[darth_freeman]

This is actually a fairly good point - I see the 413 creating some major weaving issues on the 401 east of the 404/413 interchange. The 413 will merge with the 401 only a short distance before the 401 splits into the collector / express - I can see a lot of cars weaving over to make it into the 401 express lanes. Not a good design at all.

Ideally the express would run right to the 413 ramps before merging to a single carriageway under the 407 only. Traffic levels on the 401 through the interchange would be substantially lower on either side, as a very large volume of vehicles will be interchanging with the 413 itself.

1. There is more distance between the 413 EB merge and collector/express start than you might think. Plenty of weaving distance room (about 2.5km).
2. Volume from 413WB to 401EB is relatively low as you might expect.
3. As you mentioned, a lot of 401EB traffic will now be going to 413 EB instead, so weaving conflicts are even less of an issue.

 

[Civdis]

With another Ford Majority, I assume this project will be full speed ahead? Is there a schedule for completion?

 

[Wm Perkins Bull]

With another Ford Majority, I assume this project will be full speed ahead? Is there a schedule for completion?

It has an estimated date of 20-eventually (probably), as there is still a fair amount of design work to be done before construction can start in earnest. Perhaps they will be done with design work and have real construction underway by the the next election.

 

[MichaelGeorge]

With another Ford Majority, I assume this project will be full speed ahead? Is there a schedule for completion?

Doug Ford said construction will start in 2025, my assumption is that it would take 10-20 years to complete, based on current construction speeds

 

[nfitz]

Doug Ford said construction will start in 2025, my assumption is that it would take 10-20 years to complete, based on current construction speeds

Which non-downtown expressway project took 10 to 20 years? The 407/412/418 east extension project was about 50 km. Construction started in 2012 on Phase 1, and in 2015 on Phase 2. The first 31-km (Phase 1 - 22 km of 407 and the 412) opened in 2016 (which had slipped from 2015) and the remaining 19 km opened in 2019.

This is all a rural area. It's not like they have to spend 2-years moving hundreds of kilometres of sewers and other utilities first.

The 413 length is about the same as the 407/412/418 project. Both have 4 or 5 complex expressway-expressway interchanges.

What have you heard that would make construction last 10 years, let alone 20 years?

At the same time though, I doubt that construction will start in 2025 - there's still no RFQ as far as I know. Looking at the last 4 major expressway projects (407 Phase 1, 407 Phase 2, 427 extension, 401 widening in the west), the projects took about 2 (and 2.5 in the case of the 401) years to go from RFQ to construction.

But under Ford (and I assume a more industry-led design - I haven't been following too closely), the twinning of the QEW bridge over the Welland canal, the RFQ was issued in 2022, and they don't plan to execute the contract until December 2026! So 2027 construction at best for the QEW.

On that schedule, I don't know how 413 construction would start until the late 2020s at least. Where did you see that it would start this year?

 

[ericmacm]

One of the best comparisons we have right now for greenfield freeway construction in Ontario is the HWY 427 extension project that wrapped up in 2021. This was 6.6 km of new freeway and 8 km of freeway widening. From construction initiation to completion, the project took around 4.5 years. Moving from RFQ to construction took 2 years.

Here is my guess - we will see RFQs go out for HWY 413 in mid-late 2025 or early 2026. I suspect they will break it up into multiple phases, with the HWY 401 to 410 section and HWY 410 to 427 sections going out first, and the HWY 427 to 400 section going out a bit later, considering the environmental considerations for the Humber River, each being done by a different team. I see construction starting anywhere from late 2026 to mid 2027, depending on how fast they get the RFQ process completed, but believe this project will have much higher priority for construction initiation than almost any other transportation project in the province. Depending on how many teams they have building the freeway (52 km in total), I could see it taking 5 to 10 years from construction initiation to completion.

 

[Steve X]

One of the best comparisons we have right now for greenfield freeway construction in Ontario is the HWY 427 extension project that wrapped up in 2021. This was 6.6 km of new freeway and 8 km of freeway widening. From construction initiation to completion, the project took around 4.5 years. Moving from RFQ to construction took 2 years.

Here is my guess - we will see RFQs go out for HWY 413 in mid-late 2025 or early 2026. I suspect they will break it up into multiple phases, with the HWY 401 to 410 section and HWY 410 to 427 sections going out first, and the HWY 427 to 400 section going out a bit later, considering the environmental considerations for the Humber River, each being done by a different team. I see construction starting anywhere from late 2026 to mid 2027, depending on how fast they get the RFQ process completed, but believe this project will have much higher priority for construction initiation than almost any other transportation project in the province. Depending on how many teams they have building the freeway (52 km in total), I could see it taking 5 to 10 years from construction initiation to completion.

Construction only takes 3-4 years if they are willing to spend. The liberals did their stall tactics which saw the 410 extension take a whole decade. They did the stall tactics on the Crosstown pushing the project from the "planned" 5-7 years to 11 years "PLANNED" plus delays. The 404 extension also saw the same stall tactics with bridges first and the roadway later, a delay occurred and ultimately it took 6 years. The Kitchener to Guelph highway 7 expressway is planned to use the stall tactic too with bridges first and roadway later till it got put on hold by Ford. Since those two cities went with Green instead of PC, Ford doesn't have a priority to deliver this project.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Highway 407 East was an almost identical project scale to the 413. Each phase took about 4 years to build, but it was split into 2 phases.

I could see the 413 being split into two phases - 410 to 400 and 410 to 401, or something.

The "Early construction" packages which are supposed to go out this year are likely largely relating to things like clearing of the corridor (demolition, tree removal), and perhaps a few bridge contracts going out. I suspect the longest lead time work will be around the ends of the highway, specifically the 401/413 interchange which will require some extensive staging elements to construct.

The previous provincial Liberals absolutely loved to promise big on infrastructure than just trickle the funding out very very slowly.. the 404 north extension moved at a crawling pace too.

Ford hasn't been much better on many of his highway promises either - the 417 extension is nowhere close to happening despite it being a key election promise of Ford's 7 years ago for example.. but he has moved quickly on his transit spending promises.

 

[MichaelGeorge]

Which non-downtown expressway project took 10 to 20 years? The 407/412/418 east extension project was about 50 km. Construction started in 2012 on Phase 1, and in 2015 on Phase 2. The first 31-km (Phase 1 - 22 km of 407 and the 412) opened in 2016 (which had slipped from 2015) and the remaining 19 km opened in 2019.

This is all a rural area. It's not like they have to spend 2-years moving hundreds of kilometres of sewers and other utilities first.

The 413 length is about the same as the 407/412/418 project. Both have 4 or 5 complex expressway-expressway interchanges.

What have you heard that would make construction last 10 years, let alone 20 years?

At the same time though, I doubt that construction will start in 2025 - there's still no RFQ as far as I know. Looking at the last 4 major expressway projects (407 Phase 1, 407 Phase 2, 427 extension, 401 widening in the west), the projects took about 2 (and 2.5 in the case of the 401) years to go from RFQ to construction.

But under Ford (and I assume a more industry-led design - I haven't been following too closely), the twinning of the QEW bridge over the Welland canal, the RFQ was issued in 2022, and they don't plan to execute the contract until December 2026! So 2027 construction at best for the QEW.

On that schedule, I don't know how 413 construction would start until the late 2020s at least. Where did you see that it would start this year?

I found that in this video, near the end (2:10)

 

[MichaelGeorge]

y are willing to spend. The liberals did their stall tactics which saw the 410 extension take a whole decade. They did the stall tactics on the Crosstown pushing the project from the "planned" 5-7 years to 11 years "PLANNED" plus dela

404 took 5 years to widen by 1 lane, about 10km. Thats why my estimate is 10-20 years for the 413

 

[nfitz]

404 took 5 years to widen by 1 lane, about 10km. Thats why my estimate is 10-20 years for the 413

The various on-lane 401 expansions from Metro Toronto to Cobourg never took that long (or took 50 years, depending on how you look at it). Surely a function of budgeting rather than construction.

Why not compare to similar projects - like the 407 extension?

 

[MichaelGeorge]

The various on-lane 401 expansions from Metro Toronto to Cobourg never took that long (or took 50 years, depending on how you look at it). Surely a function of budgeting rather than construction.

Why not compare to similar projects - like the 407 extension?

construction is really slow, because of many reasons, many politics, and not enough workers

 

[nfitz]

construction is really slow, because of many reasons, many politics, and not enough workers

Why not compare to other recent similar projects?

I see no basis to claim 10 to 20 years for construction.

 

[Steve X]

construction is really slow, because of many reasons, many politics, and not enough workers

The 407ETR can widen a lane in 3 months. So that's not true that they lack workers.

Ontario doesn't lack skilled workers in road construction unlike subway tunneling. It's just that the previous government paid for 1 crew to do everything slowly instead of 10 crews to finish the work quickly.

 

[Civdis]

Sorry if this has been asked before, but does anyone see Highway 413 being extended east past the 400, becoming yet another "bypass"? A quick look at the lands to the east appears to show the possibility to extend this highway to 404 and beyond through undeveloped lands.