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The population of the country will decrease in total? When has that happened outside of like war or famine? I’m not trying to be a jerk, really genuinely curious about this.
  • Last year, Alberta saw its highest net gains from interprovincial migration in more than 20 years, according to new Statistics Canada data. The Edmonton census metropolitan area recorded 13,893 arrivals from other provinces, and Calgary recorded 20,859, while Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal all saw net losses. Overall, the Edmonton area recorded 4.5% annual demographic growth in 2024, compared to 1.8% in 2019 and 3.1% in 2014.
Plus
  • Canadian policymakers worried about temporary residents overstaying their visas can rest easy. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows that non-permanent residents left the country in record volumes in Q3 2024. New limits announced in Q4 has elected officials publicly voicing concerns that these residents may overstay their visas. However, that concern seems overblown considering the exodus of non-permanent residents reached its target outflow right before the changes were announced. Impeccable timing, as always. [LINK]
No one really knows what to expect from the growing "anti-growth" mentality, but it's not unreasonable to expect substantial departures given Canada's housing and job markets.
 
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GoA's Q4 2024 Population Report just came out. It has been viewed by 30 people total so far, so hot off the presses. Some highlights:

  • Alberta maintained its position as the fastest-growing province in Canada for the sixth consecutive quarter.
  • For the tenth quarter in a row, Alberta led the country in interprovincial net migration gains.
  • Recent federal policy changes, such as caps on international student permits and restrictions on temporary foreign worker permits, have contributed to a slowdown in non-permanent resident gains. Alberta led the country in net non-permanent resident inflows.
As of January 1, 2025, Alberta’s population is estimated to have reached 4,960,097. Between October 1, 2024,and December 31, 2024, Alberta’s population grew by 28,496 residents (0.6%), down from 1.0% during the sameperiod in 2023. Net international migration was the biggest driver of Alberta’s growth in the fourth quarter of2024, contributing 0.4%, followed by net interprovincial migration at 0.1% and natural increase with 0.1%.
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Alberta welcomed 15,038 immigrants in the fourth quarter, setting a record for this data series (since 1971). This accounted for 14.5% of national arrivals, a provincial high not seen since 2017. Alberta’s immigration arrivals for the fourth quarter were second only to Ontario (46.3%), while British Columbia and Quebec’s shares were 12.3% and 12.1%, respectively.

TL;DR: Migration isn't slowing.
 
On a related note, from Better Dwelling:

Over 1 In 14 People In Canada Are Non-Permanent Residents, 2x In 4 Years

Canada’s population just had its slowest quarter since people were physically restricted from moving here. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows a sharp slowdown for population growth estimates in Q1 2025. The slowdown is intentional as the country walks back recent growth that saw non-permanent residents represent 1 in 14 people in the country, double the share just four years prior.
 
It might be safe to say that Alberta's population has passed 5 million now.
If not already, sometime in the next few months. Interestingly the three provinces with the highest growth rates are the affordable western ones and the most unaffordable provinces growth rates are now very low.
 
Wait and see what the new government brings along -- tomorrow should spell a new direction. I think Carney may find an ally in Sheinbaum and the immigration equation may change. We now have a very sharp PM so second-guessing is a fool's errand.
 
Alberta has 55% of Quebec's population but about 45% of the HOC seats allocated to Quebec. Atlantic Canada has 32 seats in the HOC, compared to 37 for Alberta yet Alberta has almost twice as many people. What is up with that? Democracy Canadian style I guess.
 

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