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Towered said:
Time is on the side of the defender. They have fought "mighty" Russia to a standstill and are comfortably holding the frontlines. Remember, in the last 2 years, Russia has not made any significant advancements despite throwing everything they have into the effort. Their casualty numbers remain atrocious. They are weaker and more vulnerable than they've ever been. They can't even take back the large chunk of Kursk that Ukraine occupied last summer. There's never been a more golden opportunity to finish this vile enemy off than now.

If I were president of the US, I wouldn't even consider talking to Russia. I wouldn't even respond to them if they reached out. The first thing I'd do is send Ukraine 200-300 F-16's, 1000 tanks, and another 6-8 Patriot air defense systems. And that would just be the start.

That's how you properly deal with an aggressive terrorist state that's been a thorn in the side of the West for 100 years. Time to end the game.
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This is the craziest part about all this. It wouldn't take much at this point for Donald Trump to be an absolute hero and Reagan 2.0. Send Ukraine a few brigades worth of kit and lift restrictions on them, and they'd smash Russia hard. Sadly, he is a Russian asset. And he follows a Biden administration that was way too cautious.

Honestly, it seems to me that a lot of the American establishment may actually be worried more about Russia falling apart than Russia facing consequences for destroying the international rules based order.
 
Admiral Beez said:
The country, its people and its political parties need to hit rock bottom before they can begin to climb back.
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They will never recover from this. Smart countries, friend and foe are plotting. I read a proposal in the UK to offer American scientists fast track immigration and citizenship. And at the same time, I've seen concerns that disgruntled national security workers could take secrets to adversaries. I don't think many people (but particularly Americans) understand how bad and irreversible this is. In 50 years, if China is top dog, it will be in no small part because of everything we're watching right now.
 
kEiThZ said:
This is the craziest part about all this. It wouldn't take much at this point for Donald Trump to be an absolute hero and Reagan 2.0. Send Ukraine a few brigades worth of kit and lift restrictions on them, and they'd smash Russia hard. Sadly, he is a Russian asset. And he follows a Biden administration that was way too cautious.

Honestly, it seems to me that a lot of the American establishment may actually be worried more about Russia falling apart than Russia facing consequences for destroying the international rules based order.
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What would be the consequences of Russia falling apart in your opinion?
 
kEiThZ said:
They will never recover from this. Smart countries, friend and foe are plotting. I read a proposal in the UK to offer American scientists fast track immigration and citizenship. And at the same time, I've seen concerns that disgruntled national security workers could take secrets to adversaries. I don't think many people (but particularly Americans) understand how bad and irreversible this is. In 50 years, if China is top dog, it will be in no small part because of everything we're watching right now.
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Agreed though there is a caveat.

Shortly after the Second World War German scientists left for the USSR to help start their nuclear weapons program. That lead to the Cold War.

Be careful what you wish for because anything can happen.
 

Ukraine agrees to minerals deal with U.S. after Trump administration ‘drops toughest demands’ — FT​


From https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/02/25/ukraine-agrees-to-minerals-deal-with-u-s-after-trump-administration-drops-toughest-demands-ft

Ukrainian negotiators have reached an agreement with the Trump administration on the terms of a natural resources deal, The Financial Times reported on Tuesday.

According to Ukrainian officials, Kyiv agreed to sign a deal on the joint development of Ukraine’s mineral resources, including oil and gas, after Washington dropped its demand that the U.S. receive $500 billion in potential revenue from the venture.

The final version of the agreement, dated February 24 and reviewed by FT, stipulates the creation of a fund to which Ukraine will allocate 50 percent of future revenues from the extraction of minerals, oil, and gas. The fund will be used to invest in projects within Ukraine. According to The Financial Times, the fund’s activities will not apply to resources already included in Ukraine’s state budget, meaning it will not affect the operations of Naftogaz and Ukrnafta, the country’s largest oil and gas producers.

However, the agreement does not mention U.S. security guarantees, which Kyiv had insisted upon. Additionally, issues such as the U.S. share in the fund and the deal’s “joint ownership” terms are left unresolved, to be settled in subsequent agreements.

Ukrainian officials told the FT that the deal has been approved by the ministers of justice, economy, and foreign affairs. Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada must also approve it. According to the newspaper’s sources, President Zelensky is expected to travel to the White House in the coming weeks for a signing ceremony with Trump.

FT’s sources in Ukraine said the settlement reached is merely a “framework agreement” and that no revenues will be transferred until the fund itself is established.

On February 24, Donald Trump announced that he planned to meet with Zelensky in the Oval Office within the next two weeks to sign the natural resources agreement.
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​
President Zelensky included the mineral resources proposal in the “Victory Plan” he presented to American leaders in September 2024. President Trump has said he expects to receive $500 billion worth of mineral resources from Ukraine in exchange for American aid. During U.S.-Ukrainian negotiations, Washington proposed several versions of a resource agreement. One of them stipulated that the U.S. would receive a 100-percent stake in the joint fund to be created as part of the deal. Ukraine rejected this demand, and it was removed from the final version of the agreement.​
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Towered said:
What would be the consequences of Russia falling apart in your opinion?
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The big fear is something worse than the 90s where arms proliferated all over the world. If the state genuinely fragments, we might have to worry about WMD proliferation.

On the same token I think it's nonsensical to let the Russians behave, however, they want based on our own fears of them driving their own country into the ditch.
 
Richard White said:
Agreed though there is a caveat.

Shortly after the Second World War German scientists left for the USSR to help start their nuclear weapons program. That lead to the Cold War.

Be careful what you wish for because anything can happen.
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This was the fear in the 90s and the Americans both paid Russian scientists (to keep them employed) and funded weapons decommissioning as part of threat reduction and employment creation. Given the state of Russia today, I think this portion of risk is probably lower. Putin hasn't been creating talent like the Soviets did during the Cold War.
 
Not traditional military, but there's a lot of state hacking talent and infrastructure that has been created which could do huge damage in the hands of other states or organized crime. Though TBH the line is so blurred between Putin and organized crime that those groups may already have access to all of the cyber-weapons the state has.
 
Towered said:
Trump could always borrow some of mine - they're very stretchy ;)
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