[evandyk]

I thought Ontario and Canada had recently signed a deal for an extension?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-announces-20-billion-child-care-deal-provinces-1.7476199

 

[Admiral Beez]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

 

[Richard White]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

Short of Trump invading Canada (and even then) there is no way the west will vote Liberal.

 

[adma]

What of the west? What are the chances of the Liberals keeping and growing beyond their two seats in Alberta (Edmonton Centre, and Calgary Skyview)? A few more wins in Alberta, along with a PM from Edmonton, may help defuse some of that Alberta isolation. What about Saskatchewan, where the Conservatives own every riding? In Manitoba the Liberals own five of the 17 seats - will they get some of the four owned by the NDP?

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

 

[Jonny5]

The Star reporting there is some concern behind the scenes that Poilievre is at risk of losing his riding to the Liberals.
Carleton is a sort of mixed exurban and rural area but is populated by a lot of federal government workers that commute to Ottawa, and many of them fear there will be mass job cuts under a Conservative government.

Conservatives pour resources into Pierre Poilievre’s riding amid fears of a tight race

The federal Conservatives are funnelling resources into Pierre Poilievre’s local campaign, shoring up volunteer support in the leader’s Ottawa-area riding over concerns that winning his seat is not guaranteed, the

www.thestar.com

 

[Richard White]

The Star reporting there is some concern behind the scenes that Poilievre is at risk of losing his riding to the Liberals.
Carleton is a sort of mixed exurban and rural area but is populated by a lot of federal government workers that commute to Ottawa, and many fear there will be mass job cuts under a Conservative government.

Conservatives pour resources into Pierre Poilievre’s riding amid fears of a tight race

The federal Conservatives are funnelling resources into Pierre Poilievre’s local campaign, shoring up volunteer support in the leader’s Ottawa-area riding over concerns that winning his seat is not guaranteed, the

www.thestar.com

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

Thoughts on Alberta?

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

...I'll save that schadenfreude until after the election.

 

[christiesplits]

I heard that as well.

If he loses his seat and the conservatives can't pull off a win he is toast.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

There are a lot of public sector workers in Pierre's riding who are likely concerned about the prospects of a DOGE-style tear down of the civil service.

Sask is practically guaranteed at least one new Lib seat, thanks to the far-north Desnethe et al riding being redrawn into an indigenous-dominant seat.

As for Manitoba, the NDP has only 3. Niki Ashton's Churchill looks a possibility, Elmwood-Transcona's more of an NDP/CPC seat going off the recent byelection win (that is, the Libs *there* are genuinely a "wasted vote"), and Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre is a powerhouse that's likelier to be a "Stiles Democrat" kind of local-machine survivor. All politics is local, IOW (something forgotten when projection sites advance a myth of generic "waves")

Wab Kinew's popularity in Manitoba might help the NDP hold their seats in Manitoba.

Last year, the NDP had high hopes for pickups in Ontario, including some Toronto seats. I suspect they will come close in Parkdale-High Park with Karpoche, but finish short. The NDP should hold their strongholds in Windsor West, London Fanshawe and Hamilton Centre.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Wouldn't townhomes be considered multi-unit homes and thus eligible for the DC reduction?

hard to know without more detail but "multi-unit" typically means multiple units on one lot - i.e. apartments. Stacked Towns may qualify, but we would need to see details.

Regardless the specificity of limiting it to "multi unit" means it will ignore the product class in largest shortage.

 

[evandyk]

Last year, the NDP had high hopes for pickups in Ontario, including some Toronto seats. I suspect they will come close in Parkdale-High Park with Karpoche, but finish short. The NDP should hold their strongholds in Windsor West, London Fanshawe and Hamilton Centre.

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

 

[christiesplits]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

Fair point. I think we could see a scenario similar to the last provincial election, where the NDP remains competitive in traditional NDP ridings, but their popular support craters everywhere else.

I live in Parkdale-High Park which is currently a sea of orange signs. Still, the NDP also won the sign war in the riding in 2021 and lost. While I suspect Karpoche does well in Parkdale (especially among the Tibetan community) and in my hood, the West Bend, I think the Liberal candidate has the advantage in the more affluent BWV, Baby Point and Swansea neighborhoods.

 

[evandyk]

I think the Liberals still have the upper hand in Parkdale-High Park (now Taiaiako'n-Parkdale-High Park, though I don't know how significant any boundary changes are). I don't really see any Liberal incumbent doing worse than they did in 2021 in the current environment.

Edit to add: I checked wikipedia and it says there were "significant" changes in the north of the riding, but it doesn't describe them and I don't have time to investigate.

 

[Jonny5]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

It will be interesting to see how the Green Party does in these urban Toronto ridings too as I get the sense their support base has also collapsed, and even if they only got 4% of the vote in the past election, if only half of that vote moved strategically to another party that 2% could swing these close Toronto ridings.

 

[Towered]

...I'll save that schadenfreude until after the election.

I would relish that...