[innsertnamehere]

New article from the Globe today suggests that the RTO mandates from the big banks (RBC, BMO, and Scotia now moving toward mandatory 4-days in office) has resulted in a major squeeze on office space for these companies, too many people coming in and not enough desks. It is apparently quite difficult to keep teams together like this and has resulted in people on the same teams being spread across different floors and/or buildings. If the banks are going to need additional spaces in class AAA, it increasingly seems like they are going to have to build it.

There is still a 19% vacancy rate in the downtown and a huge amount of large-block vacant space in A and AA class buildings across downtown. It's not as dire as it may initially seem - Many banks may resort to sticking some of the "less important" departments in A and AA buildings around the downtown. A lot of the older downtown office blocks have huge vacancy rates still (think the 1970's bank buildings which are no longer considered AAA but still very solid space options). Especially if you are willing to go more than a 10 minute walk from Union, there are some very large vacant spaces in literal new build buildings on the edges of downtown.

What would drive Oxford to start here would be a tenant looking for a very large block of AAA space and who is willing to pay above-market for it.

Remember that lease rates are also a driving factor here, even if AAA spaces are leasing up they may be at rents which are below what can finance new-construction space. The market may need years of low vacancy to drive up rents to the point where new construction space is financeable again.

 

[junctionist]

Detroit of all places has seen a small but steady trickle of downtown office tower construction over its troubled recent history since the 1980s. There are always companies that just want an impressive building and developers/landlords that have access to enough credit to make it happen.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Detroit of all places has seen a small but steady trickle of downtown office tower construction over its troubled recent history since the 1980s. There are always companies that just want an impressive building and developers/landlords that have access to enough credit to make it happen.

Detroit is also about to demolish half of the Rennaissance Center. GM is moving to the new-construction space at Hudson's block leaving the RC mostly empty. Detroit has seen a lot of older office space converted or demolished in the last 20 years which has shrunk the overall availability pretty significantly in the downtown, and most of the new construction space (including the Hudson's Block) got signoff before the office market imploded in 2020.

 

[junctionist]

Detroit is also about to demolish half of the Rennaissance Center. GM is moving to the new-construction space at Hudson's block leaving the RC mostly empty. Detroit has seen a lot of older office space converted or demolished in the last 20 years which has shrunk the overall availability pretty significantly in the downtown, and most of the new construction space (including the Hudson's Block) got signoff before the office market imploded in 2020.

It seems like a travesty to mess around with the Renaissance Center as proposed. It’s one of the city’s most recognizable landmarks and a beautiful example of late Modernism. The way the lower towers cradle the centrepiece tower in the as-built design is beautiful and memorable, especially when seen from the river. If anything, demolish the parking garages around the complex.

 

[Civdis]

Could not agree more. As a kid growing up in Windsor, I was in awe of the Rencen project while under construction, (along with the Silver Dome). We know what happened to the Silver Dome, I hope the Rencen does not befall the same fate! Sorry for getting off topic

 

[C-mac]

New article from the Globe today suggests that the RTO mandates from the big banks (RBC, BMO, and Scotia now moving toward mandatory 4-days in office) has resulted in a major squeeze on office space for these companies, too many people coming in and not enough desks. It is apparently quite difficult to keep teams together like this and has resulted in people on the same teams being spread across different floors and/or buildings. If the banks are going to need additional spaces in class AAA, it increasingly seems like they are going to have to build it.

I posted a while back in this thread that I have two friends that work in the industry. Both were mostly working from home. Now both are being told they will need to go into the office at least 4 days if not 5.

 

[wmedia]

Always fun looking back at past predictions, and this quote from myself in September of 2020 might not be true for everyone, it has certainly been true for me and most of my immediate circle. Almost all of us are back to 4 or 5 days in offices now, and stories of being short on desk space are common.

Sep 8, 2020
It'll be fun to look back on these work-from-home discussions in a few years time... when we're all sitting at our desks... in an office.

Walking around the financial district and PATH today at lunchtime, the sidewalks and concourses were packed. In some spots it was actually busier than pre-COVID.

As an AI version of Mark Twain might say... "Reports of downtown Toronto's death are greatly exaggerated."

Anyway, I digress. Bring on The Hub. That surface parking lot is the last one in the area to bite the dust.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Walking around the financial district and PATH today at lunchtime, the sidewalks and concourses were packed. In some spots it was actually busier than pre-COVID.

Keep in mind the loss of establishments from the pandemic though - so there are more potential customers spread among fewer businesses.

AoD

 

[ericmacm]

Detroit of all places has seen a small but steady trickle of downtown office tower construction over its troubled recent history since the 1980s. There are always companies that just want an impressive building and developers/landlords that have access to enough credit to make it happen.

Most of Detroit’s more recent office building construction/rehabilitation has been driven almost exclusively by Rock Ventures/Bedrock, the real estate arm of Dan Gilbert (owner of Rocket Mortgage and many other things), so I am hesitant to say that what’s happened in Detroit is actually organic. I think it is moreso due to the will and power of a billionaire that wants to resurrect his city. It’s also been quite intriguing and encouraging to see Rock Ventures doing the exact same thing in Cleveland now.

I am also saddened to see that there are plans to knock down the two southernmost office towers of the Renaissance Center in Detroit. During my university years in Windsor, the complex was pretty much a fixture of everyday life since it is so prominent. I understand the desire and need to redevelop that complex (it has terrible urban interaction and functions like its own little island within the downtown), and I also understand that converting those unused office towers to residential would be very difficult given the floor sizes/layouts, but I hope they can find a way to fix it without ripping half the complex down.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

One of these days this thread will be bumped because diggers have actually showed up on site to excavate. Hope that's before I start to push daisies... >.<

 

[bmiller]

As reported in the Globe and Mail, with the big banks requiring office workers return to work 4 days a week this fall, they are scrambling for office space. This may lead to a drop in empty offices, and push new builds like the Hub.

 

[TheSix]

As reported in the Globe and Mail, with the big banks requiring office workers return to work 4 days a week this fall, they are scrambling for office space. This may lead to a drop in empty offices, and push new builds like the Hub.

Totally agree it's a great sign. But I think we're still a few years out from this getting the green light. Especially with a recession looming and the big orange chaos machine just gearing up just south of us.

If I had to bet, I don't think we’ll see serious movement until after the 2028 US election. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[BermudaTO37]

Today I read they a big company is out shopping for 1 million sf. TD has announced back to work in November. That leaves CIBC and how far behind do you think they are with that sparking new complex? Called back to work several years ago. Don’t be surprised especially with that big an ask for office space. The builder said they were ready to go and have this delivered in 5 years.

 

[ProjectEnd]

This talk is all navel-gazing binary. Will people come back or won't they? Will we build office towers or won't we? In our internet-infected brains we expect decisions that [rightly] traditionally took years to consume, some now expect in days. It's not realistic.

In the commercial office world nobody is predicting eternal-collapse, but nobody is financing new AAA office towers either. They will very-likely come back, it's just about when.

As of today? This ain't. CC3 ain't. Union Park ain't. 11 Bay ain't. Union Centre sure as shit ain't...

 

[waterismyhouse]

looks like things might be about to get started?

sauce: https://lnkd.in/p/exUzj2dZ