[AlbertC]

Youth unemployment at recessionary levels, CIBC report finds

A new report says youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient job market.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

TORONTO — A new report says the current youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient labour market.

CIBC analyst Andrew Grantham says the rise in unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 has gone above and beyond what the current economic backdrop would suggest.

He says the youth jobless rate typically rises about four percentage points during periods of weakness, which is higher than the two percentage point gain among prime age workers when the economy pulls back.

But since 2022, the youth unemployment rate has risen more than average, with a 5.5 percentage point gain. That’s at the same time core-aged workers have seen a lower-than-usual rise in joblessness.

Grantham suspects the rise of artificial intelligence is a factor on the demand side, because the jobs typically undertaken by young people are also the ones most at risk from technological changes.

He says the jobless trend is also due in part to an uptick in non-permanent residents from 2022-24 adding to the labour force, but he notes that the higher supply of workers doesn’t account for weakness across the entire market.

“With population growth decelerating rapidly recently, in large part because of a curbing of student numbers, that supply factor is unlikely to explain the renewed weakening in youth employment witnessed this year,” Grantham wrote in his analysis published Tuesday.

Statistics Canada reported youth unemployment in July rose to 14.6 per cent, the highest rate since September 2010.

Grantham said early data points to the role of AI and other labour-substituting technologies that will likely disproportionately affect younger Canadians looking for jobs.

For example, the report suggested the retail sector is partly responsible for high unemployment, as retailers increasingly roll out self-checkouts, while business and support services are increasingly turning to AI.

But the factors contributing to the weakening job market aren’t going to last forever, Grantham said.

“Population growth, particularly among (non-permanent residents), is already slowing, meaning less incremental supply needing to be absorbed into the labour market,” he said.

Other periods of technical advancement that led to upheaval in the job market, including the rise of the personal computer and the internet, had those losses offset in the long term with new jobs in other areas, he said.

The report didn’t indicate how soon the trend might begin to shift.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Youth unemployment at recessionary levels, CIBC report finds

A new report says youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient job market.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Other periods of technical advancement that led to upheaval in the job market, including the rise of the personal computer and the internet, had those losses offset in the long term with new jobs in other areas, he said.

Is that an accurate assumption? We have never had technology with the capacity to replace human intellectual labour across such a broad spectrum of economic activities at such a massive scale at any point in history.

AoD

 

[just east of the creek]

Youth unemployment at recessionary levels, CIBC report finds

A new report says youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient job market.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

TORONTO — A new report says the current youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient labour market.

CIBC analyst Andrew Grantham says the rise in unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 has gone above and beyond what the current economic backdrop would suggest.

He says the youth jobless rate typically rises about four percentage points during periods of weakness, which is higher than the two percentage point gain among prime age workers when the economy pulls back.

But since 2022, the youth unemployment rate has risen more than average, with a 5.5 percentage point gain. That’s at the same time core-aged workers have seen a lower-than-usual rise in joblessness.

Grantham suspects the rise of artificial intelligence is a factor on the demand side, because the jobs typically undertaken by young people are also the ones most at risk from technological changes.

He says the jobless trend is also due in part to an uptick in non-permanent residents from 2022-24 adding to the labour force, but he notes that the higher supply of workers doesn’t account for weakness across the entire market.

“With population growth decelerating rapidly recently, in large part because of a curbing of student numbers, that supply factor is unlikely to explain the renewed weakening in youth employment witnessed this year,” Grantham wrote in his analysis published Tuesday.

Statistics Canada reported youth unemployment in July rose to 14.6 per cent, the highest rate since September 2010.

Grantham said early data points to the role of AI and other labour-substituting technologies that will likely disproportionately affect younger Canadians looking for jobs.

For example, the report suggested the retail sector is partly responsible for high unemployment, as retailers increasingly roll out self-checkouts, while business and support services are increasingly turning to AI.

But the factors contributing to the weakening job market aren’t going to last forever, Grantham said.

“Population growth, particularly among (non-permanent residents), is already slowing, meaning less incremental supply needing to be absorbed into the labour market,” he said.

Other periods of technical advancement that led to upheaval in the job market, including the rise of the personal computer and the internet, had those losses offset in the long term with new jobs in other areas, he said.

The report didn’t indicate how soon the trend might begin to shift.

No mention of labour costs is made in this report. Although the excuse is a weak one, I hear pretty constant negative muttering about the labour costs at the student or minimal wage levels (set to go up again fairly soon I believe).

From our perspective, holding onto labour for agricultural purposes, seasonal. semi-seasonal, untrained to begin with, is a challenge. Physical commitment, outdoor work etc makes MacDonalds (as an example) an appealing choice for many. So a reliance on the Seasonal Agricultural Worker program (the feds) begins and becomes integral to the success of the operation.

There are a certain number of entry level jobs that AI or advancing engineering, will never fully replace, that often have been traditional student type positions, and they appear to be harder to fill on a somewhat longer term basis (say more then 3 weeks). Anecdotally a friend runs a couple of dining establishments in Burlington/Oakville. Untrained Dishwashers starts at the minimum $17.20 for weekly for part time hours, and will pay upwards to $21 or $22 per hour as skills are developed and added integration into the prep area occurs. He cannot fill these positions on a steady basis. These have become transient labour positions, with all the extra admin costs that entails.

There certainly can be an argument about a "living wage" made at these levels, and that is a fair one. I would say that if you identify a 'keeper' and want to hold onto them. the wage escalates quickly within the norms of the industry. But it is it enough? Is it enough when these positions are ostensibly part time or seasonal? Does any difference between the common wage levels paid out, the job description in play, and the current rate of youth unemployment have any correlation?

 

[AlbertC]

No mention of labour costs is made in this report. Although the excuse is a weak one, I hear pretty constant negative muttering about the labour costs at the student or minimal wage levels (set to go up again fairly soon I believe).

From our perspective, holding onto labour for agricultural purposes, seasonal. semi-seasonal, untrained to begin with, is a challenge. Physical commitment, outdoor work etc makes MacDonalds (as an example) an appealing choice for many. So a reliance on the Seasonal Agricultural Worker program (the feds) begins and becomes integral to the success of the operation.

There are a certain number of entry level jobs that AI or advancing engineering, will never fully replace, that often have been traditional student type positions, and they appear to be harder to fill on a somewhat longer term basis (say more then 3 weeks). Anecdotally a friend runs a couple of dining establishments in Burlington/Oakville. Untrained Dishwashers starts at the minimum $17.20 for weekly for part time hours, and will pay upwards to $21 or $22 per hour as skills are developed and added integration into the prep area occurs. He cannot fill these positions on a steady basis. These have become transient labour positions, with all the extra admin costs that entails.

There certainly can be an argument about a "living wage" made at these levels, and that is a fair one. I would say that if you identify a 'keeper' and want to hold onto them. the wage escalates quickly within the norms of the industry. But it is it enough? Is it enough when these positions are ostensibly part time or seasonal? Does any difference between the common wage levels paid out, the job description in play, and the current rate of youth unemployment have any correlation?

Those type of anecdotes are easily countered. For every "I know someone who has issues filling dishwasher positions steadily" example, you'll have many more examples of newly or recently graduated young people who have tremendous barriers with receiving call back for interviews for relevant work in entry level opportunities. Tune into the r/torontojobs (Toronto jobs sub Reddit), Vancouver or most major cities in Canada and you'll see thread upon thread about young people voicing their frustrations of being unable to find job openings even after months or over a year or more. Similar issues affecting people who previously had a job but got laid off and are unemployed or underemployed.

 

[PL1]

Those type of anecdotes are easily countered. For every "I know someone who has issues filling dishwasher positions steadily" example, you'll have many more examples of newly or recently graduated young people who have tremendous barriers with receiving call back for interviews for relevant work in entry level opportunities. Tune into the r/torontojobs (Toronto jobs sub Reddit), Vancouver or most major cities in Canada and you'll see thread upon thread about young people voicing their frustrations of being unable to find job openings even after months or over a year or more. Similar issues affecting people who previously had a job but got laid off and are unemployed or underemployed.

My elder son, just graduated from university, went to *four* interviews for a $45k entry position and didn't get it. He's now doing pt work. My other kid went back to his university town to work at a camp for the summer as it is very challenging to find summer jobs here.

Anyway, more anecdotes... Things will improve eventually

 

[gabe]

Youth unemployment at recessionary levels, CIBC report finds

A new report says youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient job market.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

TORONTO — A new report says the current youth unemployment rate is at levels typically only seen during recessions, even as other age groups face a more resilient labour market.

CIBC analyst Andrew Grantham says the rise in unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 has gone above and beyond what the current economic backdrop would suggest.

He says the youth jobless rate typically rises about four percentage points during periods of weakness, which is higher than the two percentage point gain among prime age workers when the economy pulls back.

But since 2022, the youth unemployment rate has risen more than average, with a 5.5 percentage point gain. That’s at the same time core-aged workers have seen a lower-than-usual rise in joblessness.

Grantham suspects the rise of artificial intelligence is a factor on the demand side, because the jobs typically undertaken by young people are also the ones most at risk from technological changes.

He says the jobless trend is also due in part to an uptick in non-permanent residents from 2022-24 adding to the labour force, but he notes that the higher supply of workers doesn’t account for weakness across the entire market.

“With population growth decelerating rapidly recently, in large part because of a curbing of student numbers, that supply factor is unlikely to explain the renewed weakening in youth employment witnessed this year,” Grantham wrote in his analysis published Tuesday.

Statistics Canada reported youth unemployment in July rose to 14.6 per cent, the highest rate since September 2010.

Grantham said early data points to the role of AI and other labour-substituting technologies that will likely disproportionately affect younger Canadians looking for jobs.

For example, the report suggested the retail sector is partly responsible for high unemployment, as retailers increasingly roll out self-checkouts, while business and support services are increasingly turning to AI.

But the factors contributing to the weakening job market aren’t going to last forever, Grantham said.

“Population growth, particularly among (non-permanent residents), is already slowing, meaning less incremental supply needing to be absorbed into the labour market,” he said.

Other periods of technical advancement that led to upheaval in the job market, including the rise of the personal computer and the internet, had those losses offset in the long term with new jobs in other areas, he said.

The report didn’t indicate how soon the trend might begin to shift.

This map shows where LMIA approvals have been granted in Canada. These approvals allow businesses to hire temporary foreign workers when they claim no qualified Canadians are available. I personally oppose the LMIA program and use this data to avoid supporting businesses that rely on it. Sharing for anyone else who wants to make informed choices.

LMIA Map

Explore the map of LMIAs granted in Canada based on publicly available data from Statistics Canada

lmiamap.org

LMIA outside of agriculture, needs to end!


As Justin Trudeau said in 2015: "the Temporary Foreign Workers program to become a force that drives down wages across the country and takes advantage of vulnerable people from abroad. Fast-forward to 2024: mass immigrates record amount of temporary foreign workers and allows LMIA scams that are driving down wages, preventing Canadians from getting a job and been described as modern slavery.


50,000+ international students didn't show up for class last year. They took jobs from Canadian youth and young adults.

Canadian institutions log almost 50k 'no-shows' in two months

Just under 50,000 instances of international students failing to enrol at their chosen institution were logged in two months of 2024.

thepienews.com