[kEiThZ]

To be clear, I am not saying that the use of oil is going away anytime soon. But the electrification of transport will dramatically change the demand for oil. That in turn will massively change both economics and geopolitics.

When Africans are adopting electric Tuk Tuks, we're in another era. And far too many people are relying on past performance to predict linear adoption. Yet, never in history, has anything ever been adopted linearly.

 

[rbt]

When Africans are adopting electric Tuk Tuks, we're in another era. And far too many people are relying on past performance to predict linear adoption. Yet, never in history, has anything ever been adopted linearly.

Interestingly, I was reading about Cuba's rapid adoption of Chinese electric scooters the other day replacing vehicle ownership due to much much lower operating costs. The 60's American feel to their roadways, caused by sudden USA export controls, is apparently disappearing.

Cuba is clearly a special case but electric Tuk Tuks seems likely in countries without heavy retail gas price subsidies.

 

[kEiThZ]

Most of the world imports oil. And a lot of the places that import oil are poor. Burning their meager wealth for mobility is a bad deal. And unlike us they don't need 3000 lb SUVs and pickups to get around, so using batteries is actually much easier. Paradoxically, electrification might go much faster in the developing world because a lot of it will be two and three wheelers going electric.

 

[lenaitch]

Most of the world imports oil. And a lot of the places that import oil are poor. Burning their meager wealth for mobility is a bad deal. And unlike us they don't need 3000 lb SUVs and pickups to get around, so using batteries is actually much easier. Paradoxically, electrification might go much faster in the developing world because a lot of it will be two and three wheelers going electric.

Or we await the trend of EV's being stolen, stuffed in shipping containers bound for overseas.

 

[rdaner]

In a parallel development drone use is going to the next level in 2025 as new regulations to allow much greater range come into effect.

 

[ssiguy2]

When it comes to "disruption of transport, I think one thing the TTC, and all transit agencies in the country for that matter, are going to have to deal with is a sharp decline in ridership over the next 2 to 3 years and hence a significant drop in revenue.

Students & TFWs make up a disproportionate amount of ridership generally being lower income and our numbers are about to take an immediate plunge. The new immigration targets are going to result in a negative growth rate for the next 2 years almost exclusively due to the above demographic group. PP has stated he wants to decline those numbers even more and I'm quite sure he will. Under Trudeau, if these people do not leave voluntarily then he would do little more than wag his figure at them and say "shame on you". PP will not be near as diplomatic and these foreigners know it.

All of our cities are about to be in population decline and especially those with a disproportionate number of foreign students {here's looking at you Kitchener} and the demographic that are leaving are the one's transit agencies depend upon the most.

 

[TTCdinosaur]

When it comes to "disruption of transport, I think one thing the TTC, and all transit agencies in the country for that matter, are going to have to deal with is a sharp decline in ridership over the next 2 to 3 years and hence a significant drop in revenue.

Students & TFWs make up a disproportionate amount of ridership generally being lower income and our numbers are about to take an immediate plunge. The new immigration targets are going to result in a negative growth rate for the next 2 years almost exclusively due to the above demographic group. PP has stated he wants to decline those numbers even more and I'm quite sure he will. Under Trudeau, if these people do not leave voluntarily then he would do little more than wag his figure at them and say "shame on you". PP will not be near as diplomatic and these foreigners know it.

All of our cities are about to be in population decline and especially those with a disproportionate number of foreign students {here's looking at you Kitchener} and the demographic that are leaving are the one's transit agencies depend upon the most.

Personally, I've gone from daily using it to maybe twice a week - otherwise, I take Ubers. Same with my professional friends. Time to take the TTC out back.

 

[drum118]

When it comes to "disruption of transport, I think one thing the TTC, and all transit agencies in the country for that matter, are going to have to deal with is a sharp decline in ridership over the next 2 to 3 years and hence a significant drop in revenue.

Students & TFWs make up a disproportionate amount of ridership generally being lower income and our numbers are about to take an immediate plunge. The new immigration targets are going to result in a negative growth rate for the next 2 years almost exclusively due to the above demographic group. PP has stated he wants to decline those numbers even more and I'm quite sure he will. Under Trudeau, if these people do not leave voluntarily then he would do little more than wag his figure at them and say "shame on you". PP will not be near as diplomatic and these foreigners know it.

All of our cities are about to be in population decline and especially those with a disproportionate number of foreign students {here's looking at you Kitchener} and the demographic that are leaving are the one's transit agencies depend upon the most.

A lot of students currently ride free today and will have the same effect on revenue down the road like today. As of July 1st this year, Mississauga seniors will ride free down from the current $1 per 2 hour fare. There are a number of systems offering free ride to senior's including a number of states in the US.

What transit systems need to worry about is the decline of revenue for gas tax as more EV's hit the road considering some places want to eliminate the use of gas for vehicle's by 2050

 

[nfitz]

A lot of students currently ride free today and will have the same effect on revenue down the road like today

Only those under 13 are free. And they seldom ride more than a few stops, or at the peak-point.

I'd guess a handful of routes, mostly near diploma mills would be impacted by the new foreign student rules - but I doubt we'll be able to parse it out the data unless instutions fold.

 

[drum118]

Only those under 13 are free. And they seldom ride more than a few stops, or at the peak-point.

I'd guess a handful of routes, mostly near diploma mills would be impacted by the new foreign student rules - but I doubt we'll be able to parse it out the data unless instutions fold.

Various students going to college or university get various types of discount to use transit threw various programs run by them today.

With the decline of foreign students coming down the road, it will help various transit systems that currently service them today that they will have to be cut service to match the new ridership numbers. This will offer saving to those transit systems as well providing more service to other area that may need it or less service/equipment system wide.

 

[nfitz]

With the decline of foreign students coming down the road, it will help various transit systems that currently service them today that they will have to be cut service to match the new ridership numbers. This will offer saving to those transit systems as well providing more service to other area that may need it or less service/equipment system wide.

If reduced demand saves transit agencies money, then the TTC must really be rolling in dough, with the reduced post-Covid ridership drop.

 

[ssiguy2]

While I appreciate what you are saying about many students getting free transit already, that doesn't take into account the hundreds of thousands of TFW's in Ontario alone. These people are VERY transit dependent as extremely few have cars. If even a 100,000 leave GTAH in the next year, that's a big blow to ridership and revenue. This combined with a slowing economy is going to hurt many transit systems big time. A falling population and slowing economy is always bad news for transit agencies but when it particularly effects the most transit sensitive demographic, the hit is even harder.

The benefits of a shrinking population are numerous and particularly when it comes to housing availability/affordability, healthcare, and key social services but transit is one of the few negatives that come with it.

 

[nfitz]

The benefits of a shrinking population are numerous and particularly when it comes to housing availability/affordability, healthcare, and key social services but transit is one of the few negatives that come with it.

Numerous? A shrinking population leads to recession and financial losses. If all these million dollar houses reduce to a more reasonable $600,000, then many people will be in dire financial straits.

But yeah, it would ease the housing shortage. Like in Chicago.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Thoughts?

Opinion: ‘Vasa syndrome’ is killing Ontario’s auto sector

The Vasa was an over-designed 17th-century Swedish warship that sank on launch. Politically-engineered EV cars risk being today's equivalent

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[evandyk]

It's a puff piece advertising his company's technology.