[Epi]

Lets try the question with just Toronto data. If the city has gained 230,000 residents and since 1988 while maintaining a similar level of jobs, is there a limit on growth potential for the TTC?

A huge percentage of that growth has been centered on either the outer suburbs (edge of 416 bordering the 905 where transit service is... crap or where they just drive a few km and work in the 905 office parks) and the downtown core. A lot of downtowners work in downtown and walk to work.

If traffic into the city, in particular the core, has decreased while the city (GTA) has increased in population that signals a problem. Toronto should be able to attract (visiting, shopping, hospitals, etc.) a reasonable protion of the growth in the GTA, and that should be reflected in to a degree in the TTC stats. If it decline in vehicle traffic is accounted for by an increase in GO usage and alternates the question remains. Is the potential for TTC ridership expansion near it maximum?

TTC ridership has been steadily expanding for a decade since disasterous service cuts after the 1989 recession.

How could you say it's reached it's maximum when it's still steady expanding? Your post makes absolutely no sense!

 

[kEiThZ]

I am curious to know what the purpose of this thread is. It's bad enough that you are undertaking misleading comparisons, but I still don't get what you're trying to say. We all know the stats (or can find them) and we all understand the various reasons why we are where we are today with regards to transit issues, gridlock, etc. in the GTA. So what exactly is the purpose of pointing out that ridership took 2 decades to catch up to a previous historical high?

 

[Dan416]

I find it curious that Mississauga and Brampton have seen decreased transit use this year, whereas TTC and GO Transit are going up.

 

[Chuck]

I find it curious that Mississauga and Brampton have seen decreased transit use this year, whereas TTC and GO Transit are going up.

905 ridership is stagnating because transit use has maxed out given the current built form. Those fortunate enough to live in one of the few corridors that can currently support transit already use it thanks to a decade of service upgrades. From now on though, it will be almost impossible to provide reliable service elsewhere thanks to general low density, which means no more growth. 905 ridership can only increase once more 416 style apartment nodes are added to brand new corridors, and that's a tough sell!

TTC ridership is still growing because transit already has excellent penetration, and the more buses that are added, the more choice riders will continue to make the switch. Toronto doesn't really need to change the built form, it just needs more buses.

Soon however, TTC ridership will stagnate too, and I'd give it maybe 5 years tops. The TTC's next hurdle won't be built form, rather it will be capacity issues with the current transit system. No matter how convenient the TTC is, no one will choose it if they have to wait 30 minutes until they can squeeze onto the subway. Once ridership hits about 500 million, it will stagnate, just like it is in the 905 area, until subway capacity is increased. With the exception of the underground Eglinton line, the typical "Transit City" model just won't cut it and will completely overload the subway, ironically turning people away from transit once again.

In short, 905 transit won't grow until it becomes more urban. Soon enough, the TTC won't grow unless it builds more subways. These are both tough challenges, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[lordmandeep]

I think TTC ridership is growing and will grow due to the fact there is a lot more service during off peak hours.

Many times you find yourself standing on a Subway at 9pm or 10 pm in side the core of the city.

Sure its because the subways comes every 4-5 mins but I doubt it came any faster before. I remember it use to be a ghost town during the Night in the 90's.

NYC and perhaps Montreal are the only cities in NA where i have seen such high off peak ridership.

 

[nfitz]

I do have to say I'm quite surprised at how many people (not packed, but people in seats) that a couple of the recently extended buses I use are getting, during the hours they didn't used to run; hard to say if people are just using more convenient routes, or are switching modes. But this might explain why we've seen ridership grow during the recession, as the recession has matched the period with extended service.

 

[unimaginative2]

Ridership could improve even more dramatically if more people were aware of the increased service. The TTC should launch a publicity campaign promoting the fact that all its routes now have full service.

 

[Disparishun]

From now on though, it will be almost impossible to provide reliable service elsewhere thanks to general low density, which means no more growth. 905 ridership can only increase once more 416 style apartment nodes are added to brand new corridors, and that's a tough sell!

I don't know too much about Mississauga or Brampton, but certainly in the corner of the inner 905 where I live (Thornhill-Vaughan), there is significant growth, most of it in buildings and housing that is far higher density than what one might have seen 20 years ago. The same is taking place in adjacent parts of the outer 416, like Willowdale.

Are you sure that there is no transit-amenable residential growth (origins) or trip generators (destinations) sprouting in the inner 905? Again, I don't know Mississauga or Brampton too well, but I would have thought the opposite.

 

[nfitz]

Ridership could improve even more dramatically if more people were aware of the increased service. The TTC should launch a publicity campaign promoting the fact that all its routes now have full service.

Umm ... they did ... there have been ads and posters everywhere for months. And it's been on the front of their webpage for months - still is. They've been pretty hard to miss!

 

[lead82]

if only the ttc offered a discount to ride during off peak hours. It would be easy to do if we had a digital fare system.

 

[Dan416]

I don't know too much about Mississauga or Brampton, but certainly in the corner of the inner 905 where I live (Thornhill-Vaughan), there is significant growth, most of it in buildings and housing that is far higher density than what one might have seen 20 years ago. The same is taking place in adjacent parts of the outer 416, like Willowdale.

Are you sure that there is no transit-amenable residential growth (origins) or trip generators (destinations) sprouting in the inner 905? Again, I don't know Mississauga or Brampton too well, but I would have thought the opposite.

I can't speak for Brampton, but Mississauga has basically no land left to develop (although Mississauga is looking to annex part of Milton, but I'm not sure if that is going to be more residential, I remember they wanted to build a park and/or community centre there). I'd say most of the new construction in Mississauga has been condos, and it's been mostly concentrated in the Mississauga City Centre, which has great public transit penetration. Maybe these new condo dwellers are either walking or driving everywhere?

 

[doady]

905 ridership is stagnating because transit use has maxed out given the current built form. Those fortunate enough to live in one of the few corridors that can currently support transit already use it thanks to a decade of service upgrades. From now on though, it will be almost impossible to provide reliable service elsewhere thanks to general low density, which means no more growth. 905 ridership can only increase once more 416 style apartment nodes are added to brand new corridors, and that's a tough sell!

The density of the 905 is similar to the density of suburban 416, so still plenty of room for growth in the 905.

TTC ridership is still growing

... And you know this how? Please share with us the data for 2009 that you have seen.

 

[Swarley]

The density of the 905 is similar to the density of suburban 416, so still plenty of room for growth in the 905.



... And you know this how? Please share with us the data for 2009 that you have seen.

http://www3.ttc.ca/News/2009/May/TTC_sets_record_ridership_-_470.8_million_rides_in_last_12_m.jsp

471 M from May 2008 to May 2009, and 473 M predicted for full year 2009. That's impressive with all the job losses in the last six months.

 

[Chuck]

The density of the 905 is similar to the density of suburban 416, so still plenty of room for growth in the 905.

Yes and no. Your typical detached housing subdivision has the same density whether it's located in Mississauga, Markham, Leaside, Scarborough, or Newmarket. It is also true that the 905 area has apartment nodes of similar size to the 416 area. The difference is that Toronto has enough apartment clusters at enough random intersections that frequent bus service is possible in every direction on every concession road in the city. Every detached house in Toronto is therefore a 10 minute walk or less to a frequent TTC route.

The apartment clusters in the 905 area tend to only be located along Dundas, Hurontario, Yonge, Bathurst, and Highway 7. Transit ridership is concentrated to these corridors, and drops off exponentially along other corridors. This is because other concession roads in the 905 area, such as Dufferin, 16th, Bayview, and Leslie, almost completely lack apartment nodes except where they intersect the above corridors. Until this changes, most detached houses in the 905 area will remain kilometres away from a frequent bus route.

 

[doady]

http://www3.ttc.ca/News/2009/May/TTC_sets_record_ridership_-_470.8_million_rides_in_last_12_m.jsp

471 M from May 2008 to May 2009

That says absolutely nothing about 2009. The extra ridership could easily come from 2008 only.

Yes and no. Your typical detached housing subdivision has the same density whether it's located in Mississauga, Markham, Leaside, Scarborough, or Newmarket. It is also true that the 905 area has apartment nodes of similar size to the 416 area. The difference is that Toronto has enough apartment clusters at enough random intersections that frequent bus service is possible in every direction on every concession road in the city. Every detached house in Toronto is therefore a 10 minute walk or less to a frequent TTC route.

The apartment clusters in the 905 area tend to only be located along Dundas, Hurontario, Yonge, Bathurst, and Highway 7. Transit ridership is concentrated to these corridors, and drops off exponentially along other corridors. This is because other concession roads in the 905 area, such as Dufferin, 16th, Bayview, and Leslie, almost completely lack apartment nodes except where they intersect the above corridors. Until this changes, most detached houses in the 905 area will remain kilometres away from a frequent bus route.

North York - over 500 high-rises
Scarborough - 255
Mississauga - 220
Etobicoke - 213

Not a night and day difference.

And besides apartment clusters aren't everything. The newest low-rise subdivisions in the 905 are much denser, making up for lack of high-rises.