While Poilievre faces only token partisan opposition in this byelection, there's another challenge: How he contends with an increasingly vocal separatist movement in the Conservative heartland.
Jeffrey Rath is a leader of the Alberta Prosperity Project. The group is trying to build support for an independent Alberta, which the province's premier says is at an all-time high. A recent poll
found support at about 30 per cent.
In an interview with CBC News, Rath said the byelection outcome is not in doubt.
"People can't stomach voting for anyone else," he said.
Still, Rath said, independence-minded voters are looking for substantive answers from Poilievre on the issues they care about most, namely how Alberta can be better treated in a federation some feel isn't working for them anymore.
He predicts Poilievre will sidestep controversial issues and a close association with separatist voices so he can go back to Ottawa and vie for national power without any Alberta baggage.
"Poilievre ran in the last election against the end of equalization. The dairy cartel-mafia has gotten to him — he says he's not going to touch supply management," Rath said.
"He's pandering to Ontario and Quebec and I can tell you, a lot of Albertans, we're sick of it."