[Northern Light]

You say flat out wrong with an assessment of large companies and governments pushing people back to the office. Large companies make up the majority of tenanted space however,

Exactly.

they represent a little more than a handful of all companies in Canada.

Irrelevant. What small businesses occupying owned space, and/or leased space in B, and C class buildings do has no bearing on the class A downtown office market.

There are large blocks of continuous space in Toronto. There are entire never occupied buildings available

In class A space, in downtown Toronto? Where the vacancy rate in said category is sub 6%?

This post on linkedin is not any different than any commercial project that stats we can deliver at x time if you lease with us.

With great respect, some of us are privy to more than what's posted on Linked In.

I do not know if any deal has been inked.........though admittedly if I did I wouldn't likely be leaking it here.

But I do know the interest is real......Oxford are not the only ones reviving mothballed proposals.......again, interest doesn't equal the deal happening....but the market is in play.

 

[goodcitywhenfinished]

One day, maybe, but there is certainly not enough market interest (that I've heard about) to support all of those.

Even 2/4 is ambitious is the near term........but there are more players looking than current, ideal, space..........soooo we'll see.

So your sense is at least one large tower could go forward in the next 5 years?

 

[travis3000]

Reading the replies and responses from the author on LinkedIn, it's quite clear that nothing has been signed here. The author flat out says he's "working hard to make it happen" when asked when construction will start. At best he's talking with some companies and projecting confidence like any good vice President of a company should.

This thing may be no sooner to break ground than it was 5 years ago. Or something might be awfully close. Still nothing concrete though.

 

[Northern Light]

So your sense is at least one large tower could go forward in the next 5 years?

Yes.

I mean, nothing is certain, but I would describe that as much more likely than not, based on what I'm hearing/seeing.

 

[Northern Light]

Reading the replies and responses from the author on LinkedIn, it's quite clear that nothing has been signed here. The author flat out says he's "working hard to make it happen" when asked when construction will start. At best he's talking with some companies and projecting confidence like any good vice President of a company should.

This thing may be no sooner to break ground than it was 5 years ago. Or something might be awfully close. Still nothing concrete though.

Good for you (sincerely) for going back and checking for updates.

***

Hype is definitely part of what's going on here.........

But there is also a direct connection to building......a tentative understanding with a tenant large enough to be of interest isn't the same as enough prospective tenancy to build.

You have to get that critical mass in order to start actually signing.

 

[Undead]

Full time RTO, even 4/5 days a week, is idiotic.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

^So the person reeling in the line is shouting they might have caught a big one, but in the end it could be a family sized sturgeon, an ole tire or a big nothing burger...

...then I won't be holding my breath here unless it's the former.

 

[Northern Light]

Full time RTO, even 4/5 days a week, is idiotic.

Now now, don't be such a tease.

Tell us what your side hustle on Mondays and Fridays is...

 

[maestro]

Exactly.



Irrelevant. What small businesses occupying owned space, and/or leased space in B, and C class buildings do has no bearing on the class A downtown office market.



In class A space, in downtown Toronto? Where the vacancy rate in said category is sub 6%?



With great respect, some of us are privy to more than what's posted on Linked In.

I do not know if any deal has been inked.........though admittedly if I did I wouldn't likely be leaking it here.

But I do know the interest is real......Oxford are not the only ones reviving mothballed proposals.......again, interest doesn't equal the deal happening....but the market is in play.

It's nonsense that tenants requiring a full floor or less are reserved to owner occupied space or class B & C. There are brand new buildings that are empty with continuous blocks up to 4 to 500,000 square feet discussed on Urbantoronto. 6% vacancy in class AA space is, historically, incredibly high. Just ask those privy to more information. The 12% vacancy in class A space firmly places the market in tenant's hand. We can therefore speculate this interest is looking for a better deal which doesn't bode well for new construction at peak prices. Maybe in 2028 with the office market continuing to recover quarter after quarter. I wouldn't take this post as an indication that this tower will be ready for occupancy in 5 years. Go ahead if you want to have fun it. I'll wait until something concrete happens.

 

[Tyrang]

It's nonsense that tenants requiring a full floor or less are reserved to owner occupied space or class B & C. There are brand new buildings that are empty with continuous blocks up to 4 to 500,000 square feet discussed on Urbantoronto. 6% vacancy in class AA space is, historically, incredibly high. Just ask those privy to more information. The 12% vacancy in class A space firmly places the market in tenant's hand. We can therefore speculate this interest is looking for a better deal which doesn't bode well for new construction at peak prices. Maybe in 2028 with the office market continuing to recover quarter after quarter. I wouldn't take this post as an indication that this tower will be ready for occupancy in 5 years. Go ahead if you want to have fun it. I'll wait until something concrete happens.

I felt like... no one is particular saying the market is hot and ready for a tower. @Northern Light is just saying there are more interest than the last little while, which I suspect is true?

Maybe some of us are slightly hopeful and optimistic, and some are slightly more pessimistic... but kinda feels like we are aggressively agreeing with each other. :/

 

[Northern Light]

There are brand new buildings that are empty with continuous blocks up to 4 to 500,000 square feet discussed on Urbantoronto.

In DT Toronto, I'm aware of fewer than 10 AA+ buildings with more than 50,000ft2 of contiguous office space available.

6% vacancy in class AA space is, historically, incredibly high.

Recently yes.

Just ask those privy to more information.

Excuse me. LOL Right I'm just some random dude who knows nothing about the Toronto development scene, or commercial leasing.......

The 12% vacancy in class A space firmly places thmarket in tenant's hand.

In theory, I agree, now maybe we should see what asking rents actually are, and what the trendline is?

From Q4, 2024:

Source: https://cw-gbl-gws-prod.azureedge.n...2024.pdf?rev=668a02d53b074f848ae78e72c56828ce

Aside from showing rents are stable to marginally higher, the same report reveals that sublet vacancies are down sharply, and that the downtown market saw a significant spike in Q4 leasing activity and the trends appear favourable, excepting the current quarter when a couple of large vacancies will enter the pool due to relos.

Let's look at net absorption from another source:

Source as embedded.

***

This is not to suggest the market is red hot; it's not. I'm not one for speaking immoderately or being a booster, and I'm the first to chide the overly excited. But I likewise have little time for 'The Sky is Falling' as a perpetual mantra.

Is it not possible to simply have a thoughtful discussion, that is evidence based, rather than filled with extreme rhetoric?

We can therefore speculate this interest is looking for a better deal which doesn't bode well for new construction at peak prices. Maybe in 2028 with the office market continuing to recover quarter after quarter. I wouldn't take this post as an indication that this tower will be ready for occupancy in 5 years. Go ahead if you want to have fun it. I'll wait until something concrete happens.

UT is where we meet to share information, much of it not yet public. ......some measure of speculation (not fantasy) is part of the deal.

You needn't partake though.

***

Office planning for large organizations has a forward planning cycle greater than 3 years. But again, I'm not saying a deal will get done here, Only that there are major players kicking tires.

 

[AHK]

I believe the gross numbers for currently available office space in Toronto may be somewhat misleading. There are several large newer spaces which seem to be more problematic than others - basically all due to their less than optimal locations. Specifically:

• Portland Commons - 560,000 square feet, still unleased (unless something has happened recently that am not aware of). The Front and Portland site should have been developed as residential, not commercial, but residential would not have maximized the development density possible for the location.
• Hines T3 Queens Quay - too far away from effective transit
• Hines T3 Sterling Road - again too far away from effective transit

These sites have been, and I believe will continue to be very slow to lease up - they will be occupied as last resort office space.

Some of the replacement office requirement builds are also proving very problematic:

• Liberty Market Tower - three years after completion, the commercial space floors are still see-through
• 400 Dufferin Street - several floors of commercial space still empty years after completion
• The Taylor at Spadina, again years after completion, the commercial space is still empty, and the developer has submitted and application to the City to redevelop the commercial floors as residential / hotel use

If these, and any other comparably problematic sites, are taken out of consideration from the overall amount of actually desirable space that is available, the percentages currently available in the Downtown Toronto areas may look quite different.

Given these considerations, using the gross numbers - square footage and percentages - of available office space in the Downtown Toronto market may be misleading when considering the potential for new, well located (i.e. close to Union Station / GO Train and TTC service) builds.

 

[ctf5650]

I wish the building most likely to break ground was something pretty like CC3 or Union Centre instead of the ugliest one of the four....

 

[maestro]

Not sure how you define downtown Toronto. Perhaps the fully vacant brand new class A tower are not in that jurisdiction. I just don't see that as big of a deal to the overall performance. Class AA space is the most sought after space with always the lowest vacancies of all the classes. I'm still having a hard time that 6% class AA vacancy is not to be considered high.

There's so much instability in Toronto right now with respects to 2024 dismal real estate market. I'm going to speculate that no one is bullish about three years from now.

Bay Street has been more lenient on its workforce cashing out of Toronto and continuing employment than the province/public sector has. There's must some regret in that.

I love UT. I've been a member for 25 years. There's a ton of insider information but, as with everything nowadays, buyer beware. In my experience, those that know everything about something shocking are unlikely to even hint that they know something juicy. This thread is speculating on the linkedin post which is perfectly fine. However, there's also something more definitive being expressed with the linkedin post and that my gut finds concerning.

 

[Tyrang]

I wish the building most likely to break ground was something pretty like CC3 or Union Centre instead of the ugliest one of the four....

I agreed that Union Centre and CC3 are prettier, but the empty spot that the Hub was meant to be built on, is definitely the worst. It is a parking lot in prime real estate with a half renovated historical building. CC3, Union Centre, and Union Park all have serviceable existing buildings in place.

With that said, I much rather this space get filled first TBH.