[Rainforest]

The truth is, nobody knows for sure what will happen when the Line 5 opens in 2025/2026, and how fast ridership will grow as people get used to a (hopefully) reliable and fast crosstown transit option. As Reece Martin and many other people have predicted, the ridership estimates for Eglinton could be woefully low. As late as 2016, Metrolinx predicted only 162,000 daily riders by 2031, a third of Line 2's current daily weekday ridership. In 2017, Metrolinx predicted the GTHA would reach 10 million by 2041, but by the most conservative estimates it is already around 8.5 million, and likely closer to 9.5 million when factoring in disproportionate growth in the GTHA vs. non-metropolitan areas since 2021 and overstayed visas (Benjamin Tal from CIBC).

It looks like we are debating the quality of predictions about predictions. This line will be in active operation within several months, and then we will have the real-life counts.

Absolulely "worst" case scenario: demand beats all expectations, then the TTC has to continue running substantial bus service together with the LRT, and scramble to order more LRT cars. Still not the end of the world.

 

[urbanclient]

With a completely underground line or ground-separated, they'd be unlikely to use low-floor or narrower vehicles; that would be very Mickey Mouse!And I'd guess not 30-metre long cars either.

That's for the 100% grade-separated, with the extension to Scarborough Town Centre - which was causing concerns about the ultimate demand being too high before the cancelled the project.

But that's not what has been built. With Line 2 going to STC rather than Line 5, for most people that are continuing all the way to Line 1, they are going to stay on Line 2, rather than change to Line 5. This moves the peak PPDPH back to west of Cedarvale, instead of east of Yonge (somewhere ... I can't remember if it was west of Mount Pleasant or east of Don Mills).

I am confused, how do line length and/or terminus impact PPDPH assuming the requisite trainsets and platforms can be acquired? If you look at Option 3, 19km, which is more or less what we got in the end (Table 2.2, 2.4), the only way to hit 15,000 passengers per hour with the added condition of having 90 metre platforms is to do 3 car trainsets, 2 minutes apart, each car holding 163 people. 3*30*163=14,670. I personally doubt the real-world feasibility of maintaining 2 minute headways without bunching on a mixed grade LRT. The TTC has proven incapable of running consistent <3 minute headways on Line 1 and 2.

https://assets.metrolinx.com/image/upload/v1663237573/Documents/Metrolinx/Benefits_Case-Eglinton_Crosstown.pdf

 

[nfitz]

I am confused, how do line length and/or terminus impact PPDPH assuming the requisite trainsets and platforms can be acquired? If you look at Option 3, 19km, which is more or less what we got in the end (Table 2.2, 2.4), the only way to hit 15,000 passengers per hour with 90 metre platforms is to do 3 car trainsets, 2 minutes apart, each car holding 163 people. 3*30*163=14,670. I personally doubt the real-world feasibility of maintaining 2 minute headways without bunching on a mixed grade LRT.

Most of the line is grade-separated. Including the highest PPHPD east at Cedarvale, east at Yonge, and west at Yonge. By the time you get out to Kennedy, the westbound demand at AM peak is almost half that as eastbound at Cedarvale.

In the unlikely event that all the experts are wrong, then they can ultimately schedule more trains that short-turn before Scarborough, and use the ATC - which would get them close to a 90-second frequency.

Eglinton certainly has problems now, and likely will operationally. But that it's going to start too crowded is laughable. The hugely successful Canada line subway in Vancouver is surviving quite well with only 40-metre long platforms, 15-year after opening - and even I fear that there may be long-term issues there.

 

[cplchanb]

It looks like we are debating the quality of predictions about predictions. This line will be in active operation within several months, and then we will have the real-life counts.

Absolulely "worst" case scenario: demand beats all expectations, then the TTC has to continue running substantial bus service together with the LRT, and scramble to order more LRT cars. Still not the end of the world.

Thats rather a good problem to have vs the opposite like line 4