[trtcttc]

Agreed. The easiest path for victory in Alberta is a UPC premier that's not an ultra-conservative, but that probably not happen any time soon. I think the NDP base will still vote for Nenshi, and the NDP won't lose any seats outside of Calgary. Who wins or loses what seats in Calgary though.....

The polls show UCP with a decent lead in Calgary, but it will still come down to the seats that the NDP lost but were close on, and whether Nenshi can sway those votes. It's also possibly he could lose some votes in those ridings. Whatever people thought of the NDP, most people either liked Notley, or at least didn't hate her.

These 6 ridings were won by the UCP by 10% or less.
Calgary-Bow
Calgary-North
Calgary-Northwest
Calgary-Fishcreek
Calgary-East
Calgary-Cross
If the NDP had have won those, they would have won the election, so technically it's probably still a closer race than people think.

On the other hand there's Calgary-Acadia, Calgary-Glenmore, decided by less than 50 votes in favour of the NDP. And Edgemont, Foothills, Beddington, Elbow, Klein, and Banff-Kananaskis all decided by less than 5% for the NDP. At current polling, mostly pre-separation, the NDP would lose a lot of Calgary.

 

[O-tac]

What polls are you guys seeing? The most recent Angus Reid poll since the referendum for a separation referendum was announced has NDP tied with UCP and projected to be in majority territory. It’s bound to get even worse for Smith as more damage gets done to the economy and her cynical ploy pisses off separatists and federalists alike.

 

[darwink]

On the other hand there's Calgary-Acadia, Calgary-Glenmore, decided by less than 50 votes in favour of the NDP. And Edgemont, Foothills, Beddington, Elbow, Klein, and Banff-Kananaskis all decided by less than 5% for the NDP. At current polling, mostly pre-separation, the NDP would lose a lot of Calgary.

The polling of Calgary can be really off, depending on which Calgary is being measured.

If you poll the CMA and not the City that is 1,836,012 versus 1,612,834 plus some math,

Just maybe the UCP doing much better, and everyone fretting about that, doesn't really exist.

 

[Surrealplaces]

On the other hand there's Calgary-Acadia, Calgary-Glenmore, decided by less than 50 votes in favour of the NDP. And Edgemont, Foothills, Beddington, Elbow, Klein, and Banff-Kananaskis all decided by less than 5% for the NDP. At current polling, mostly pre-separation, the NDP would lose a lot of Calgary.

True, but as you mentioned, pre-separation polling. If an election were held today, it would be interesting to see the results. It would be closer. The NDP needs to keep bringing up the UCP and tying them to separatism. It's something that is polling much lower than the UCP as a party, and polls even less in Calgary. It could be a difference maker.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Pre-separation and pre-property tax bill. The city definitely let you know why your property taxes went up and it wasn't because of them.

I think it also depends on the type of Nenshi you get. People liked the "I can't believe I have to say this buy stay off the river" Nenshi and not the combative guy that knows better and is smarter than you.

 

[MichaelS]

Nenshi won't be able to win / gain on the property tax hike. The UCP is funding schools with it. Is Nenshi going to come out and say I am going to continue underfunding schools to keep taxes low?

I don't get people's concerns with the separation movement. Simply vote against it in the October referendum, and it ends.