The problem is that the NDP have no chance of forming a government. They will not call an election that the PCs will win, as that would just make the political situation for the NDP even worse. The NDP are the most powerful they have been since Rae, and I don't think they will be willingly giving up that so that an even more conservative government can form office. An election will only be called in two scenarios, one is if it looks as though the NDP have a solid chance of forming government, even with the PCs being the opposition, or it looks as though the Liberals have a solid chance of staying in power but with a larger amount of NDP seats.
Great analysis.
I'll add something to it. What if the NDP were trying to replicate what Mulcair's been doing at the federal level? Could they choose to go closer to the center-left and use the Liberal scandals to crush them. Can she get the PC vote? No
Her only chance is to go after the Liberal voters who are extremely dissatisfy with the Liberals and McGuinty's legacy. By advertising yourself as "more trustworthy and more competent Liberalites" they might swing those votes their way.
Winning the title of "Official Opposition" by crushing the Liberals is even better than what they are now. They would have 4 years to make the case that they can govern the whole province better than the PC.
Sure, having the balance of power sounds good, but if it was that good, minority government would last longer. What usually happens is the one who holds the "balance of power" who risks falling into irrelevancy.
The bottom line is, voters don't care who holds the balance of power otherwise why has her support kept dropping? Supporting the same party that has brought us all those scandals will not do her any favors in the long run. She's just helping Wynne consolidating her power and proving to the population that she's a better Premier than she'll ever be. Reminds me of : "She's just that other girl I used to date once but can't remember her name now because I've moved on to better things."
Horwath need to take advantage of Wynne's connection to McGuinty and to not let her consolidate her power and build a credibility. She knows that.
The Transit taxes are needed, she knows it all too well. Why would you put yourself in the position of voting them in or cancelling them when you can just let your enemy do it for you, then blame them during the campaign.
Once you get into power, you can say something like " The Liberals left Ontario in a worse financial mess then expected and although we strongly disagree with those taxes, we have no choice but to let them be". Then you give yourself 4 years for Ontarians to get use to them and forget how much of a pain they are.
By then, some of the projects will be delivered during your mandate....taking credit for what your predecessor started...
You can subsidize transit which might lower the fares of Transit Organization...which you would take credit for.
Which makes the Transit taxes and your decision to keep them more acceptable.
I would not be surprised if the PC did the same but expect
-Highways and some subway constructions and no LRT
-Might lower taxes with the money of cancelled Transit projects
