[Mind_the_gap]

For those who aren't aware what's going on in Don Valley North:

Accomplishments:
Bill 163: Food Day Canada in Ontario (August)
Bill 183: Chinese Heritage Month in Ontario (February)
Bill 34: Anti-Asian Racism Education Month (ON/May)
Bill 250: Recovery Month in Ontario (Sepetember)

Vincent Ke has been trying to masquerade as a Conservative, despite running as an Independent.

He uses a blue background for his signs, like Sue Liu (the actual Conservative) for her signs, but without the PC logo. All his signs boldly feature "Re-Elect", despite him not being affiliated with the party. Then he dares to use Doug Ford's image for his flyers. That really sickened me.

Methinks somebody is pissed that Don Valley North has gone to the Conservatives, otherwise this trickery wouldn't be necessary.

Sounds like a stolen election from Liu by splitting the Conservative vote, through confusion...

Update: Vincent Ke did succeed in splitting the Conservative vote:
LIB: Jonathan Tsao 13 375 (43.77%)
PC: Sue Liu 11 484 (37.58%)
IND: Vincent Ke 3 005 (9.83%) ...
Source

Combined Liu and Ke: 14 489 (47.42%)

I was right.

 

[reinventingthewheel]

I was right.

A PC loss does not prove any of your claims.

 

[Northern Light]

While she was lacklustre this go-round, I don't think it's a great idea to switch out leaders as frequently as underwear.

While I agree with the sentiment......

Bonnie has been leader for 14 months.........

I rather hope most people change their undergarments a good deal more often!

 

[Sunnyside]

Hamilton mountain went blue this election. Not sure if this happened before 2022, but the entire City has shifted slightly more blue since.

I’m not sure how to describe my feelings; regardless of the election itself, it must be good to have more MPs for the winning party. Hamilton has long needed more prov/fed support to spark all the latent growth engines, yet the lack of representation since 2018 shows…

4 more years of Ford doesn’t bode very well in this regard, but 2 urban Hamilton MPs (instead of 1) could go a long way. Would love to know from those more knowledgeable whether this can noticeably move the needle.

 

[ImmenselyMental]

The 338Canada website has updated their page to reflect the actual vote and seat shares, while retaining their previous projections leading up to the election:

338Canada Ontario | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com

Compared to the pre-election projections, the PCs notably fared a little lower in both vote and seat share, the Liberals fared higher in vote share, and the NDP fared quite a bit higher in seat share. Notably, the NDP were projected to win about the same number of seats as the Liberals, but ended up winning 13 more seats than the Liberals, something that news outlets attributed to vote efficiency.

Party	338 Projected vote share	Actual vote share	338 Projected seat count	Actual seat count
PC	46%	43%	92	80
NDP	18%	18.6%	16	27
Liberal	28%	29.9%	14	14

 

[chrisw]

Notably, the NDP were projected to win about the same number of seats as the Liberals, but ended up winning 13 more seats than the Liberals, something that news outlets attributed to vote efficiency.

From the Numbers podcast, they described it as unexpected incumbency advantage for the NDP. It's hard to project the NDP doing better in these ridings with their overall vote share falling by so much.

 

[gabe]

My taxi driver from Brampton this morning was happy Doug Ford won. I didn't tip him.

 

[adma]

Hamilton mountain went blue this election. Not sure if this happened before 2022, but the entire City has shifted slightly more blue since.

It last happened in 1995.

 

[afransen]

I am surprised by how low the margins were for some of the PC wins in the 905.

AoD

I am surprised how close my riding was. Just a few percentage points/

 

[afransen]

I don't think the Liberals have any interest in another leadership campaign so soon after the last. I'm sure their thinking was that Crombie would be a breakthrough for them in the 905/GTA suburbs, and although there was a sofetening of some PC support it obviously wasn't enough for the OLP this time around, whereas Erskine-Smith would have been a good leader for urban areas but probably would have had less impact in the 'burbs. Who's to know!

Put another way, Crombie was likely a better leader for OLP v PC ridings, whereas NES would have been a better leader for OLP v NDP ridings, which would have simply meant more vote-splitting. In the end they end up with an improvement of seats but not nearly enough to have much of an impact.

If the OLP had narrowed the gap by a few more percentage points, they would have picked up a good number of seats in the 905. I don't think this result is a disaster for the OLP. They need to spend some time rebuilding the party, but now that they have official party status they should be in a better position to do so.

 

[chrisw]

Plenty of time to have a leadership campaign before the next election.

 

[lenaitch]

If the OLP had narrowed the gap by a few more percentage points, they would have picked up a good number of seats in the 905. I don't think this result is a disaster for the OLP. They need to spend some time rebuilding the party, but now that they have official party status they should be in a better position to do so.

If nothing else, they have official party status again.

 

[nfitz]

If nothing else, they have official party status again.

At the same time though - is Crombie the person who should be leader? I keep saying that I don't think this isn't the job for people in their 70s. It's both high stress, requires one to be at the top of one's game, and someone that old is unlikely to have the ability to inspire political change, especially the younger voters who may be more accessible to change. (well technically she'll only be 69 for the latter - but that's still an issue for the former).

I thought Stiles out-performed Crombie in the debate - and at the start of the election I didn't even recognize their name, or recall their gender!

I thought Bonnie was going to cry at one point ...

 

[jje1000]

One thing that I think may have factored into yesterdays result was the lack of a good option.

I am normally so far left that the NDP brass once called me a Communist. Having said that, I briefly considered voting for Doug Ford as he was the best of the worst options given the tariffs and everything else.

Do I like Doug the Slug, no. Do I think the OLP has their s**t together, also no. The NDP were the only ones even remotely with a plan but they were focusing on low level items which were not all that important to me.

I voted NDP because as much as the NDP did not have a coherent plan other than to say Doug Ford needs to go, we need to make life more affordable and that we need more family doctors they were the best of the worst. They are the only viable alternative to the PC Party.

As much as I hate to say it, Doug Ford is the best option we have right now to stand up to Trump and I firmly believe that is what swayed people this election.

Doug, like it or not, made his best decision hiring Kouvalis and Teneycke, demolishing Crombie early, and choosing an opportune time to pull the plug on his government.

I also don't doubt that Doug harbors no ill-feeling towards Trump, but his big act against Trump probably swayed a good number of people, something that Poilievre was caught flat-footed on.

 

[Richard White]

I also don't doubt that Doug harbors no ill-feeling towards Trump, but his big act against Trump probably swayed a good number of people, something that Poilievre was caught flat-footed on.

I wonder if Doug is considering a run at Federal Politics if Pollievre is a dud.