[ethan.l.cecc]

I think the Liberals still have the upper hand in Parkdale-High Park (now Taiaiako'n-Parkdale-High Park, though I don't know how significant any boundary changes are). I don't really see any Liberal incumbent doing worse than they did in 2021 in the current environment.

Edit to add: I checked wikipedia and it says there were "significant" changes in the north of the riding, but it doesn't describe them and I don't have time to investigate.

From the redistribution website, black lines are the former boundaries, blue the new boundaries. T-P-HP added a small part of Liberty Village and the communities north of rail corridor to the hydro corridor in the Syme neighbourhood

 

[adma]

In actual Toronto seats, the NDP might do a bit better than their overall numbers suggest because NDP supporters in Toronto don't need to vote Liberal to keep the seat out of CPC hands. The seat is going either Liberal or NDP.

In the suburbs and smaller cities, that's where the NDP support seems to have truly collapsed because they need to vote strategically to keep the seats from flipping to the CPC.

I imagine in PP's riding there will be a lot of NDP supporters voting Liberal just to knife PP.

Though the broader thing going against the NDP is that they've been blanked in Toronto since '15, so it'd be *really* offbeat for them to be gaining seats in Toronto now (And there already isn't much NDP vote to "collapse" in suburban seats--in most of the 905 save Oshawa, they were typically single digits and low teens in '21, maybe upper teens if they were lucky. And even in PP's riding, they only got 11% in '21.)

 

[afransen]

Short of Trump invading Canada (and even then) there is no way the west will vote Liberal.

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

 

[Richard White]

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

I don't.

When I say west I was thinking Alberta as well as the praries.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Do you include BC in the west? They are going to win a lot of seats there.

BC’s its own animal.

 

[nfitz]

BC’s its own animal.

I'd say that Manitoba is it's own animal.

338 Canada says of the 14 seats there, 5 are safe or likely for the Liberals, and 5 are safe or likely for the Conservatives. Only 4 are in play - 3 are currently held by the NDP. NDP are in play in 3 of those, Liberals in 3, and Conservatives in 2.

Liberals tend to win the same or more seats in Manitoba when they win majorities.

Saskatchewan is much more Conservative, with 12 of the 14 seats safe or likely for the Conservatives, and the one safe seat for the Liberals in the north. Beyond that only one of the Regina ridings is in play between the Conservatives and Liberals.

Looks like Liberals will get at last 1 seat in each province and territory including somewhere from 3 to 11 seats in Edmonton and Calgary; they currently only have 1 Alberta seat. Alberta is certainly not as monolithic as it once was.

It would be interesting to see the effects if Jagmeet and PP both lose their seats.

I think both are toast, even if they do hold their seats.

Singh is yesterday's news, and even if he hit's his potential maximum of 15 seats, that's about 10 less than in his last two elections; and the current forecast is only 8 seats. They had 44 seats in the election before he took over.

And Pierre has taken the Conservatives from a huge majority at New Years to another loss in just weeks; perhaps a record downfall.

 

[PL1]

I think both are toast, even if they do hold their seats.

Singh is yesterday's news, and even if he hit's his potential maximum of 15 seats, that's about 10 less than in his last two elections; and the current forecast is only 8 seats. They had 44 seats in the election before he took over.

And Pierre has taken the Conservatives from a huge majority at New Years to another loss in just weeks; perhaps a record downfall.

I'm not counting chickens until late Monday night.

The CPC needs to decide if they want to be a big tent party, or one for the more fringe. The ex-Reform element rules the party and its policies reflect that. That's a "never" from me

 

[Richard White]

I'm not counting chickens until late Monday night.

The CPC needs to decide if they want to be a big tent party, or one for the more fringe. The ex-Reform element rules the party and its policies reflect that. That's a "never" from me

They will never be a fringe party however they do need to get back to basics.

If this election has shown anything thus far it's that Trump style American politics isn't welcome up here.

Having a Reform based Conservative Party that only appeals to diehard conservative redneck wannabes won't help.

If the Conservatives want to win nation wide they need to appeal to everyone not just inbred freedom loving white trash in Alberta.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

"We won't touch social programs." "We will continue to bolster civil liberties" "We will make this country prosper for everyone."

...I mean, that seemed to work for Mulroney. Got over 50% of the popular vote...something unheard in federal politics.

 

[MisterF]

Agreed about Manitoba. It leans away from the Conservatives more than it leans towards them. When people discuss "the West" they often are only talking about Alberta and Saskatchewan. There's no such thing as a West that stands politically united against the East.

 

[Admiral Beez]

The CPC needs to decide if they want to be a big tent party, or one for the more fringe.

The CPC was close this time around, even with their small tent. Had Trudeau stayed on, Poilievre would be PM on Monday.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

The CPC was close this time around, even with their small tent. Had Trudeau stayed on, Poilievre would be PM on Monday.

...and we would of crossed that Rubicon that the State side is currently enjoying. The question starts to become, "What where we thinking?"

 

[evandyk]

It's a good thing Trudeau has more good sense than Joe Biden.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It's a good thing Trudeau has more good sense than Joe Biden.

Agreed! Imagine where the USA and world might be today if at the Feb 2023 State of the Union Address, President Biden declares that he will not be running again in Nov 2024, and asks that the DNC hold an open and competitive convention to choose his successor before the end of the year. Hopefully the Dems would decide on a white, male, straight, and under 65 candidate, like Walz who may appeal to the MAGA and centralist Americans. We'd be living in a different reality now.

My thinking on Carney in 2025 is, like the newly elected Winston Churchill in May 1940, the right man for the specifics of that time. Notice how in July 1945, when the European war was over and the UK's needs and priorities changed, Churchill was tossed by the British people. Carney won't undue the lost decade of Trudeau's flawed handling of immigration, housing and the economy... but he will get us through the Trump years and prepare Canada for the possible new MAGA administration that follows Trump. After that, the Canadian people may well toss Carney.

 

[afransen]

It's a good thing Trudeau has more good sense than Joe Biden.

Trudeau had to be dragged kicking and screaming out of office. He wanted to pull a Biden. His caucus rebelled.