[Admiral Beez]

If the Liberals were smart, they would call an election in the next week or so

They’ll likely call it tomorrow or as soon as Carney’s back from Europe. The election cannot occur before 37 days from that date and must occur on a Monday.

So, if the election is called between tomorrow and Friday, it will be held on Monday, April 28th.

 

[Monarch Butterfly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1901230715691225156

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

^I think that was from his victory speech...
------

...anywhoose, not to be the one to throw cold water on this, but the latest from 388 has things a bit more tame:

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

They update this once a week on Sundays apparently. And keep in mind, this is a poll tracker...so they don't conduct polls themselves as far as I am aware, rather average results from other polls over the given time frame.

...but it does certainly show climb in favour of the Libs at the expense of other parties. And currently, for the first time in what seems eons they have the Libs are just ahead in seat projected count. Not sure this is the canoe flipping we seen in over polls posted from the page back, but they're seem to be on a projection to do so. /fingers crossed

Edit/Erratum: 338* has things a bit more tame...proper.

 

[Admiral Beez]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1901230715691225156

If it’s a Right, put it in the Constitution. Let’s add Housing while we’re at it. Here are the current six Rights under the Constitution:

• Democratic Rights (Sections 3-5)
• Mobility Rights (Section 6)
• Legal Rights (Sections 7-14)
• Equality Rights (Section 15)
• Language Rights (Sections 16-23)
• Indigenous Rights (Sections 25 & 35 of the Constitution Act, 1982)

If it’s not in the Constitution, it’s not a Right. Newb or not, our PM should know that.

 

[lenaitch]

If it’s a Right, put it in the Constitution. Let’s add Housing while we’re at it. Here are the current six Rights under the Constitution:

• Democratic Rights (Sections 3-5)
• Mobility Rights (Section 6)
• Legal Rights (Sections 7-14)
• Equality Rights (Section 15)
• Language Rights (Sections 16-23)
• Indigenous Rights (Sections 25 & 35 of the Constitution Act, 1982)

If it’s not in the Constitution, it’s not a Right. Newb or not, our PM should know that.

Some argue that access to healthcare falls under Section 7 ('life, liberty and security of the person') but I'm not aware of any case that has made its way to Supreme Court.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Some argue that access to healthcare falls under Section 7 ('life, liberty and security of the person') but I'm not aware of any case that has made its way to Supreme Court.

If we can get secure housing as a right we’ll go a long way to reducing healthcare costs.

 

[chrisw]

Anita Anand 8 min interview. Industry is important at this time. Building Canadian supply chains so we don't need to rely on America.

The focus from the Minister of Industry is on building Canadian domestic economic resilience, that means reducing interprovincial barriers to trade, supporting Canadian industry not just in auto manufacturing but across the manufacturing, natural resource and energy sectors, and ensuring Canadian workers are supported all along.

 

[Admiral Beez]

…supporting Canadian industry not just in auto manufacturing but across the manufacturing,

A big challenge for Ontario is that manufacturing, especially in any plant with over 1,000 employees is often US or foreign owned. Is it Canadian industry if all the profits flow offshore? Quebec does manufacturing completely different than Ontario, with much of the industry being family owned, and owned in-part by the provincial government through QPP investment.

 

[chrisw]

A big challenge for Ontario is that manufacturing, especially in any plant with over 1,000 employees is often US or foreign owned. Is it Canadian industry if all the profits flow offshore? Quebec does manufacturing completely different than Ontario, with much of the industry being family owned, and owned in-part by the provincial government through QPP investment.

All the wages stay onshore. The big issue currently are US tariffs and counter tariffs.

 

[chrisw]

Innovation Minister Anita Anand on Monday wrote hundreds of organizations that have received Strategic Innovation Fund and Supercluster money asking them to switch to domestically-made metal.

“I am writing you as a beneficiary of public investment through Innovation, Economic Development Canada programs,” the minister wrote in her letter.

“I am writing to call on you to use Canadian inputs, especially Canadian steel and aluminum products, wherever relevant and possible, as your project develops.”

“Today it is the steel and aluminum industries in Canada that are being targeted; tomorrow it could be others,” Ms. Anand wrote.

Last week she announced that Ottawa will begin prioritizing funding of projects that use predominantly Canadian steel and aluminum.

Ottawa asks all federal grant recipients to switch to Canadian steel and aluminum

Letter from new Industry Minister urges use of ‘Canadian inputs’ as part of response to U.S. tariffs

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

All the wages stay onshore. The big issue currently are US tariffs and counter tariffs.

That's the issue today. Tomorrow it could be the White House demanding that US subsidiaries operating in Canada move their production to the US. Tariffs would be one tool to get that to happen, with the White House pushing Ford, GM and
Stellantis to close/reduce their Canadian plants and move production and wages/jobs to the US. But it's not just cars.

 

[nfitz]

They’ll likely call it tomorrow or as soon as Carney’s back from Europe. The election cannot occur before 37 days from that date and must occur on a Monday.

So, if the election is called between tomorrow and Friday, it will be held on Monday, April 28th.

I don't think anything precludes not going for the minimum length. But yeah, I expect it will called soon. April 28th or May 5th I'd guess. Somehow May 5 is giving my the vibe. (highly scientific !)

Especially since they've just undercut the only two items Poilievre has campaigned on:
1. Not Trudeau!
2. Carbon tax is EEVILLL!

And the Capital Gains increase that seems to piss off many (many who'll never see a quarter of a million in gains in any given year!). And the high immigration rate. And inlation currently at 1.9%.

All that the Conservatives have left is cancel the CBC, cancel Pharmacare, cancel dentalcare, and cancel childcare. None of which seems to be particularly inspiring or massively popular (I've never heard anyone complain about the latter 3 - and only the hardcore are concerned about the former). I'd think if anything eliminating the English CBC (but promising to keep the French) would alienate a lot of people - especially seniors.

 

[Jonny5]

Angus Reid now with the same surge, though I don't understand that time scale on the bottom axis but I assume that is simply a copy/paste editing error.

Anyway, the meat of this: "Over this three-month period Liberal support has jumped 30 points in the city of Toronto, 25 points in 905 ridings."

Conservatives Crumble: Liberals surge past CPC into majority territory, but Grits’ vote commitment is softer - Angus Reid Institute

Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP March 17, 2025 – A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing...

angusreid.org

 

[nfitz]

Angus Reid now with the same surge, though I don't understand that time scale on the bottom axis but I assume that is simply a copy/paste editing error.

Looks like what I used to get when I had students do an Excel graph, which doesn't easily account for months, and you start with December 1 or something as the first date.

Or could be the polling dates.

 

[afransen]

Angus Reid now with the same surge, though I don't understand that time scale on the bottom axis but I assume that is simply a copy/paste editing error.

Anyway, the meat of this: "Over this three-month period Liberal support has jumped 30 points in the city of Toronto, 25 points in 905 ridings."

Conservatives Crumble: Liberals surge past CPC into majority territory, but Grits’ vote commitment is softer - Angus Reid Institute

Singh’s party down to single digits as left of centre voters stampede away from the NDP March 17, 2025 – A whirlwind first quarter of 2025 has swept up Canadian politics and tossed it back down in an unrecognizable jumble. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the governing...

angusreid.org

View attachment 637503

I think the bigger story than the CPC 'crumble' is the NDP implosion.