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cdl42
Guest
Hence that all-important word in my post... was.
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spmarshall
Guest
And another riding which fell to the Conservatives as Martin warned everyone to abandon the NDP to ensure the Liberals will be able to prevail.
Smooth move - there were a few seats where the Conservatives nudged out the NDP (like Oshawa and in BC). Had the NDP won two more seats, things would be a little better for Martin right now, as the Dippers are the only opposition party not thrilled about the idea of pulling the plug right now. .
Smooth move - there were a few seats where the Conservatives nudged out the NDP (like Oshawa and in BC). Had the NDP won two more seats, things would be a little better for Martin right now, as the Dippers are the only opposition party not thrilled about the idea of pulling the plug right now. .
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adma
Guest
And in Saskatchewan, another factor which nobody except the Grits themselves really anticipated was the coattails of Ralph Goodale--and the net effect was Grits and Dippers choking each other off at the pass so that Harper inadvertently grabbed every Sask seat but Goodale's...
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unimaginative2
Guest
My NDPer friend says that they never estimated the effect that having a downtown Torontonian leading the NDP would have on their support in places like Saskatchewan. I can guarantee that was far more effective than any Liberal strategic voting campaign. Besides, nobody would vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out in a riding where the NDPer was the incumbent. As for strategic voting in Ontario... Yes, it might have cost the NDP a pair of seats. It also probably kept at least twenty seats away from the Conservatives.
That particular riding, though, surely had rather strong Liberal central party support judging by the candidate's last name...
That particular riding, though, surely had rather strong Liberal central party support judging by the candidate's last name...
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mpolo2
Guest
for what it is worth, I dont think of Rae's Ontario or Manitoba or Saskatchewan when I consider the NDP's record. Though when you think of it "strong economy" is not what jumps to mind when you think of of those three jurisdictions. (2 of the 3 are persistent 'have nots'.) No I think of the NDP's record through the nineties in BC. A series of governments that managed to ride out the longest economic expansion stumbling through a series of recessions. Taking a place that had enjoyed above average growth (from a national perspective) since joining the confederation. Both of their leaders left due to criminal investigations. For the first time in its provincial history more people left the province than to other provinces than arrived from others. It is easy to say Layton would spend money on things dear to us in the cities, but he has to be able to afford it, and how many of us can say our job is not contingent in any way on the strength of the broader economy. I think voters need to cognisant and willing to accept these trade-offs.
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Antiloop33rpm
Guest
An interesting poll from the CBC shows that while the Conservatives would probably get a minority government things are actually split very tightly. The Conservatives are at 33%, the Liberals at 27%, the NDP pulling up fast at 24%, and the Bloc at 11%. How would that split up in terms of seats. Well since the block is a provincial party and most people put them at around 65 seats that leaves 243 for the rest Canada. If you split it up between the numbers above that is about 95 seats for the conservatives, 78 seats for the Liberals, and 70 for the NDP. Now this just an impromptu analyzation but it gives a quick and dirty idea that things are getting very interesting and with everything so tight it is unlikely any party will make a move soon. Anyways. Here is the story and link to the site that has a break down of stats based on region.
www.cbc.ca/story/canada/n...50414.html
CBC poll shows snap election might not decide much
Last Updated Thu, 14 Apr 2005 22:05:50 EDT
CBC News
TORONTO - If an election were held today, there would be another minority government, likely Conservative, a poll by Environics for CBC News shows.
But a Conservative minority is not a certainty because the poll also shows widespread disillusionment among Canadians with politicians of all parties.
The poll shows that nationally, with undecided voters factored in, the Conservatives are supported by 33 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals by 27 per cent, the New Democratic Party by 24 per cent, and the Green party by two per cent. The Bloc Québécois has 11 per cent support nationally, but that becomes 51 per cent in the province of Quebec.
Donna Dasco, the vice-president of Environics research, said that "what really struck me is the big drop in Liberal support in a very short period."
"They have gone from the mid-30s, even the high-30s, in support to down to the high-20s in our poll."
In the battleground province of Ontario, the Liberals are still ahead with 37 per cent, the Conservatives are second at 32 per cent, and the NDP is at 25 per cent.
In Quebec, there is a three-way race for second place, with the Conservatives just ahead at 19 per cent, the Liberals at 15 per cent, and the NDP at 12 per cent.
Across the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 54 per cent, the NDP is second with 27 per cent and the Liberals trail with 16 per cent. In British Columbia the Conservatives at 38 per cent have a slight edge over the NDP at 31 per cent, with the Liberals at 26.
Disillusion with politics could become a factor in Quebec and, to a lesser extent, in other regions. Across the country, eight per cent say they will not vote, with that number as high as 16 per cent in Quebec, and nine per cent on the Prairies, six per cent in Atlantic Canada, four per cent in Ontario, and three per cent in B.C.
Take out both those who will not vote and those who say they are undecided and an election becomes a lot closer. With those figures the Conservatives are at 26 per cent across Canada, the Liberals at 21 per cent, and the NDP at 19.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois still leads with 38 per cent, the Conservatives are still ahead of the Liberals 14 per cent to 10, with the NDP at nine per cent.
When it comes to Canada's two big, vote-rich cities, the Conservatives don't do as well as the national figures suggest.
In the Greater Toronto area, the Liberals lead with 34 per cent, while the Conservatives at 22 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent are neck-and-neck, and within the margin of error. Four per cent of people in the GTA support the Greens, four per cent say they will not vote, and 12 per cent were undecided or did not answer.
In Montreal, the Bloc Québécois has 35 per cent of decided voters, the Liberals 17 per cent, the Conservatives 12 per cent, the NDP eight per cent and the Greens four. Nine per cent of the people in Montreal say they won't vote and 13 per cent were undecided or did not answer.
Dasco says the numbers indicate no party could form a majority government. "We would see a very fractious Parliament and a great difficulty, I would think, in forming any government that would last."
www.cbc.ca/story/canada/n...50414.html
CBC poll shows snap election might not decide much
Last Updated Thu, 14 Apr 2005 22:05:50 EDT
CBC News
TORONTO - If an election were held today, there would be another minority government, likely Conservative, a poll by Environics for CBC News shows.
But a Conservative minority is not a certainty because the poll also shows widespread disillusionment among Canadians with politicians of all parties.
The poll shows that nationally, with undecided voters factored in, the Conservatives are supported by 33 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals by 27 per cent, the New Democratic Party by 24 per cent, and the Green party by two per cent. The Bloc Québécois has 11 per cent support nationally, but that becomes 51 per cent in the province of Quebec.
Donna Dasco, the vice-president of Environics research, said that "what really struck me is the big drop in Liberal support in a very short period."
"They have gone from the mid-30s, even the high-30s, in support to down to the high-20s in our poll."
In the battleground province of Ontario, the Liberals are still ahead with 37 per cent, the Conservatives are second at 32 per cent, and the NDP is at 25 per cent.
In Quebec, there is a three-way race for second place, with the Conservatives just ahead at 19 per cent, the Liberals at 15 per cent, and the NDP at 12 per cent.
Across the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 54 per cent, the NDP is second with 27 per cent and the Liberals trail with 16 per cent. In British Columbia the Conservatives at 38 per cent have a slight edge over the NDP at 31 per cent, with the Liberals at 26.
Disillusion with politics could become a factor in Quebec and, to a lesser extent, in other regions. Across the country, eight per cent say they will not vote, with that number as high as 16 per cent in Quebec, and nine per cent on the Prairies, six per cent in Atlantic Canada, four per cent in Ontario, and three per cent in B.C.
Take out both those who will not vote and those who say they are undecided and an election becomes a lot closer. With those figures the Conservatives are at 26 per cent across Canada, the Liberals at 21 per cent, and the NDP at 19.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois still leads with 38 per cent, the Conservatives are still ahead of the Liberals 14 per cent to 10, with the NDP at nine per cent.
When it comes to Canada's two big, vote-rich cities, the Conservatives don't do as well as the national figures suggest.
In the Greater Toronto area, the Liberals lead with 34 per cent, while the Conservatives at 22 per cent and the NDP at 21 per cent are neck-and-neck, and within the margin of error. Four per cent of people in the GTA support the Greens, four per cent say they will not vote, and 12 per cent were undecided or did not answer.
In Montreal, the Bloc Québécois has 35 per cent of decided voters, the Liberals 17 per cent, the Conservatives 12 per cent, the NDP eight per cent and the Greens four. Nine per cent of the people in Montreal say they won't vote and 13 per cent were undecided or did not answer.
Dasco says the numbers indicate no party could form a majority government. "We would see a very fractious Parliament and a great difficulty, I would think, in forming any government that would last."
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spmarshall
Guest
or what it is worth, I dont think of Rae's Ontario or Manitoba or Saskatchewan when I consider the NDP's record. Though when you think of it "strong economy" is not what jumps to mind when you think of of those three jurisdictions. (2 of the 3 are persistent 'have nots'.) No I think of the NDP's record through the nineties in BC.
You can't blame the NDP for the fact that MB and SK are "have not" provinces - they are largely rural and agricultural, that have never had a huge industrial base. In case you didn't hear, Saskatchewan is a "have" province at the moment due to oil and gas resources (which is the only thing that set Alberta apart - Before Leduc, Alberta was as poor, or poorer than Saskatchewan or Manitoba, and Alberta has traditionally been Canada's most conservative province politically.
As for BC - they have a strnage pattern of swinging from the mid left to the mid to far right, where the NDP and the Social Credit (now BC Liberal, which has little to do with any other Liberal Party in Canada) have taken turns.
The Campbell Socred/Liberal government took power after an economic decline that again could hardly be blamed on the NDP - the BC economy is linked to the Asian economy more than any other province, so the "Asian Flu" hit BC hard. As well, the softwood lumber tarriffs came into effect too - how can you blame the NDP for that?
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adma
Guest
I'm puzzled by how low the Greens are in that CBC poll, considering how well they did the last election--well enough that the press now commonly bundles them w/NDP as left-leaning ballot-box bottom-feeders...
But interesting point about the Layton "urban strategy" backfiring; it's almost by an accident they should have anticipated (and, now, build upon) that the NDP under Layton attained as much hinterland strength as they did. Not only two seats in the North (and at least 3-4 more marginals), but the party kept its deposit in places where it oughtn't have (Northumberland; PE-Hastings) while losing it in one-time urban strongholds like Etobicoke-Lakeshore, despite whatever Layton-Miller coattails...
But interesting point about the Layton "urban strategy" backfiring; it's almost by an accident they should have anticipated (and, now, build upon) that the NDP under Layton attained as much hinterland strength as they did. Not only two seats in the North (and at least 3-4 more marginals), but the party kept its deposit in places where it oughtn't have (Northumberland; PE-Hastings) while losing it in one-time urban strongholds like Etobicoke-Lakeshore, despite whatever Layton-Miller coattails...
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unimaginative2
Guest
Actually, Alberta only became conservative when it got rich. When it was poor, they were very much in favour of redistributive economics. The federal bailout of the 1930s, for example. Even the massive federal subsidies for the oil industry in the 50s and 60s.
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cdl42
Guest
They may have been in favour of redistributive economics, but I think it's hard to doubt that on a social scale Alberta has always been highly conserative.
The meaning of "fiscal conservative" seems to change every 20 years anyway.
The meaning of "fiscal conservative" seems to change every 20 years anyway.
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bizorky
Guest
^Actually, that's a good point. It depends on the political/social philosophy lying behind those who employ the term. Conservatives like to think of themselves as fiscal conservatives. But early Social Democrats like the CCF and early NDP were fiscally conservative as well, but believed in redistributing and spending available funds on social needs.
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jamerinbow
Guest
or what it is worth, I dont think of Rae's Ontario or Manitoba or Saskatchewan when I consider the NDP's record. Though when you think of it "strong economy" is not what jumps to mind when you think of of those three jurisdictions. (2 of the 3 are persistent 'have nots'.) No I think of the NDP's record through the nineties in BC.
I would also point out that British Columbia is just about an exception to every rule in Canada. Where else in this country could the second most corrupt government in the history of Canada (Vander Zalm's Socreds) be followed by the most incompetent government in the history of Canada. The politics on the west coast are just _weird_. I think it's unlikely that an NDP government in Ottawa would follow that line.
It _might_ follow the line of the first six months of the Rae government, when their inexperience showed and they made a number of mistakes that set the tone for the years that followed. But they did the best job that was possible for the time and we survived Rae, just like we survived Harris. No reason to fear an strong NDP, I think; just as there's no reason to really fear a Conservative minority government.
...James
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BrianHawkins1
Guest
^
:lol re BC - so true.
"there's no reason to really fear a Conservative minority government"
Can't agree with that: Harper would've likely signed us up for missile 'defense', for instance. Or sent troops to Iraq, or whichever place next finds itself targeted by the Bushies. And still could.
:lol re BC - so true.
"there's no reason to really fear a Conservative minority government"
Can't agree with that: Harper would've likely signed us up for missile 'defense', for instance. Or sent troops to Iraq, or whichever place next finds itself targeted by the Bushies. And still could.
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afransen TO
Guest
Well, the opposition has ample opportunities to take down a government while the House is sitting. During the 3 or 4 month summer recess though, a lot of damage could be done.
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AlexisTO
Guest
"there's no reason to really fear a Conservative minority government"
Some of the lastest polls suggest the possiblity of a conservative majority. Now that is something to fear. Why? Because I think Ontario/ Toronto would suffer greatly under 4+ years of federal conservative rule. So would the Maritimes and Quebec. Even more than they do under the Liberals. The conservative stance on trade, environment, urban issues, medicare and the arts/ culture are rooted in the same place as Bush's America. A white males belief in 1950's values. They can deny this all they want, but it is their core, root belief. At least that is what I think.