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The other note I would add is that the Trump Government will begin to push a 3% minimum on defence spending. They will threaten their participation in NATO unless this happens.

In theory I have nothing against this. We cheerfully give billions and billions away in other ‘social’ causes, the frontlines of any type of conflict grow closer each month, and we have played a fantasy game, regardless of government, since the days of Trudeau Mark 1.
 
just east of the creek said:
The other note I would add is that the Trump Government will begin to push a 3% minimum on defence spending. They will threaten their participation in NATO unless this happens.
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Canada’s hasn’t been meaningfully over 2% of GDP since the 1960s. Let’s get to 2% first.
MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS.png
 
Admiral Beez said:
Canada’s hasn’t been meaningfully over 2% of GDP since the 1960s. Let’s get to 2% first.
MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS.png
Click to expand...
Thank you for the graph. And your comments. Respectfully I would suggest that we not fixate on 2% as ‘the’ number. Anything between 3 and 4% would allow for a smallish but well equipped and supported (reserves and para-military coast guard) force that would allow the country to begin to project a more meaningful impact on the world stage.
 
3% is never happening. I say this as a serving member. We don't have the capacity to absorb that kind of spending. And the taxes and/or cuts required would kill any government politically. For reference, 3% of GDP would be more than OAS.
 
just east of the creek said:
I would suggest that we not fixate on 2% as ‘the’ number.
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We "fixate" on 2% because that's our formal commitment, first made by PM Harper at the 2014 NATO Summit in Wales, and repeated by PM Trudeau at the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid.

Harper was particularly ridiculous as he had just presented a budget with the lowest defence spending (0.98% of gdp) since before ww2. To his credit, since taking power in 2015, PM Trudeau has increased defence spending by almost 60%, even when adjusted for inflation (2014: $19b vs. 2024: $30b, approx.). Poilievre was a junior cabinet minister under Harper, and the old man still holds sway; so we'll see what our defence spending looks like under PM Poilievre.

If with nudges from the White House we can get to 2% under Trudeau or Poilievre by 2028-30 the CAF will have come a long way towards your proposed well equipped, compact and capable force. We forget how small the CAF are today: if we take all full time and reserve personnel, plus the Canadian Rangers we get to about 100,000 people. For perspective, here's 100k+ people at Bryant-Denny Stadium at the University of Alabama. Our entire Canadian Armed Forces would sit down and still leave space for more.

5184.jpg
 
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Admiral Beez said:
We forget how small the CAF are today: if we take all full time and reserve personnel, plus the Canadian Rangers we get to about 100,000 people. For perspective, here's 100k+ people at Bryant-Denny Stadium at the University of Alabama. Our entire Canadian Armed Forces would sit down and still leave space for more.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't get too hung up on this. Most countries with volunteer militaries aren't putting millions in uniform.
 
Looks like we’re going to hit the 2% NATO target by March 2025. And much less expenditures in the USA, which many Canadians will agree with.

just east of the creek said:
The other note I would add is that the Trump Government will begin to push a 3% minimum on defence spending. They will threaten their participation in NATO unless this happens.
Click to expand...
Forget Trump’s 3%. I also expect PM Carney to sign onto achieving the coming new 5% NATO target.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like we’re going to hit the 2% NATO target by March 2025. And much less expenditures in the USA, which many Canadians will agree with.


Forget Trump’s 3%. I also expect PM Carney to sign onto achieving the coming new 5% NATO target.
Click to expand...
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like we’re going to hit the 2% NATO target by March 2025. And much less expenditures in the USA, which many Canadians will agree with.


Forget Trump’s 3%. I also expect PM Carney to sign onto achieving the coming new 5% NATO target.
Click to expand...
Admiral Beez said:
Looks like we’re going to hit the 2% NATO target by March 2025. And much less expenditures in the USA, which many Canadians will agree with.


Forget Trump’s 3%. I also expect PM Carney to sign onto achieving the coming new 5% NATO target.
Click to expand...

Being discussed here:

Canada and the World

https://globalnews.ca/video/11114051/if-the-u-s-no-longer-wants-to-lead-canada-will-carney-proposes-global-free-trade-coalition/ Strong words from Prime Minister Carney today. What does Canada leading the world look like? The below piece has some ideas...
urbantoronto.ca urbantoronto.ca

Also, I don't think you will see signing on to 5%.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Forget Trump’s 3%. I also expect PM Carney to sign onto achieving the coming new 5% NATO target
Click to expand...
I don't think we could efficiently deploy 5% of GDP in the near term.

It would be bonkers for NATO to spend 5% of GDP on defense on a regular basis. The alliance would be spending what... 80 or 90% of global defense spending? Canada is perhaps in greater need than many for a surge in investment as we are severely behind on replacement programs across the board.
 
afransen said:
I don't think we could efficiently deploy 5% of GDP in the near term.

It would be bonkers for NATO to spend 5% of GDP on defense on a regular basis. The alliance would be spending what... 80 or 90% of global defense spending? Canada is perhaps in greater need than many for a surge in investment as we are severely behind on replacement programs across the board.
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Agreed. The 5% target will become Canada’s longer term goal.
 
afransen said:
Why do we need to spend 5% as a new run rate? Are we in world war three?
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Wait on that. Nothing is out of the realm of possibility with the little KGB thug in charge. And has been continually demonstrated, he only seems to understand power. Trump looks like a fool, others less so of they push back. Canada will need to be able to conduct complex operations in the Article as both Russia and China begin to push. Canada will need to be able to conduct complex operations in such NATO countries as Latvia. And complex means power projection at a level far above our current capabilities. 2% satisfies the near term political requirement. 5% will address the building and equipping of the forces from recruitment, retention, housing, services and the military equipment, training and maintenance, and then the operations required. 5% or more may also include funding the Ukraine in their current defence against the thug.
 
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