denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
Just built it already. Enough.
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- Thread starter denfromoakvillemilton
- Start date
Juan_Lennon416
Senior Member
You have absolutely no idea as to what would happen if the PCs win. Stop jumping to conclusions!
rbt
Senior Member
While it's impossible to know for sure (I doubt Brown knows either), we do know that a chunk of the Harris cabinet is still within the party and in positions of influence and very likely to be in a Brown cabinet too. If MPPs like Jim Wilson (a candidate for finance minister) makes a demand for certain priorities in the budge, Brown will need to give it serious consideration regardless of his personal preference.
Second, Ontario's operating budget is balanced. The capital budget, however, is still billions of debt per year. IMO, this is a good thing given low rates, high construction inflation rates, and reasonable ROI of many projects. Many PC members don't agree.
All that said we also know that Brown has rarely said anything negative about the cost of RER or transit expansion; in fact many of his comments have been around the slow pace of progress which indicates a willingness to continue spending.
A "rethink" or pause to re-prioritize unfunded projects seems extremely likely. In fact, it seems likely even if Liberals win.
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lead82
Senior Member
Of course no one knows for sure. We do know that Horwath is unlikely to win a majority as the NDP is stuck in low popularity. They could hold balance of power in a minority government.
The PC government since 1995 has not supported transit at all. That may change of course but I can easily see no funding coming from a PC government for DRL and certainly can see LRT/ Smart Track funding cancelled. RER may survive in parts but electrification may disappear or PCs do damage to Toronto by merging TTC with Metrolinx or absorbing rail lines into it as Hudak suggested in 2014.
Only time will tell what PCs will offer but I am pessimistic.
OneCity
Senior Member
It really all depends on how much ground they want to gain in Toronto and any specific area within. I understand why some still connect the current PC's to the Harris PC's, but that not in anyway a reality.
This is probably the best opportunity the PC's will ever have to change the voting landscape of the City of Toronto. They have already shown a solid commitment to gain the Scarborough voter and while the subway(s) seem to be quite safe under this admin, the future LRT's across the entire City remain big question marks at this time. All indications is they will take a "Ford" style approach to transit building. ie) Subways first (DRL(s), SSE, Sheppard(s)). And reality is these projects are where majority of tranit support in the City of Toronto resides.
No one knows for sure, as there is also solid support for the LRT projects currently tabled and the cost to vote ratio is pretty good for these lines. But the DRL, SSE and Sheppard have far more support then the Eglinton East/West, and Waterfront LRT's in the overall landscape of voting. This may or may not put them on the back burner and surely its all speculation at this point but its possible the full Sheppard subway could be bumped to become a next wave priority under this admin of they are taking the Ford approach.
We will likely never see a Harris style PC government in this Province on our lifetime. Hudak was the litmus test, last straw and if they ever try again once in power, they will be one term and never seen for another few decades at best. The nice thing about this changing PC climate is that the Liberals will now have some pressure to pull out the big promises to stay in power and if the PC's do happen to win I just don't see them doing any harmful damage to current overall plans and only shifting the priority of future plans and the local LRT lines would be much easier to address in the future than hesitating further on the subway lines. Guilty until proven innocent, but I'm really not as pessimistic in this climate.
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Fritter
Active Member
amnesiajune
Senior Member
We wouldn't need a subway line since we'd have flying pigs that everyone can ride.
rbt
Senior Member
Do explain in detail exactly how that works. Please feel free to use accounting terms that I probably don't understand (since I'm not an accountant); I'm willing to do some research for this one.
Keep in mind those sales reduced assets and debt (funds went straight to debt) and, as far as the provinces budget is concerned, were not considered income and did not go to normal operations. The accounting processes in use under Harris were eliminated.
Also keep in mind I explained exactly how it isn't balanced a couple of words later. If you read it, you would have had something real to throw at the current government instead of made up FUD.
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OneCity
Senior Member
I get the possible tie in of the Sheppard subway with the PC's. But I think this discussion is getting away from the Sheppard subway. General budgets and platform prediction might be better rebutted under a thread in Politics http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/forums/politics-toronto-issues.7/.
crs1026
Superstar
Building subways is the one thing that many downtowners, suburbanites, and even 905ers can agree on. To the extent that Ontarians outside the GTA can swallow spending money on Toronto, many do understand that need (even smalltowners who hate coming to Toronto will tell you that they rode the subway - once).
What that tells me is that Brown is likely to be philosophically OK with a Sheppard subway extension, and likely suspicious about one of those wierd light rail thingamajimmies, as his party will characterise it. I'm not predicting any more sophistication than that.
This is not to say he will actually fund it - his party will be fiscally cautious initially and will impose a pause on all capital projects initially. But they will allow it to sit on the list of things to do "down the road when there is money". And maybe remind anyone who listens that the people who got a subway built up there in the first place were Conservatives, and it was Conservatives who have kept the Sheppard subway extension alive in the meanwhile.
Shovels in the ground? Likely not in my lifetime.
- Paul
What that tells me is that Brown is likely to be philosophically OK with a Sheppard subway extension, and likely suspicious about one of those wierd light rail thingamajimmies, as his party will characterise it. I'm not predicting any more sophistication than that.
This is not to say he will actually fund it - his party will be fiscally cautious initially and will impose a pause on all capital projects initially. But they will allow it to sit on the list of things to do "down the road when there is money". And maybe remind anyone who listens that the people who got a subway built up there in the first place were Conservatives, and it was Conservatives who have kept the Sheppard subway extension alive in the meanwhile.
Shovels in the ground? Likely not in my lifetime.
- Paul
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
"Pause" is just another way of saying "cancel"
Rainforest
Senior Member
Though if Brown is willing to support subway construction, he'd better direct the funding to the Relief line and take it into the inner suburbs. That line would be just as popular with his voter base, but with a bonus of 4X greater ridership.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I am really surprised that people here aren't politically savvy sometimes. The PCs of the 90s crapped on transit because there was really no electoral gains to be made supporting transit. These days? That's not the case. The PCs lost seats in Ottawa when Hudak refused to commit to Phase II and that interview went viral enough to sink their candidates there. They had candidates trying to backpedal from what their leader said.
They've learned their lesson. And they won't make that mistake again.
That doesn't mean they'll support all transit. They'll support transit with a political payoff. And since downtown Toronto will vote PC when hell freezes over, I think the DRL is toast. I think Sheppard gets an extension to Agincourt. GO RER goes ahead with prioritization for lines that can be finished quickly or have easy electoral payoff. Electrification is probably toast. High capital spending for operational costs savings that materialize well after they are out of power. I have a feeling the Hurontario LRT is at risk. There really won't be substantial shovels in the ground. Ditto Hamilton. Wherever, support for LRT isn't very solid or deep, there's an opportunity to cancel it. Hamilton and Peel Region aren't as vehement about their LRT plans as Ottawa was.
Back on Sheppard. The Tories aren't stupid. They know that building the subway to STC would be super expensive. And not achieve much. But with GO RER on the way, Agincourt is a perfect target. I could even see a push to go Westward to get to Downsview. Would help them pick up some seats in North York in subsequent elections.
They've learned their lesson. And they won't make that mistake again.
That doesn't mean they'll support all transit. They'll support transit with a political payoff. And since downtown Toronto will vote PC when hell freezes over, I think the DRL is toast. I think Sheppard gets an extension to Agincourt. GO RER goes ahead with prioritization for lines that can be finished quickly or have easy electoral payoff. Electrification is probably toast. High capital spending for operational costs savings that materialize well after they are out of power. I have a feeling the Hurontario LRT is at risk. There really won't be substantial shovels in the ground. Ditto Hamilton. Wherever, support for LRT isn't very solid or deep, there's an opportunity to cancel it. Hamilton and Peel Region aren't as vehement about their LRT plans as Ottawa was.
Back on Sheppard. The Tories aren't stupid. They know that building the subway to STC would be super expensive. And not achieve much. But with GO RER on the way, Agincourt is a perfect target. I could even see a push to go Westward to get to Downsview. Would help them pick up some seats in North York in subsequent elections.
amnesiajune
Senior Member
Transit expansion froze in the 1990s because ridership was collapsing. It went from 463 million/year in 1988 to 372 million/year in 1996. The proposed expansions in the 1980s were a response to the system being at capacity. When the system was suddenly well under capacity, nobody saw much of a point to building any of the expansions, but they especially didn't see any point in building the politically toxic Relief Line.
It wasn't about politics or conservatism - the Liberals and the NDP were just as uninterested in funding new transit lines, and city council wasn't terribly enthusiastic either. Even during Miller's time in office, there wasn't much interest in increasing subway capacity. Transit City didn't provide any sort of overcrowding relief for the Yonge line. It was just about increasing the speed and quality of service on priority transit corridors. The TTC's weekday ridership didn't match 1988 levels until after Miller left office.
I'm not sure what you're talking about here - no party has lost or gained any seat in Ottawa since 2003, when two Liberals beat PC incumbents.
