did - but gone.
The Conservatives are brittle - the only way Poilievre may survive is if the NDP+Liberal seats are less than 172. Which currently seems unlikely, even though the Conservatives have a bit of momentum heading into the final polling day.
Obama could have beaten Trump (other than the 3rd term issue).
I simply can't accept opinions that you can only run a white male to beat a racist - to me this is racism.
Freeland couldn't have won this, because she was the deputy PM for much of the last decade. And I don't think she has the kind of character that can enthuse and excite people to come out to vote. I doubt any white males in the current caucus could have either.
Though who knows ... Liberals always seem to gain support during an election - they came from 3rd in 2015 to win a majority. Once everything starts coming out, the Conservatives are just too woke about social issues for many people's tastes.
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adma
Superstar
(1) Re "death of him": even if he *did* "pull a Stiles" and get over 15 seats, who says that this *wasn't* Singh's last campaign, anyway? Not about being pushed out by an angry and embarrassed party; but more simply about going on to other things and maybe putting his young family et al first--a "graceful" sort of "graceless end", and not in a way that fed into personal ego and psychodrama, either. Like he was always quietly planning to wind things down--maybe not entirely unlike how Andrea Horwath left on her own accord after a disappointing-yet-not-disappointing '22
And as for the Libs always seeming to gain support during an election: of course, Iggy in '11--and, provincially, Wynne in '18--are significant exceptions, and in both cases on behalf of a NDP wave. But also '06, because of how sponsorship scandal revelations happened mid-election...
afransen
Senior Member
My employer conceives of the country as BC-MB+NW Ontario as 'west', and everything else as 'east'. The divide being the Canadian Shield in Ontario. East is Ontario, Quebec, Atlantic.
evandyk
Senior Member
To me, Ontario ends and the West starts somewhere between Thunder Bay and Dryden.
nfitz
Superstar
Good point, often would have been a better description. Though I'm only thinking federally - there's other provincial examples, such as Peterson in 1990.
Yes, it could well have been the end of Singh anyhow, even if he could have held 25 seats. Though if it's a minority with Singh holding the balance, I'd expect a desire to continue. Singh has hardly been a failure with the pressure he's applied to the Liberals to get the Pharmacare and Dental Care going - which I suspect one day will be considered sacrosanct. Even know the Conservatives are reluctant to trash them, even if the expansion of them is pretty much dead.