maestro said:
Not sure how you define downtown Toronto. Perhaps the fully vacant brand new class A tower are not in that jurisdiction. I just don't see that as big of a deal to the overall performance. Class AA space is the most sought after space with always the lowest vacancies of all the classes. I'm still having a hard time that 6% class AA vacancy is not to be considered high.

There's so much instability in Toronto right now with respects to 2024 dismal real estate market. I'm going to speculate that no one is bullish about three years from now.

Bay Street has been more lenient on its workforce cashing out of Toronto and continuing employment than the province/public sector has. There's must some regret in that.

I love UT. I've been a member for 25 years. There's a ton of insider information but, as with everything nowadays, buyer beware. In my experience, those that know everything about something shocking are unlikely to even hint that they know something juicy. This thread is speculating on the linkedin post which is perfectly fine. However, there's also something more definitive being expressed with the linkedin post and that my gut finds concerning.
Click to expand...
For those of us who are not as adept at reading between the lines, what are you inferring? Are you concerned because you think the post is bein disingenuous in some manner?

I agree about the rest, people who are most in the know tend to stay silent, esp. as most are bound to silence, but how else would you read that LinkedIn post? I can think of only the interpretation discussed, or a joke that the market is so bad, that obviously no one would believe a large office dev would start in this climate.
 
Tyrang said:
I agreed that Union Centre and CC3 are prettier, but the empty spot that the Hub was meant to be built on, is definitely the worst. It is a parking lot in prime real estate with a half renovated historical building. CC3, Union Centre, and Union Park all have serviceable existing buildings in place.

With that said, I much rather this space get filled first TBH.
Click to expand...
Yeah fair enough, this one does admittedly feel less shoehorned in
 
maestro said:
I love UT. I've been a member for 25 years. There's a ton of insider information but, as with everything nowadays, buyer beware. In my experience, those that know everything about something shocking are unlikely to even hint that they know something juicy. This thread is speculating on the linkedin post which is perfectly fine. However, there's also something more definitive being expressed with the linkedin post and that my gut finds concerning.
Click to expand...
...or it could that reputable execs are fleeing Xitter for better moderated social alternatives that are BueSky and LinkedIn. That would be good reason why should be paying attention to this post, IMO.
 
maestro said:
... I'm still having a hard time that 6% class AA vacancy is not to be considered high. ...
Click to expand...

It's certainly not low for Toronto, but for companies who remember in 2018 fighting over short-term 20k sqft sublets spread across several buildings, 6% (and dropping) is low enough that those desiring a large contiguous space in the early 2030's are willing to explore new construction.There's a price mismatch though, new construction costs are up a lot and tenants aren't really prepared for that yet, especially on a 50+ floor building. The recent addition of a potential near-term recession due to trade disputes probably doesn't help either.

Price is an issue with downtown residential too. Tens of thousands of buyers want to pay $700/sqft or less, and some are finding that in locations like Hamilton, but developers are looking for $1200/sqft downtown to break even.

Chicago developers are also starting to see some early discussions with tenants for new trophy office as well, but seem a long way from a signed contract.
 
Last edited:
Sat Feb 8
From the PATH work continues.
IMG_7818.jpeg


A cold day but open water in the bay.
IMG_7804.jpeg


From the boardwalk the ice looks very thin and moving with the wind.
IMG_7813.jpeg


From home, some people ice fishing?
IMG_7807.jpeg


One person left, maybe on cross country skis. They had a ladder on the shore to climb up the wall.
Crazy.
IMG_7823.jpeg
 
Take from a guy who worked 4 years in northern Quebec around water, from here that ice looks a bit risky. Hopefully thicker than it looks.
 
AHK said:
Some of the replacement office requirement builds are also proving very problematic:
  • Liberty Market Tower - three years after completion, the commercial space floors are still see-through
  • 400 Dufferin Street - several floors of commercial space still empty years after completion
  • The Taylor at Spadina, again years after completion, the commercial space is still empty, and the developer has submitted and application to the City to redevelop the commercial floors as residential / hotel use
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They are just sitting empty because they are priced too high and there needs to be more density/development around them.

The entire ground floor of Nero sat empty for almost ten years despite being on an extremely trendy strip.

West House hasn’t even opened and it leased its huge space to Equinox.

11 Wellesley is fully leased, two floors of medical offices.
 
Northern Light said:
Will there be some holdover effect of remote and/or hybrid work in some businesses, business units and sectors? Sure. We're not going to get back down to or below, pre-Covid levels.

But I think we're walking back ~80% of it.

So there is demand.
Click to expand...

If the PATH is any indicator, some days it feels like not only are we getting back to pre-COVID, it sometimes feels busier. I'm waiting in longer lines at lunch in the food courts. I'd say Mondays and Fridays are slower than I remember them, but even pre-pandemic, fewer people were around on Fridays.

Back to the building itself, I'm coming here from the failed RSHP St. Lawrence Market North thread and eager to see something proper built in Toronto. As with RSHP, their DNA is in the details. From afar, the HUB isn't much to look at until you start to see the hangers and other iron details through the glass. Still, I'd love to see more of that visible from street level.

2x2.d452ad91.3510_n18060_rshpweb_1.jpg


6x2.ff61d0dc.5420_n1988_print.jpg


The tower is a bit chunkier than I'd like; its wide structure demands more height and fortunately the city has finally lost its aversion to supertalls. When they're ready with a lease, they should try again with 10% additional height. They could do that by moving more of the podium activity to the first floors of the tower and diminishing the podium massing to give off more of the suspension effect.

15059-126788.jpg


Lastly, the concrete super columns are the defining feature of The HUB and in my opinion, they fall short of living up to that title. They're quite boring for RSHP. A condensed version of this colourful X grid in between the super columns would be more distinctive:

3x5.d292afcb.5420_n2715.jpg
 
nightstreak said:
If the PATH is any indicator, some days it feels like not only are we getting back to pre-COVID, it sometimes feels busier. I'm waiting in longer lines at lunch in the food courts. I'd say Mondays and Fridays are slower than I remember them, but even pre-pandemic, fewer people were around on Fridays.

Back to the building itself, I'm coming here from the failed RSHP St. Lawrence Market North thread and eager to see something proper built in Toronto. As with RSHP, their DNA is in the details. From afar, the HUB isn't much to look at until you start to see the hangers and other iron details through the glass. Still, I'd love to see more of that visible from street level.

2x2.d452ad91.3510_n18060_rshpweb_1.jpg


6x2.ff61d0dc.5420_n1988_print.jpg


The tower is a bit chunkier than I'd like; its wide structure demands more height and fortunately the city has finally lost its aversion to supertalls. When they're ready with a lease, they should try again with 10% additional height. They could do that by moving more of the podium activity to the first floors of the tower and diminishing the podium massing to give off more of the suspension effect.

15059-126788.jpg


Lastly, the concrete super columns are the defining feature of The HUB and in my opinion, they fall short of living up to that title. They're quite boring for RSHP. A condensed version of this colourful X grid in between the super columns would be more distinctive:

3x5.d292afcb.5420_n2715.jpg
Click to expand...

This is an old complaint unfortunately - the original iterations actually see colour on the outside of the core - conservative Toronto reduced it to mere smidges inside; let's not even get to the complete lack of colour on the structural elements that is trademark RSH.

AoD
 
What would The City do if the developer snuck back in all those colours nearer the completion of the tower? And presuming this thing will ever get built...
 
UtakataNoAnnex said:
What would The City do if the developer snuck back in all those colours nearer the completion of the tower? And presuming this thing will ever get built...
Click to expand...

The city didn't have anything to do with them removing the colours as far as I'm aware?
 
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