No, all it is saying is suburban A is more attractive than urban B and C. And note they use the "could". It's a projection, but it is unlikely to impact the trophy AAA's or even downtown A builds that much, especially well connected new inventory near Union. Union obviously acts as a big pull, because most people can commute there. Far more stressful to drive each day to your crappy suburban office building in Mississauga if you live in say Whitby, for example.

At the end of the day, I often feel like 3rd party reporting like this is trying to create urgency. Just look at the language they use near the end. 'You better start leasing agreements now, and by the way, we can totally help you with that.'
 
Yes. Colliers is ultimately a leasing agency who profits from helping companies sign leases- they want to drive leasing and urgency.

But you can read between the lines on what is actually happening in the market - AAA space is tightening, total vacancy rates have peaked and on the decline, and once CIBC II comes online there will be basically nothing in the pipeline for at least 4 years. We are likely to see leasing activity switch to class A assets (think the older bank buildings) if AAA assets lease up in the next 2-3 years as they are speculating, which will put pressure on rents and push landlords like Oxford to start thinking about bringing forward new supply.

It also addresses dropping interest rates which improves the balance book on new construction space as well.

It's not a guarantee that any new construction will move forward soon - just showing that the office market decline has bottomed out and appears to finally be on the rebound. The question is just how long it takes to rebound to the point where the pension funds are willing to back a new building again.

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UrbanAffair said:
No, all it is saying is suburban A is more attractive than urban B and C. And note they use the "could". It's a projection, but it is unlikely to impact the trophy AAA's or even downtown A builds that much, especially well connected new inventory near Union. Union obviously acts as a big pull, because most people can commute there. Far more stressful to drive each day to your crappy suburban office building in Mississauga if you live in say Whitby, for example.

At the end of the day, I often feel like 3rd party reporting like this is trying to create urgency. Just look at the language they use near the end. 'You better start leasing agreements now, and by the way, we can totally help you with that.'
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All true.

****

Just to note for others though.

The suburban and B/C markets more broadly continue to have high vacancy in most of the country, with rates generally in the teens.

The AAA/Trophy markets in big cities are generally trending at or below 6% vacancy which is functionally full. Meaning there is insufficient contiguous space for a medium or large tenant.

Class A (ie, good, modern/renewed building, but in an off-prime location or with modern smaller floor plates) is in the middle somewhere.

In respect of the overall space in Canada, something to note is that over 8,000,000ft2 of space is gone from the peak; much of it to residential conversion (mainly in Calgary) and some to demolition as well.

More of same is on the way.

We're not yet at the point where a new build is needed today; but given a 4-5 year lag to deliver a new building, you're thinking of where the market will be in 2030/31, not today.

None of which tells us exactly when, or exactly which project will get a green light in Toronto, but 'The Hub' is certainly a contender, and one is likely to move sooner than later.
 
UtakataNoAnnex said:
^This suggest that those stumpy office towers we saw dotting the burbs and freeways will start sprouting up like mushrooms?
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Not really. Brick and Beam buildings are what the Toronto market of 2019 called 'Class B', so the spaces surrounding the DT core they're referring to are King West, King East, St Clair, etc.

When Colliers refers to the 'downtown fringe' they're usually referring to outside a 1-2km circle centred on King/York. This would be a perimeter of streets such as Spadina/Sherbourne/Bloor.

Keep in mind this activity is all happening solely in Class A/AAA space. Employers are doing their damndest to lure employees back to office, and GO connectivity, PATH connectivity, building amenities etc are king in accomplishing that.
 
...I am weirdly happy that my question is getting all shot to pieces here. Thanks for clarifying things everyones! /bows
 
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