UtakataNoAnnex
Superstar
So somewhere between "just resting" and "pining for the fjords"?
- Thread starter Michael62
- Start date
DopeyFish
Active Member
it makes me happy to see movement
does that mean i'm getting old
does that mean i'm getting old
Amare
Senior Member
Based on what we've seen Oxford pull with Union Park, we shouldn't be in any rush to see this one built anyways. Clearly they have no interest in spending $$ in building something that looks marginally good or that brings comprehensive benefits asides from a bare minimum functional building.
This would've been severely value-engineered if it went ahead today (assuming there was a market for this).
This would've been severely value-engineered if it went ahead today (assuming there was a market for this).
Northern Light
Superstar
Let's start with this, this is a NO News post.
Well, in regards to this project anyway.
Renx has a piece out in which it discusses the recent Avison Young office market report.
The underlying A/Y report is here:
The key bit in the latter report......is that while overall office vacancy remains high......~20% The downtown 'Trophy' or AAA office space vacancy rate has declined to ~6% and falling.
The Renx piece speculates that this could trigger construction of another major tower in the near term.
It notes that a project underway by year end 2025 would probably only being doing occupancy in 2030, by which time the market might be extremely tight.
Joe Almeida of A/Y, in response to questions from Renx is quoted as speculating that 'The Hub' is the most likely tower to break ground.
Renx sought comment from Oxford on that, but did not get a reply.
Well, in regards to this project anyway.
Renx has a piece out in which it discusses the recent Avison Young office market report.
The underlying A/Y report is here:
The key bit in the latter report......is that while overall office vacancy remains high......~20% The downtown 'Trophy' or AAA office space vacancy rate has declined to ~6% and falling.
The Renx piece speculates that this could trigger construction of another major tower in the near term.
It notes that a project underway by year end 2025 would probably only being doing occupancy in 2030, by which time the market might be extremely tight.
Joe Almeida of A/Y, in response to questions from Renx is quoted as speculating that 'The Hub' is the most likely tower to break ground.
Renx sought comment from Oxford on that, but did not get a reply.
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innsertnamehere
Superstar
This chart is interesting - the office market does finally seem to be trending back towards absorption again. Vacancy rates may have peaked, and there is effectively no supply for 4-5 years minimum after CIBC Square Phase 2 finishes up.
Absorbtion is also substantially higher downtown than the rest of the GTA - 1.3 million sf has been absorbed downtown while the rest of the GTA continues to see substantial increases in vacancies. The eastern GTA office market has always been weak, but man.. -583,000sf in 6 months.
Absorbtion is also substantially higher downtown than the rest of the GTA - 1.3 million sf has been absorbed downtown while the rest of the GTA continues to see substantial increases in vacancies. The eastern GTA office market has always been weak, but man.. -583,000sf in 6 months.
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mburrrrr
Senior Member
The heritage part is done. Let’s get going with the tower to keep the construction economy going. CIBC phase 2 will be done. 
The back of the building really is the back of the house. Each floor has kitchen views of downtown. I can’t think of any other kitchen having window views.
The air vents are grey. Toronto pre-approved……this must be happening.
The back of the building really is the back of the house. Each floor has kitchen views of downtown. I can’t think of any other kitchen having window views.
The air vents are grey. Toronto pre-approved……this must be happening.
biospherian
Active Member
Except in 5 years, 40% of white collar jobs will be automated away.
Unless you want to fill the 259m tower with dental offices.
Unless you want to fill the 259m tower with dental offices.
Northern Light
Superstar
There is absolutely no truth to that statement whatsoever.
If you're going to make outlandish claims, at least provide a credible source/citation.
biospherian
Active Member
Northern Light
Superstar
Key statements from the above:
Could affect (Does not say will result in the elimination of)
up to 40% of jobs, (all types, no specificity as to what type)
World wide.
A careful read will suggest that...........
The risks are highest for entry level white collar jobs, often call centre, customer service, or very basic tasks.
The majority of AAA space is occupied by Finance and Law firms.
The call centres are not in AAA space.
AI may well see some job losses, but I think the suggestion that they will displace 40% of workers in AAA towers, in the next 5-10 years far exceeds credulity.
It reminds me of people who said 'WFH' is the new norm............and I said 'No it's not, and it won't be'...... and people kept doubting, as remote work and WFM are being phased out for the majority.
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The Preservationist
Active Member
I for one would like to see this project realized by the early 2030s. To me it represents one of the last plots of undeveloped central railroad lands, and as an added bonus, would add some variance from the increasingly condo centric islands view.
Strange Advance
Active Member
Dentistry will be automated in the not too distant future as well.
biospherian
Active Member
Finance and Law are two fields that are at most risk of being automated by AI.
The report doesn't take into account AI agents which are being rolled out in the latter half of this year.
Northern Light
Superstar
If you insist on making this case, so be it; but as it is not intrinsically about this project, you ought to start a dedicated thread under the General Discussions section of the forum.
Additionally, if you're going to make these assertions, you're going to have to provide more substantive, and robust evidence as to what jobs are at risk, by what means, and over what time.
Last I checked, AI is not licensed by the Ontario bar. It is not recognized to serve as legal counsel in court, nor to to generate a contract, nor does privilege apply when using it. So I'd be interested to read the evidence that lawyers will be phased out..
When it comes to banking, there are certainly some aspects that can be further automated. The level of AI accuracy as this point is sufficiently problematic that I can't imagine any reputable firm using to give investment advice.
Could it make some stock trades, once the orders are placed? Sure. Many day trading operations are already highly automated in this regard.
Could AI augment financial forecasting? Probably, in due course could it thin the number of people devoted to same? Sure...... but the assertion of whole sale, large-scale, job reduction seems premature.
Again, I'm open to arguments and more importantly evidence. Please bring some, to your new thread.
****
Now, let's return this thread to its intended subject.
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ericmacm
Active Member
New article from the Globe today suggests that the RTO mandates from the big banks (RBC, BMO, and Scotia now moving toward mandatory 4-days in office) has resulted in a major squeeze on office space for these companies, too many people coming in and not enough desks. It is apparently quite difficult to keep teams together like this and has resulted in people on the same teams being spread across different floors and/or buildings. If the banks are going to need additional spaces in class AAA, it increasingly seems like they are going to have to build it.