[darwink]

Agreed. For you and I we could see that they were doing that by reading between the lines, but I think a lot of people didn't see it coming.

Either way, people will have the chance to vote against it in a referendum, and also have a chance to vote out the UCP. My prediction is people will vote against separation in a referendum, but not vote out the UCP. Then we see what plays out next.

The crazy part of this entire thing which makes it really hard to predict in my opinion: Danielle Smith will no longer be Premier if the separatists lose the referendum. Just untenable in multiple ways.

And the only time she actually stood on principle, by crossing the floor to the PCs, she was punished by the public and left with a greatly diminished income and personal prospects.

So if she is a rational actor, you can easily predict that the next 6 months are going to be absolutely wild.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

The crazy part of this entire thing which makes it really hard to predict in my opinion: Danielle Smith will no longer be Premier if the separatists lose the referendum. Just untenable in multiple ways.

And the only time she actually stood on principle, by crossing the floor to the PCs, she was punished by the public and left with a greatly diminished income and personal prospects.

So if she is a rational actor, you can easily predict that the next 6 months are going to be absolutely wild.

Is her being ousted off the table, I thought they were organizing even now to oust her?

 

[darwink]

Is her being ousted off the table, I thought they were organizing even now to oust her?

She has built herself a nice little box, where the only exit is becoming the largest booster of separation after the separatists win the vote.

 

[trtcttc]

This whole narrative that separatists have enough power to oust the leader because they did so with Kenney is way overblown. He wasn't ousted because of separation, it was over COVID. There's some overlap in the group, but the anti-COVID restriction group is far larger. If the referendum loses, like it's likely to do, she will move on. There will be some grumbling from the separatists about ousting her but it won't go anywhere, just like how they've never even been able to win even rural ridings in Alberta.

 

[FriendlyDrunks]

While I would like the separatism to die down after this October I just can't see it happening. Much like maga, too many of these people have made this their identity.
While it's true that that no separatist has won any riding, my fear is with the veneer of the UCP, voters may find it just palatable enough.

 

[O-tac]

Anyone downplaying the separatists needs to brush up on Brexit, or more alarmingly what happened in the Donbas region of Ukraine. This isn’t just some niche local issue. The Trump administration has been openly threatening us and the likes of Steve Bannon have even stated the end goal isn’t taking all of Canada, it’s just Alberta and our oil.

Today I found a TPUSA propaganda video pop up amongst all the Fight Back AB protest videos from today that was framing us as Christian conservatives that want to join the USA. The building is on fire and anyone saying don’t worry, everything’s fine is just aiding the arsonists.

 

[DougB]

Doomberg's take on Carney, Smith and Alberta from last year has been prescient:

The Fix Is In

Trump, Carney, Smith, and the future of North American energy.

newsletter.doomberg.com

The Fix Is In

Trump, Carney, Smith, and the future of North American energy

April 16, 2025

Some excerpts:

To understand what’s likely to transpire in the months ahead, we first discard the notion that people like Carney actually believe the things they say and write. One does not become head of the central banks of both Canada and England, nor Chair of the Board at Brookfield Asset Management, nor the puppet of choice for the elites that control Canada, by being a maverick thinker with original ideas. It’s more accurate to think of Carney as a boat skipper whose sails always seem perfectly positioned for the wind of the day—a reasonable feat when you’re handed the weather forecast in advance.

Here’s how the play is likely to unfold in the weeks and months ahead: Carney will be elected Prime Minister on April 28 by a comfortable margin; Smith will trigger a constitutional crisis, providing cover for Carney to strike a grand bargain that finally resolves longstanding tensions between the provinces and Ottawa; and large infrastructure permitting reform will fall into place. Protests against these developments will be surprisingly muted, and those who do take to the streets will be largely ignored by the media. The entire effort will be wrapped in a thicket of patriotism, with Trump portrayed as a threat even greater than climate change itself. References to carbon emissions will slowly fade.