Towered
Superstar
I'd love to see Ukraine blanket Moscow with a drone swarm during that "parade". It would be crushing for morale.
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- Thread starter Towered
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Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
I doubt Ukraine can pull off something like that. Mostly because Moscow airspace is probably one of the most defended in the world at the moment. A hundred of known echeloned air defense positions mapped by OSINT analysts in and around Moscow:
Now, even with all of those, yesterday Ukraine rehearsed their contribution to the upcoming Victory Day Charade:
Not sure how many attack drones were in this wave, but one of them made it to within 6.5 km of the Red Square, only to be stopped by a high-rise building.
So, to your point, I don't think an entire "swarm" of drones can make it all the way to the parade. Most will be shot down. But a couple of them might get through. That's still going to be enough to cause morale-crushing consequences though.
But then there is another issue: timing. Launching the drones from Ukraine, it will take them hours to get to Moscow, giving Russians plenty of advanced warning. They are keeping the time of the parade secret at the moment, but even if Ukraine somehow knew the exact time, Russians could just postpone it, knowing an attack wave is on the way.
So, slim chance of seeing long-range attack drones striking the actual parade.
That's why I was hoping for specops FPVs. You need a couple of drone teams renting a couple of apartments somewhere in Moscow. A few kilometers away from the red square will do just fine. Anything with a window from which to launch a drone will do. Equip them with the latest and greatest in Ukrainian fiberoptic FPV technology and you have yourself a way to slip past air defenses (too small to detect) and electronic warfare (can't be jammed due to being controlled by the fiberoptic cable). As long as no one cuts the fiberoptic cable during the couple of minutes flight time to the Red Square, you have yourself a way to eliminate a high-value target taking the stage at the parade.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The Russian people are getting restless. Memories of 1917?
fortune.com
As economic despair mounts, Russian official admits the country has had enough of Putin's war on Ukraine. 'We can’t even take one region' | Fortune
“The overall mood is that’s enough already; you’ve been fighting for long enough.”
Richard White
Senior Member
The Russian people are getting restless. Memories of 1917?
As economic despair mounts, Russian official admits the country has had enough of Putin's war on Ukraine. 'We can’t even take one region' | Fortune
“The overall mood is that’s enough already; you’ve been fighting for long enough.”
I was reading on CNN that Putin is intentionally limiting the Victory Day parade due to fears of a coup.
See here: (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/04/europe/putin-russia-security-intelligence-intl)
There is concern that some scorned government officials have loyalists in the military who may act upon perceived dissatisfaction with the current government. They don't want heavy arms near the Kremlin for fear that it may be used against them.
Putin sold the Ukraine war to the people as a two week special military operation and now it has been going on for almost 5 years. In that time, their economy has tanked and their loved ones have been conscripted to fight in a never ending war.
If this does not end soon, Putin will need to be the one staying away from windows.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I wish we'd all ramp up both military and economic aid to Ukraine. Aside from weapons, we need to make sure that Ukraine never has a lower GDP per capita than Russia again.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
The big shock for Russia will be when the war is over, and the nation's workforce has been reduced by millions of KIA, wounded and fled abroad, and there is no money to rebuild anything. By the early 2040s Ukraine will be a rockstar economy on way to EU membership, while its Russian neighbour will be in the stoneage.
Richard White
Senior Member
If I recall that is what did in the USSR. They were essentially bankrupt after the Afghanistan War and relentless military spending.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Russia has the population size of Mexico, the total GDP of Italy, but the total military spending of nearly 60% of China's (2nd only to the US). How does anyone in Russia think that's sustainable?
Richard White
Senior Member
It's not but it will take a full-on coup to change anything.
Not something like in 1993 or 1991 but more akin to the end of WW2 where Mussolini was strung up or in 1917 when the Tsar was ended.
Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
Kinda hard to do when Ukraine's starting point is 1/3 or Russia's GDP/capita (Ukraine sitting at ~$6K versus $18K for Russia). It will take a while for Ukraine to even catch up. But if EU pumps in money for the reconstruction once the war is over with stipulations of economic and political reforms and fighting corruption (Marshall Plan style), then they can get there.
I recall an interview with Gorbachev where he insinuated that USSR planned economy was over 70% military-industrial complex by the end of 80s. Simply unsustainable. Afghanistan was a factor, but USSR was falling off the cliff even without that war. The Cold War arms race with Americans was always going to bankrupt them sooner or later. The fact that the US also negotiated with OPEC to artificially decrease oil prices for most of the 80s also played into driving USSR economy into the ground.
Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
They have spent all of their sovereign national fund by the end of 2025 to sustain this. They would have had to cut the spending (or take on hugely expensive debt) this year if it were not for Trump's Operation Epic Fail. The oil revenues are enough for them to keep going for now. Fresh off the press:
Russia Boosts Rainy-Day Fund for First Time in Almost a Year
Russia resumed purchases of foreign currency and gold for its National Wellbeing Fund for the first time since June last year, as a surge in oil prices driven by th…
financialpost.com
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
In 1917 the Tsar was quickly replaced by new autocrats. The Russian people have zero experience of liberal democracy. Each strongman, autocratic regime has been replaced by another. If Putin is deposed, it will be by the military's hardliners, not by the people, leading to something like Myanmar. I wonder if the Tsar's secret police, the Okhrana in 1917 simply swapped into Cheka uniforms and carried on, much as many Gestapo joined the Stasi after 1945. The challenge for whatever regime replaces Putin will be keeping the eastern territories, including Yakutia, Buryatia and Tuva, plus most of Siberia from breaking away and declaring independence. Closer to home, I expect Georgia to take back the territories held by Russians.
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Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
Yep, unfortunately that's exactly it. It's going to be someone like Nikolai Patrushev or even worse.
The unrest that is growing in Russia (both at the top and at the grassroots level) has nothing to do with them regretting the war. They've been turned into a hateful, militarist, fascist society. Their only regret is that they're not winning and not doing enough to destroy Ukraine. That doesn't bode well for prospects of them ending the war any time soon even if Putin is somehow overthrown.
Full Metal Junkie
Senior Member
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I'm reminded of the British Army's trick of putting a coin at the bottom of a tankard of ale. If the drinker touched the King's money he was considered bounty paid and enlisted. Wikipedia says it's a fable since the Royal Navy could press any man it wanted, but NOT so the Army. That's why in the days before glass cups the tankards had glass bottoms.