northlands said:
Metro Line extension is going to live or die by what happens provincially/federally and will need the right transit funding friendly governments to be pushed through to pay for the bridge across the Yellowhead. Lets see what things look like in 2030.
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I'll assume they'll need to re-align Yellowhead Trail first before they proceed with the Metro Line LRT Bridge.
I'd wait until 2027 when that section of the freeway conversion is completed.

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If there’s an extension where BRT makes sense for a while still, I think it’s the NW. So much low density, a lot less redevelopment potential vs Valley Line, and super expensive with the bridge. St Albert clearly needs a rail connection one day, but I don’t know if ridership supports it yet.

And at a certain point, do we stop the hub & spoke model and move towards more crosstown routes?

87ave bridge over the river to connect WEM/Uni/Whyte, the Festival Line type route, something along 23rd ave or ellerslie?

A windemere line from south campus is likely cheaper/less disruptive to build and ridership would be strong for a new spoke.

Extensions of valley west to rosenthal/Lewis rec centre/library, and of SE down to ellerslie would be arguably cheaper per new rider too.

I know NW is “owed it”. But I think we gotta maximize ridership per dollar.
 
thommyjo said:
But I think we gotta maximize ridership per dollar.
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I spoke with someone who, until recently, worked for the City of Edmonton in LRT project management. He said that the Castle Downs area was actually modeled to have among the highest LRT ridership in the whole network; something that even surprised him.
 
CplKlinger said:
I spoke with someone who, until recently, worked for the City of Edmonton in LRT project management. He said that the Castle Downs area was actually modeled to have among the highest LRT ridership in the whole network; something that even surprised him.
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That's actually wild. Did they state reasons why? I know that areas has a decent amount of schools and immigrant communities to drive up ridership.
 
CplKlinger said:
I spoke with someone who, until recently, worked for the City of Edmonton in LRT project management. He said that the Castle Downs area was actually modeled to have among the highest LRT ridership in the whole network; something that even surprised him.
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New riders, or high ridership due to existing high bus ridership?

Certainly more “captured” vs “choice” transit users in some of those neighborhoods (just like the west end).
 
thommyjo said:
New riders, or high ridership due to existing high bus ridership?
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I'm not sure how much that matters when looking at ROI for LRT. If the Metro Line extension takes a lot of riders away from buses, then that allows ETS to re-deploy those buses (and the associated "operating hours") to fill some badly needed gaps. Same reason why a route planner with ETS that I know is excited for the Capital Line to extend to Heritage Valley; one train line will allow them to redistribute buses to benefit multiple routes.
 
northlands said:
Metro Line extension is going to live or die by what happens provincially/federally and will need the right transit funding friendly governments to be pushed through to pay for the bridge across the Yellowhead. Lets see what things look like in 2030.
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This is it exactly. We are entering a period of having 3 levels of government that are hesitant to fund big projects, and are lukewarm at best to public transit. It will be the 2030s at the soonest before we have conversations about funding the Metro extension and the cost of the bridge alone will make funding it very contentious. Rutherford was likely being hyperbolic when saying the 2070s, but the 2050s is a very realistic, and possibly the most likely timeline.
 
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Kosy123 said:
That's actually wild. Did they state reasons why? I know that areas has a decent amount of schools and immigrant communities to drive up ridership.
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I think it helps that, based on the road network and geography of the Northwest, it’ll be really easy to set up feeder bus service to the LRT when they extend the Metro Line to Castle Downs.
 
Kosy123 said:
That's actually wild. Did they state reasons why? I know that areas has a decent amount of schools and immigrant communities to drive up ridership.
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I think Yeggator is on to something, but I'll follow up with him.
 
yeggator said:
I think it helps that, based on the road network and geography of the Northwest, it’ll be really easy to set up feeder bus service to the LRT when they extend the Metro Line to Castle Downs.
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CplKlinger said:
I think Yeggator is on to something, but I'll follow up with him.
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Yeah that was my second guess regarding bus feeders. I'm curious to see if it's more possible off peak ridership for this area. Going into Heritage Valley is great, but I feel like that'll just grab more peak commuter ridership than anything else.
 
The_Cat said:
I wonder if Blatchford Station will open once the Yellowhead construction is done. I'm guessing that a transit centre which includes buses to Spruce Grove and St. Albert would be a plus.
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Good ideas. And a bus connection to our rail station?
 
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