denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
City only exist at the will of the province. The province to can creat and dissolve cities. Once Ford loses sheppard he's lost everything else.
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ssiguy2
Senior Member
I tend to disagree with a lot of you on the Sheppard Line.
Come hell or high water, ford will make sure that Eglinton comes in under budget {which in Toronto would bee a novelty} whether that be by getting the feds involved, creating some form of PPP, elevating part of the corridor on Eglinton itself, fewer stations etc. That will leave him the extra $650 million McGuinty has stated he could have for Sheppard and with the already commited $350 million from the feds for the Sheppard line, that leaves him $1.1 billion. Even if he only gets the private sector to put in 10% that means he could atleast build the Spadina to Yonge section of the line.
The idea of getting the private sector to chip in $2 billion is impossible but I think that section is very realistic and will go ahead.
Come hell or high water, ford will make sure that Eglinton comes in under budget {which in Toronto would bee a novelty} whether that be by getting the feds involved, creating some form of PPP, elevating part of the corridor on Eglinton itself, fewer stations etc. That will leave him the extra $650 million McGuinty has stated he could have for Sheppard and with the already commited $350 million from the feds for the Sheppard line, that leaves him $1.1 billion. Even if he only gets the private sector to put in 10% that means he could atleast build the Spadina to Yonge section of the line.
The idea of getting the private sector to chip in $2 billion is impossible but I think that section is very realistic and will go ahead.
The Sheppard line as Ford has proposed it has so many stumbling blocks in front of it, even getting it to tender would be a miracle. Let's list them off (I'm trying my best to keep them in order):
1) Ford needs approval from Council to even start an actual design study on the line (or to update the existing study).
2) If that comes, he would then need to draft a business case as to how the private sector funding is going to come about.
3) He will then need to go back to council to get approval for the EA.
4) Once the EA is complete, he will need to sit and wait until the budget for the Eglinton line comes in, something that likely won't happen until well after his 1st term is expired. Without that, he doesn't even know how much government money he has to work with.
5) He will then likely need to come up with additional funding sources, because the leftovers from Eglinton and the small amount that the private sector is likely to throw in won't even come close to covering the project cost.
Aaaand 6) Steps 3-5 are predicated on the assumption that Ford wins a 2nd term.
So as you can see, in order to get this project to even the pre-construction phase, he will need to get approval from Council at least twice, AND win a 2nd term. Neither of which at this point are looking likely.
Conclusion: Ain't gonna happen.
nfitz
Superstar
How would he do that? We're looking at a 2020 completion date, 2022 according to some inside TTC. Ford's 3rd term in office wouldn't start until 2018.
The last subway construction was Sheppard, and it wasn't over budget. I don't recall the previous extension being over budget either.
superman
Active Member
My prediction is that the pro TC crowd will get Eglinton east in buried and in the middle of the street again.... But the cost savings will go to cutting the deficit and not building finch or sheppard.
Dan416
Senior Member
That's a worst case scenario, and I don't see it happening.
As for Sheppard, I'm just glad the SELRT is dead.
ssiguy2
Senior Member
I think he could get McGuinty to fork over some of the Eglinton earleir if he does it as a PPP.
First, he would probably be able to get the feds on board as there is a special $1.2 billion yearly budget for infrastructure available for PPP projects.
Second, if a PPP for Eglinton he would be able to get a firm contract signed for X amount that would leave him his $650 million as in PPP on the Vancouver Canada Line, any and all cost overruns were to be 100% paid for by the private partner. This is why Vancouver's PPP are a success.......because the price is guaranteed and hence come out ussually under budget and always on time.
First, he would probably be able to get the feds on board as there is a special $1.2 billion yearly budget for infrastructure available for PPP projects.
Second, if a PPP for Eglinton he would be able to get a firm contract signed for X amount that would leave him his $650 million as in PPP on the Vancouver Canada Line, any and all cost overruns were to be 100% paid for by the private partner. This is why Vancouver's PPP are a success.......because the price is guaranteed and hence come out ussually under budget and always on time.
Nick.
Banned
alrighty then
leopetr
Active Member
IMHO:
- Worst worst scenario is everything cancelled and SRT permanently replaced with buses.
- Worst case scenario is Eglinton cancelled and SRT upgraded to LRT.
- A bad scenario is Eglinton East cancelled, with Eglinton central built and SRT upgraded with no link between them,
- A not very good scenario is Eglinton East downgraded to surface median.
- A good scenario is everything built according to current plan.
The province is promising lots of cuts for this spring. IMHO, the less noise the "let's change all the plans again" advocates make, the less of a target transit will be.
Justin10000
Banned
The best scenario is going back to the original plan.
nfitz
Superstar
Which original plan? The Network 2011 BRT from Eglinton West to Renforth? The later Peterson proposed LRT to Black Creek Drive from Eglinton West? The started but cancelled 5-station stubway from Eglinton West to York Centre? There' must have been a half-dozen plans before Crosstown.
Justin10000
Banned
Should have been more clear.
Best case scenario, go back to the Transit City Plan that was funded before Ford took office.
Best case scenario, go back to the Transit City Plan that was funded before Ford took office.
Monarch Butterfly
Superstar
The current plan is fine with me, as long as they figure out another way besides tunnelling to get a grade-separated Eglinton East. If they figure that out, I'd be more than happy to see that plan go ahead.
sixrings
Senior Member
id be happy with the new plan plus on the side of the road or the trench from jane to the airport.