[kEiThZ]

Panavia Tornados instead of Hornets, Short Belfasts instead of Hercules, Airbus Atlas instead Boeing Globemasters, and finally, Rafales instead of Lightnings.

This is silly.

The Hornet has been great for Canada. Far better than the Tornado would have been. The latter would have been more expensive to buy and much more expensive to own. And would have probably retired early. See the RAF.

Also, the Atlas is a replacement for the Herc. Not the C-17. Again, see the RAF.

Finally, the Rafale is not at all a replacement for the Panther. 4th gens, even supposed 4++ or 4.5 Gen get their ass kicked all the time in exercises with F-35s. I know the public discourse is pretty ignorant on the subject. But the comparison has been made that the F-35 is more like an iPhone, where 4.5 Gen (Rafale, Typhoon, Super Hornets) are like flip phones and 4th Gen (like our CF-18s) are like dial-up internet. That's how stark the difference is.

The only reason the Europeans aren't all that worried about the 5th gen race is because their primary opponent is Russia (who isn't that far ahead with 5th gen aircraft), several European countries have F-35s, and they have long range missiles (Meteor) which would be sufficient to deal with the Russians. If Chinese 5th gen ends up in Russian inventory you will see absolute panic.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This is silly.

Ok then.

 

[kEiThZ]

Milblogger Perun just made a video looking at the hypothetical of designing a European force with limited ITAR exposure. It's fantastic. Features a number of systems I would have picked like the British CAMM, French Akeron and Swedish Meteor missiles. If you're wondering what it would take to limit American control over weapons, this is a good watch.

 

[kEiThZ]

UK open to Canadian involvement in new fighter jet project

The UK government has signalled its openness to future collaboration with Canada on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the international effort to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Interesting.

 

[Admiral Beez]

UK open to Canadian involvement in new fighter jet project

The UK government has signalled its openness to future collaboration with Canada on the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), the international effort to develop a next-generation fighter jet by 2035.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

Interesting.

Nice. This would presumably be a late 2040s successor for Canada's incoming mixed force of F-35s and Rafales/Gripens/Typhoons.

 

[kEiThZ]

Nice. This would presumably be a late 2040s successor for Canada's incoming mixed force of F-35s and Rafales/Gripens/Typhoons.

EIS for GCAP is 2035. Canada would start getting ours in the late 2030s.

 

[Admiral Beez]

EIS for GCAP is 2035. Canada would start getting ours in the late 2030s.

That would be a record short service life for our F-35s if that's the case. Historically, Canada would operate its postwar fighters for about three decades, with the exception of the CF-18 and its more than four decades of service.

Though I expect the F-35 is not as robustly built as the older types, so two decades may be its average service life. The F-22 is seeing serious panel cracking, for example.

 

[kEiThZ]

That would be a record short service life for our F-35s if that's the case.

Who said we're retiring the F-35s in the 2030s?

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Colombia Choses Saab JAS 39 Gripen as its Newest Frontline Fighter Jet

Colombia signed a letter of intent for the acquisition of the Gripen E, launching the negotiations which would make the country the type’s second South

theaviationist.com

According to Reuters, Colombia plans to buy 16 to 24 Saab JAS39 Gripen combat fighters.

 

[kEiThZ]

Colombia Choses Saab JAS 39 Gripen as its Newest Frontline Fighter Jet

Colombia signed a letter of intent for the acquisition of the Gripen E, launching the negotiations which would make the country the type’s second South

theaviationist.com

According to Reuters, Colombia plans to buy 16 to 24 Saab JAS39 Gripen combat fighters.

Are the Americans going to allow it or veto?

Not So Fast: America Shoots Down Sweden’s Gripen Jet Deal With Colombia

But blocking the Saab deal could push Bogotá—and perhaps other countries in Latin America—to explore alternative options, including those from China.

nationalinterest.org

Muggles need to understand how ITAR works.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Are the Americans going to allow it or veto?

Not So Fast: America Shoots Down Sweden’s Gripen Jet Deal With Colombia

But blocking the Saab deal could push Bogotá—and perhaps other countries in Latin America—to explore alternative options, including those from China.

nationalinterest.org

Muggles need to understand how ITAR works.

Maybe yesterday's tariffs pushed Columbia...

Breaking News: Sweden's Saab Gripen E/F Selected by Colombia in Fighter Jet Competition Against US F-16​

That’s two LATAM wins for SAAB. Brazil also chose the SAAB Gripen due to significant tensions in US-Brazil relations. In this case after the 2013 revelations by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden about US surveillance of Brazil.

If I'm a sales guy at Lockheed-Martin or Boeing I'd be telling that tool to shut his hole. As for Canada, if the Gripen is good enough for NATO members Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary, plus South Africa, Thailand, Brazil, Malaysia, Switzerland and now Columbia, I’d say it’s good enough for Canada too. We’re more than familiar with US spec engines.

 

[kEiThZ]

I've said it before. I'll say it again. You don't send a message to the Americans by buying a substantially less capable aircraft that is full of American sourced parts and IP. If we're ditching the F-35 completely (and that's not at all clear), we're better off joining GCAP and if a bridge is needed maybe leasing and buying Rafales or Typhoons.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I've said it before. I'll say it again. You don't send a message to the Americans by buying a substantially less capable aircraft that is full of American sourced parts and IP. If we're ditching the F-35 completely (and that's not at all clear), we're better off joining GCAP and if a bridge is needed maybe leasing and buying Rafales or Typhoons.

I like the idea of ditching the F-35 completely. We can put an export tariff on potash or something else the US needs to pay the cancellation fine or otherwise just eat it like we did when we canceled the Merlin helicopter deal. But why not the Gripen? We’re well experienced with its US-origin Pratt & Whitney engine and other systems.

 

[kEiThZ]

But why not the Gripen?

The Gripen is problematic for us. It's limited in capability and limited in room to grow. Which means we'd have to start limiting commitments in the late 2030s and replace it early (early 2040s). It would have been the right aircraft to buy in 2010. It's the wrong aircraft to start taking delivery in 2030. At this point, why not just go straight to GCAP?

Gripen advocates also forget that Sweden gets away with it because their neighbours fly F-35s and Typhoons. There's a certain synergy. If we're reducing reliance on the US, we won't have that.

 

[Admiral Beez]

At this point, why not just go straight to GCAP?

We can't operate the Hornets for five plus decades. Has any nation leased/rented Rafales or Typhoons as you suggest? I suppose we could buy 2nd Super Hornets or something else.