@Willybru21 over on the Discord server "Global Transit & Infrastructure Central" posted this image in the GO Transit thread. Apparently at the recent TRACCS conference, a version of this map was shown and
@Willybru21 was able to clean it up. cc
@smallspy @crs1026 @Northern Light @reaperexpress
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Some thoughts on the '10-year fleet plan' map, keeping in mind that it may simply represent a worst case scenario used as a cautionary tale:
As noted by others, it's odd that they show electric service to Hamilton. One possibility is that they're using the term broadly to include dual-mode trains (diesel + overhead wire, or battery + overhead wire). Montreal has 19 surplus ALP45DP diesel+electric locomotives left over from when the Mont Royal tunnel was available for mainline trains, and that would be sufficient to run the services shown as 'electric locomotive' (hourly all-day service from Bowmanville to Hamilton plus some peak-period trains from Hamilton and Aldershot). I'm sure Exo would be happy to trade their ALP45DPs for the refurbished F59PHs that GO is currently building.
The weirdest part is that they show the EMUs also continuing to Aldershot, which is in CN territory. If they plan to electrify that segment then that's fine, but if they're thinking of battery-electric multiple units, that's a problem. Nowadays it makes sense for EMUs to have some off-wire capacity to travel around yards and get to the next station in the event of a power failure. But the larger the batteries need to be, the heavier/slower the trains are, and the more expensive they are to purchase and maintain. Needing to carry heavy batteries across the entire line just to extend the local service a bit further towards Hamilton seems like a poor use of passengers' time and money.
As others have noted, it's bizarre that they show the UPX being electrified but not the local service to Bramalea. Bramalea is only 1 km beyond the edge of Metrolinx trackage, so even if CN flatly refuses to electrify that stretch (which would be odd considering they'd never run a double-stack freight train on those particular tracks anyway), it wouldn't take much battery capacity for an EMU to travel to and from the station. Regardless of electrification, it would probably be good for Metrolinx to purchase the southern two tracks through Bramalea anyway since we'd hope to run a bunch of service terminating there. No point paying CN indefinitely for track access and dispatching for a bunch of trains that only just barely graze the edge of their territory before heading back to Toronto.
As for the frequencies themselves, my biggest concern with that business-as-usual scenario is that the low total frequencies on the core sections imply that the trains coming from distant cities like Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph and Barrie are making all stops. The only off-peak express trains I can deduce on there are the 4 trains per day from Niagara Falls, which is the same frequency we already had 5 years ago. Low average speeds on longer distance services would severely undermine the GO network's ability to compete with 400-series highways. It is essential for the longer distance trains to operate
in addition to the local service. For example on Lakeshore West, the express service to West Harbour should be in addition to the 15-minute local service to Burlington, for a total of 5 to 6 trains per hour off-peak between Burlington and Toronto. The hourly express train from Barrie should be in addition to the half-hourly local train from Aurora, etc.